ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Landy]

AL, 92, 2024061918, , BEST, 0, 264N, 710W, 30, 1015, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al922024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Blown Away Your message about it may be invest is now reality.

[Sciencerocks]

I wouldn't be shocked to see recon or ascat to show this closed and a little bit more convection. well, it wouldn't take a hell of a lot to go from 20 to 80.

[cycloneye]

Landy, split your post at the Talking Tropics thread to make the main 92L discussion thread.

[Landy]

Definitely trying to close off at 26.5N 72W. (click for the GIF loop)

[AJC3]

I wouldn't be shocked to see recon or ascat to show this closed and a little bit more convection. well, it wouldn't take a hell of a lot to go from 20 to 80.

I would be quite surprised, at least right now. Low clouds elements do show a tiny area of apparent west winds relative to the vort center right at the cusp. However, if you zoom in super tight and look closely at the motion of the low cloud elements, without having your eyes follow the actual vort center, there aren't any ground-relative westerly winds on the south side yet. Given the limitations of the scatterometer, even when/if the system starts to acquire a small area of g-r west winds south of the center ASCAT won't show it, until/unless the area becomes large enough to get captured by the resolution of the instrument. This is still an inverted trough.

[Ian2401]

been watching all last night and today. Very persistent convective activity, albeit somewhat shallow and displaced. Definitely a surface maximum of vorticity just to the west of the convection. potentially some gradual organization in store for it if it can continue producing convection. Won't take much with it being so small and already having a solid structure.

will know more tomorrow when recon investigates

[HurricaneBelle]

It would be interesting if this became Beryl and made landfall in the same location as the 2012 version.

[Category5Kaiju]

Now 30/30.

Looks like June might not be so quiet after all.

[LarryWx]

Based on the TWO image, it appears that the NHC is raising the chance from 20% to 30%. I didn’t expect that. I don’t see the text yet.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure has formed about 300 miles east of
the northwestern Bahamas this evening with disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system is possible while the low moves west-northwestward and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or Georgia early on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[jlauderdal]

Now 30/30.

Looks like June might not be so quiet after all.

Impressive rebound from the graveyard.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't really see this developing but I could be wrong of course. Maybe it'll try to pull a quick one near landfall.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2024062000, , BEST, 0, 264N, 723W, 30, 1013, DB

[chaser1]

It appears to me that the 300-700mb humidity looks to slightly improve tomorrow with this disturbance. Couple that along with a bit of added Gulf Stream SST and I think a 35 mph TD is not unreasonable to imagine. The fact that it is as small as it is can lend itself to quicker organization. Would still need to see evidence of surface west winds though. With a stout 594mb high to its north I would think that any improved vertical stature might cause it to continue mostly westward (St. Augustine perhaps?). Should at least bring in a few breezy squalls to Central/Northeast Florida on Friday.

[Beef Stew]

Really curious to see how 92L handles DMax. While I don’t necessarily think it will definitely develop, I think it has a pretty decent chance- better than the 30% it’s being given currently- if it can wrap and sustain a bit more convection. To me, it has the same look as a few other storms (Emily 2017, Gordon 2018, Danny 2021, etc) that ultimately struggled until rapidly organizing into tropical storms right before landfall.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BobbiStorm/status/1803636764373872683

[chaser1]

Am thinking 50% may be in order by 8:00 am. Another PTC Storm Watch on our hands? 92L is the "anti-gyre"
Perhaps a bit more like the "world's largest waterspout" LOL

[Landy]