ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4641 Postby Full8s » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:41 pm

Oh I read the messages. With family in the area, I cheer every bit of good news, such as Milton sucking dry air, Bon Appetit. 24 hours ago when the pressure was in the 890s and it was a Cat 5, no one was thinking of a possible Cat 2 landfall. True, the winds are not the problem, the surge is and the damage is set in stone.


That's not true. Lots of people/pros still followed the pattern, and believed it would still possibly weaken to a 2. Blanket statements are no good.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4642 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:44 pm

Looks like the inner eyewall has just about given up and is being absorbed into the outer.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4643 Postby FLLurker32 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:46 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Wow hope no one is craving Waffle house, they closed everthing on the gulf coast it looks like.
even stuff no longer in the cone


The cone depicts where the eye is expected to track. Impacts will be across the state in areas well outside of the cone.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4644 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:46 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Looks like the inner eyewall has just about given up and is being absorbed into the outer.

With that and the baroclinic enhancement we may get a burst before landfall
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4645 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:47 pm

Heading between last two recon's fixes shows it took a nice NE heading, near 45 deg, straight NE job.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4646 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:48 pm

I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4647 Postby aaaaaa » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:48 pm

tolakram wrote:When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Otis ?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4648 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:50 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?



pretty much on track
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4649 Postby Mike33534 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:50 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?

Last jog was to the east and putting it on the NHC line, however it could jog back north since it's wobbling
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4650 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:50 pm

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?


North, but he is starting to move right

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4651 Postby johngaltfla » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:51 pm

NDG wrote:Heading between last two recon's fixes shows it took a nice NE heading, near 45 deg, straight NE job.


It's running out of real estate for that turn towards me. Tampa stay vigilant.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4652 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:53 pm

xironman wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:I can’t really tell right now. Is Milton on track, east/south of track, or west/north of track?


North, but he is starting to move right

https://i.imgur.com/IzSX4Xn.png


Now running parallel to the forecast track. The distance with the forecast track isn't increasing anymore, but it's also not decreasing yet.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4653 Postby Frank P » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:53 pm

Latest
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4654 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:54 pm

NDG wrote:Heading between last two recon's fixes shows it took a nice NE heading, near 45 deg, straight NE job.


I left off that it has significantly slowed down, now averaging 13 mph during the past 3 hours, down from almost 18 mph earlier this morning.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4655 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:54 pm

Depending upon whether I'm using radar or satellite, I get about 55 deg at 12 kts with radar and 51 deg at 13 kts with satellite. That points it south of Tampa Bay. Looking terrible on satellite now. Recon is finding a lot lower wind than yesterday. The dry air intrusion and weakening eyewall may keep those stronger winds elevated. Come on, dry air and shear!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4656 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:58 pm

So far only 80 knts smrf in northwest quad and 81 knots
Southeast quad 115 knts and 80 knts smrf

This suggest winds aint mixing down in these two quads.

Of course the northeast in earlier passes is stronger but only suggest 110 knts based on flight level and smrf.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4657 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:59 pm

St. Petersburg is reporting an ENE wind at 35 kts gusting 45 kts. That's blowing bay water out of the bay. Much better than a SW wind.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4658 Postby kevin » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:00 pm

Sligthly NW of forecast in the new 2pm NHC update.

Reality 02:00PM = 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W)
Forecast 02:00 PM = 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
Last edited by kevin on Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4659 Postby piffer28 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:00 pm

My sister sent a video. Winds are already picking up north of Tampa (Wesley Chapel area).
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4660 Postby Soluna16 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 1:01 pm

There are so many tornadoes already, insane.
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Hurricane Experience: Charley 2004, Frances 2004, Jeanne 2004, Matthew 2016, Irma 2017, Dorian 2019, Ian 2022, Nicole 2022, Helene 2024, Milton 2024


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