NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[InfernoFlameCat]

The latest pass definitely supports Cat 5

[Jr0d]

That removes all doubt. Sub 920mb cat 5 hurricane confirmed.

[Stormgodess]

Is Melissa holding to the model runs? I'm not sure if it's the maps I've been looking at? but I haven't seen movement north

[kevin]

154 kt FL reduces to 139 kt with the standard 0.9 conversion rate. The estimated reduction factor is even 0.93 which would result in 143 kt. Combined with 150 kt SFMR and the continued intensification to 917.7mb with 26 kt FL winds nearby supports 915-917mb / 140 kt.

[BobHarlem]

Is Melissa holding to the model runs? I'm not sure if it's the maps I've been looking at? but I haven't seen movement north

Yes, the more due north and nne motion isn't expected on the HAFS until late this afternoon/early evening.

radar loop:

[kevin]

Dropsonde supports 917 mb. RH in the eye is still at 95% btw, no sign of an EWRC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just woke up and can't sleep, so here I am. The last dropsonde had 919 with 22kt wind so probably close to 917, and these winds are INSANE!
I haven't seen the vortex for that last pass but the previous had a whopping 14 degree C difference in and out of the eye

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is 48 and raining in Atlanta so I can say definitely the front has passed by here and is on the way to pick Melissa up. After the 5am adv. I'm going to try to go back to sleep (how weather nerd is that!)

[kevin]

Two more recon planes just departed for Melissa. There was a slight fear with the last recon plane when it seemed to make a U-turn (the Eta trauma will never heal ), but as is almost always the case recon is on point again.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Two more recon planes just departed for Melissa. There was a slight fear with the last recon plane when it seemed to make a U-turn (the Eta trauma will never heal ), but as is almost always the case recon is on point again.

Looks like one is coming from Curacao so it will get there pretty quickly

[BobHarlem]

5AM - It's a cat 5

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

[kevin]

The third category 5 hurricane of the season. Until now, 2005 was the only year in the database that managed to do this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC adjusted the intensity up as it reaches Bermuda. They are calling for 90mph

[Stormgodess]

Movement 3mph!

[Fancy1002]

Considering she likely has more than 24 hours left until landfall, I think it’s an absolute certainty that she will pass Erin in pressure becoming the strongest storm of the season, how strong is the question.

[kevin]

NHC is forecasting a 140 kt landfall on Jamaica which would be the first landfall at cat 5 strength in the Atlantic since Dorian in 2019. It would also beat Gilbert, 110kt/960mb, for the strongest Jamaica landfall since reliable records started (1851 onwards).

[Travorum]

Hurricane watches are now in effect for Turks and Caicos & The Bahamas as far north as Cat island and Great Exuma. The current NHC forecast has Melissa passing there around 18z on the 29th at 90kts.

[Extratropical94]

Impressive wind profile all the way down

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is our third category 5 of the season. Which puts it right behind 2005 with amount of cat 5 storms. Actually insane

[kevin]

I thought the lobe to the NE of Melissa's CDO might induce weakening, but the lobe seems to disappear without issues. She continues to look better and better with a T#8.0 and a stable +20C eye. Until there is an EWRC this will just keep on intensifying.