ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[KirbyDude25]

This appears to be the closest buoy to 92L with it at 28.9N, 78.5W or 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral. So, perhaps WSW of 92L’s center: does this tell us anything?

Station 41010
NDBC
Location: 28.878N 78.467W
Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 04:30:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 3.9 kt gusting to 5.8 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.07 in
Air Temperature: 79.2 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 80.6 F

It's likely too far away to get much info about 92L's structure; the storm is just too tiny for that. It does show that the sea-level humidity is high and the water is warm at that location, though I don't know how relevant that is

[Nuno]

I don't see why this can't be designated as a PTC at 5am. It's going to move over the gulf stream, low shear environment. Why not be better safe than sorry and get the word out tomorrow morning for a region that doesn't often experience strengthening (albeit weaker) cyclones often?

[Blown Away]

PTC/TD/TS possible now IMO…

[chaser1]

I have to believe that everything that we are seeing must be entirely aloft. As impressive as 92L appears, NHC must have quite the level of confidence to have "not" issued a PTC. At this stage with the primary convective mass estimated to be near the coastline by daybreak, there is little point to issue Watches or Warnings. Maybe we'll all be surprised with a rapid warming of the convective feature and the entire satellite presentation simply going to crap. I'm in awe of the fact that even meso scale models simply do not see this as any kind of significant surface feature.

Maybe the saying is true. It may look like a duck but if it doesn't walk, squalk, or smell like a duck.... it's probably not a duck

[ElectricStorm]

Looks better than I expected it to, I think the chances of a quick TD/TS before landfall are increasing. Interested to see what recon finds in the morning.

[Woofde]

PTC/TD/TS possible now IMO…

It certainly has that TS look to it. It's hard to tell what's happening below at the surface, though. I guess we will see when recon arrives in the morning if 92L doesn't change/degrade by then.

We are starting to get into radar range now.

[ChrisH-UK]

92L looks to have a decent outflow aided by upper level winds, convection might be dropping a bit But it should be moving over the gulf stream soon and with the heat probably intensify a bit before landfall.

GOES-16 CIRA Snow/Cloud product - https://col.st/XLafW

[Nimbus]

Convection waned a little over the morning hours but the new burst blown west of center looks impressive.
Its a good training mission for recon.

[jlauderdal]

Convection waned a little over the morning hours but the new burst blown west of center looks impressive.
Its a good training mission for recon.

At least it's relatively close to Biloxi. Soon, we will be looking back at these weak systems and wishing for weak systems, getting some good mdr signals; the July lull might not be much this year.

[kevin]

About 1.5 - 2 hours until recon gets there. 92L looks very healthy right now with consistent convection over the center. I expect recon to find a tiny TD/TS.

[GCANE]

Its sitting in 2500 CAPE air with a dryline right on the coast.
The dryline should fire up additional convection, but the minimal CAPE should limit tropical development.

[BobHarlem]

Recon is getting around in there now, there is decent convection on the south side. Looks like Daytona Beach north to Jacksonville is the area that's going to get most of "the stuff" from this one later today, but any coastal flooding/surge probably limited to Jacksonville/GA. Even then won't be much because this is Tiny B.

[zzzh]

Recon found a well defined center. Winds are TD level.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of showers and thunderstorms persists with a low
pressure system located around 150 miles east-southeast of
Jacksonville, Florida. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is currently
investigating the system to determine if the low has a well-defined
surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally
conducive for some additional development, and this system could
become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to reach
the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia by tonight, and
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1804123413948096861

[NDG]

Much better defined LLC this morning, most of the convection to the south & west of it.

[kevin]

Recon measured 37 kt SFMR as well as 37 kt Est. Sfc. Wind. Peak FL winds so far are 29 kt, but they were flying at the surface (500 ft above the surface so FL winds are basically the same as surface wind). The seem to be climbing again based on the last recon data.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon seems to indicate to me that we have a TD. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade at 11am, perhaps sooner considering FL impacts.

[GCANE]

CAPE has increased to 3000 with a decent updraft at the LLC (LI = -6)
Chances seem to be increasing for some moderate intensification, especially when it gets closer to the coast and interacts with the dryline.

[kevin]

Already looks better than Arlene did last year imo.