NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

NE eyewall drop (although seems to be more north and west), keep in mind this is instantaneous so probably a gust but definitely getting these winds mixed down to the surface.

[Jr0d]

We will see what the NHC goes with for pressure, I think it could be sub 920mb now but doubtful they will go that low, without another pass.

Flight level winds of 152kt do support Melissa being upgraded to a Cat 5 however.

Hopefully we get one more eye pass by recon this morning.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like TEAL75 is gearing for another pass. confirmatory pass?

[Jr0d]

Looks like TEAL75 is gearing for another pass. confirmatory pass?

Yes. This time from north to south.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

A disclaimer abut SFMR estimated wind data will now appear in my recon system's archive page for an HDOB in some cases.

So far I went with:

"Disclaimer about estimated surface wind data from the SFMR instrument:
SFMR data is estimated based on the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument. Surface winds are estimated from that instrument. At higher values, any available SFMR surface wind data may be less reliable compared to estimates in storms with lesser winds. Please use SFMR readings with caution if they do not correlate well to the flight level wind. This note is automatically made more prominent in our recon system in some cases. It does not necessarily indicate that the data is inaccurate, but instead that the data should be interpreted with more caution."

For now I have it set to appear when the 30 second flight level wind is 115 knots or greater and the SFMR estimated surface wind is greater than the 30 second flight level wind. I might add it in other places eventually, but for now it's only on an HDOB page.

[ouragans]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1982721926620729542

[Hurrilurker]

Jamaica is going to get slammed but in a sense they're lucky. If this storm was a little more north and sitting over the island for 2-3 days making the slow turn it would be horrendous.

[weeniepatrol]

154 kt FL. Cat 5

917.7 xtrap

[InfernoFlameCat]

The latest pass definitely supports Cat 5

[Jr0d]

That removes all doubt. Sub 920mb cat 5 hurricane confirmed.

[Stormgodess]

Is Melissa holding to the model runs? I'm not sure if it's the maps I've been looking at? but I haven't seen movement north

[kevin]

154 kt FL reduces to 139 kt with the standard 0.9 conversion rate. The estimated reduction factor is even 0.93 which would result in 143 kt. Combined with 150 kt SFMR and the continued intensification to 917.7mb with 26 kt FL winds nearby supports 915-917mb / 140 kt.

[BobHarlem]

Is Melissa holding to the model runs? I'm not sure if it's the maps I've been looking at? but I haven't seen movement north

Yes, the more due north and nne motion isn't expected on the HAFS until late this afternoon/early evening.

radar loop:

[kevin]

Dropsonde supports 917 mb. RH in the eye is still at 95% btw, no sign of an EWRC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just woke up and can't sleep, so here I am. The last dropsonde had 919 with 22kt wind so probably close to 917, and these winds are INSANE!
I haven't seen the vortex for that last pass but the previous had a whopping 14 degree C difference in and out of the eye

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is 48 and raining in Atlanta so I can say definitely the front has passed by here and is on the way to pick Melissa up. After the 5am adv. I'm going to try to go back to sleep (how weather nerd is that!)

[kevin]

Two more recon planes just departed for Melissa. There was a slight fear with the last recon plane when it seemed to make a U-turn (the Eta trauma will never heal ), but as is almost always the case recon is on point again.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Two more recon planes just departed for Melissa. There was a slight fear with the last recon plane when it seemed to make a U-turn (the Eta trauma will never heal ), but as is almost always the case recon is on point again.

Looks like one is coming from Curacao so it will get there pretty quickly

[BobHarlem]

5AM - It's a cat 5

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.

[kevin]

The third category 5 hurricane of the season. Until now, 2005 was the only year in the database that managed to do this.