WPAC: MAN-YI - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Every slight deviation in movement will affect location of the landfall.

Pepito looks like the real deal, no way this doesn't reach Cat 5 given the favourable environment it is in.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yea... he has that look

[underthwx]

The EC-AIFS is tracking this close to or over the capital region.

Basically nearer to Metro Manila?

Yes, traditional models might be playing catch up on track...

Thanks Hayabusa.

[mrbagyo]

I expect a full CDG cloud cover later this evening

[AnmlstcBhvr]

Yea... he has that look

https://i.ibb.co/SQrMrfg/f46021c3-4a5e-438c-a3a3-ecd99dafbdf3.jpg

I was wondering how wide is its coverage, sir?

[mrbagyo]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Man-yi still has over a day left before landfall, at least if it misses Catanduanes, and it's likely to hit 100 kt in the next advisory. That said, I'd say the ceiling may be higher than JTWC's 125 kt. It's now a matter of time before we see our season's sixth super typhoon, and third super typhoon landfall in a month --- unless an EWRC comes to its way or if Catanduanes puts a halt.

Hoping Luzon's eastern seaboard is taking serious measures at the moment.

[Hayabusa]

It's getting there just need to clear out that ragged eye

[Hayabusa]

ADT stopped updating since 1100z

2024NOV15 093000 5.3 964.3 97.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -65.71 -70.08 UNIFRM N/A 57.8 11.18 -129.88 ARCHER HIM-9 18.2
2024NOV15 100000 5.3 964.3 97.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -62.81 -69.95 UNIFRM N/A 71.5 11.21 -129.77 ARCHER HIM-9 18.3
2024NOV15 104000 5.3 964.2 97.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF -43.81 -67.86 UNIFRM N/A 71.5 11.37 -129.59 ARCHER HIM-9 18.6
2024NOV15 110000 5.3 964.2 97.2 4.5 5.0 5.5 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -21.65 -66.54 EYE -99 IR 71.5 11.38 -129.50 ARCHER HIM-9 18.6
Utilizing history file /home/misc/ADTV9.1/scripts/history/25W.ODT
Successfully completed listing

[mrbagyo]

12z Legaspi Sounding

[aspen]

It’s had a great structure since yesterday afternoon (US Eastern time), but it hasn’t been intensifying as fast as I thought it would have been. Probably a high C3 or low C4 by now. Hurricane models show the potential for some weakening in the last bit before landfall, which is good, but unfortunately it’s yet another strong typhoon landfall for the northern Philippines.

[Hayabusa]

It’s had a great structure since yesterday afternoon (US Eastern time), but it hasn’t been intensifying as fast as I thought it would have been. Probably a high C3 or low C4 by now. Hurricane models show the potential for some weakening in the last bit before landfall, which is good, but unfortunately it’s yet another strong typhoon landfall for the northern Philippines.

Though right now it looks like it might try again to really RI, still has 17-18 hours left if it makes landfall over Catanduanes first...

[Hayabusa]

JTWC and JMA 18Z

25W MAN-YI 241115 1800 12.0N 127.8E WPAC 110 952

T2424(Man-yi)
Issued at 2024/11/15 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 11/15 18 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N12°00′ (12.0°)
E127°50′ (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E390 km (210 NM)
W280 km (150 NM)

[underthwx]

Every slight deviation in movement will affect location of the landfall.

Pepito looks like the real deal, no way this doesn't reach Cat 5 given the favourable environment it is in.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Sy552.gif

Ugh to that. I'm worried about my family big time. I have been thru the worst a cyclone can deliver, and take away, I should be there to help them manage thru this dang cyclone. Yall please forgive me if I seem biased about my concern for my people there, I'm very concerned about everyone in harms wayy. This cyclone means business, so I feel uneasy not being there to use my experience with events like Pepito. They are experienced as well with typhoons, it's a natural part of life there, living in the impact zones of the Phillipines, but I worry about everyone anyways
Thanks to Hayabusa and the crew there covering the WPAC, I am grateful to yall for information regarding this cyclone, and all the others that have threatened my people, and my many bros there. And I am aware that some of yall 2K members are in harms way as well, but yall are still on top of this emergency, for that, I respect yall, Storm 2K is fortunate to count you among its ranks. Peace yall.

[doomhaMwx]

Drifting buoy "5201831" in the Philippine Sea recorded an MSLP of 959.9 mb near (or inside?) the eye at 14Z.

[aspen]

JTWC and JMA 18Z

25W MAN-YI 241115 1800 12.0N 127.8E WPAC 110 952

T2424(Man-yi)
Issued at 2024/11/15 19:05 UTC
Analysis at 11/15 18 UTC
Grade TY
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N12°00′ (12.0°)
E127°50′ (127.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 130 km (70 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E390 km (210 NM)
W280 km (150 NM)

More JTWC lowballing. While the eye is still somewhat ragged and not fully cleared out yet, there’s no a full W ring with some CMG, so something like 120-125 kt seems more likely.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

00z intensity will now be interesting

TPPN12 PGTW 152056

A. TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI)

B. 15/2030Z

C. 12.27N

D. 127.32E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.
MET YIELDS A 5.5. PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1710Z 11.90N 128.00E AMS2


LINDGREN

[aspen]

00z intensity will now be interesting

TPPN12 PGTW 152056

A. TYPHOON 25W (MAN-YI)

B. 15/2030Z

C. 12.27N

D. 127.32E

E. ONE/GK2A

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0.
MET YIELDS A 5.5. PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1710Z 11.90N 128.00E AMS2


LINDGREN

At the rate it’s improving, we may get T7.0 or even a T7.5 at 00z. Getting close to a thick CMG ring now. If that holds with a clear eye, it’s an easy T7.5.

[aspen]

Positive eye temps with a full W ring. This is a Super Typhoon. May or may not be a Cat 5, winds may still be catching up with its rapid structural improvement.