NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Pretty wild how suddenly things changed quickly to have a bona fide TC considering we barely had an LLC to start the day.

[Nimbus]

Pretty wild how suddenly things changed quickly to have a bona fide TC considering we barely had an LLC to start the day.

I think that this may be important in that it means the deeper steering flow will be in play now.
The disaster potential is so high with this one, we don't want to jump and make a mistake..

[WaveBreaking]

You can see a shockwave radiating out from the core.

I really don’t like how this is going

[Buck]

You can see a shockwave radiating out from the core.

I've only ever noticed that on much stronger storms... and rarely at that. I think Melissa is signaling that she's ready for business.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think a hurricane by tonight is possible.

[GCANE]

Just punched thru the tropopause.
Check the supersonic wave on the east quad

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Very rare to see something like this.

[Teban54]

You can clearly see the improvements just from the shape of the convective blob itself.

(Of course the cloud tops are also remarkably cold, as it always has been throughout Melissa's life, but keep in mind that we had been misled by that before with Eta.)

[Kazmit]

This could really end up being Jamaica’s Maria.

[cycloneye]

Josh still not ready to go out as he keeps analyzing where will be best for him to do the chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1981785313417593220

[sasha_B]

Naturally as soon as this period of intensification sets in, ADT's ARCHER system decides that the center has jumped 0.7° south and 1.7° west of the NHC's fix, placing it outside of the CDO
It's a good thing we've got another recon flight departing at 20z. I know Melissa's not forecast to be a hurricane for another 12～24 hours yet, but at this rate of development I think it stands a chance at beating that deadline, to say the least.

[Pelicane]

Josh still not ready to go out as he keeps analyzing where will be best for him to do the chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1981785313417593220

I'm guessing Cuba, since there's less uncertainty that it will have direct impacts there.

[Travorum]

Naturally as soon as this period of intensification sets in, ADT's ARCHER system decides that the center has jumped 0.7° south and 1.7° west of the NHC's fix, placing it outside of the CDO
It's a good thing we've got another recon flight departing at 20z. I know Melissa's not forecast to be a hurricane for another 12～24 hours yet, but at this rate of development I think it stands a chance at beating that deadline, to say the least.

Yup, classic ARCHER.

[Zonacane]

Classic comma, well on our way to our 4th major

[aspen]

You can clearly see the improvements just from the shape of the convective blob itself.

(Of course the cloud tops are also remarkably cold, as it always has been throughout Melissa's life, but keep in mind that we had been misled by that before with Eta.)

https://i.imgur.com/CQDdxq9.gif

Speaking of Eta, I think it’s very possible we get another Eta-esqe pink donut south of Jamaica in a few days. The tropopause may support this if the HAFS models are correct.

[sasha_B]

A. 13L (MELISSA)
B. 24/1800Z
C. 15.4N
D. 74.3W
...
H. REMARKS...7/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.5 INCLUDING +0.5 FOR
W. MET=3.5. PT=3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE BANDING FEATURE
RELATIVE TO THE LLCC IS NOT CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE MET.

ADT is now off-center by 2 full degrees west & the latest subjective Dvorak fix (per OSPO's 18z bulletin) yields an estimated intensity below what was confirmed by recon, and the fix time for the upcoming flight is 0z, so there may not be data to justify anything other than maintaining intensity on the next full advisory.

[Hurricaneman]

I think a hurricane by tonight is possible.

Maybe when the next recon gets there

[ronjon]

Shear has dropped and Shear zone north of the system is aiding in ventilation. Melissa is rapidly organizing. I"m starting to think those hurricane models showing RI will come true.

[cheezyWXguy]

Might be a bold claim, not sure, but I’m thinking this could be hurricane already, judging by how the cloud tops are moving in the cdo. Wouldn’t be surprised to the first signs of an intermittent eye before sunset. Really looking forward to recon this evening.

[sasha_B]

Shear has dropped and Shear zone north of the system is aiding in ventilation. Melissa is rapidly organizing. I"m starting to think those hurricane models showing RI will come true.

Eventual RI has been a foregone conclusion for a little while, I think - given the unanimity on the hurricane models + official forecasts - just a question of when. The real question in my mind is whether the "explosive RI" solutions that have shown up again and again on the GDM ensembles stand any chance of verifying now that the storm is this far north and east already. As others have noted, that might be a less disastrous scenario for Jamaica than a slow-moving but weaker MH as has been shown on the hurricane models (not that either one would be good news).

[aspen]

18z BT is up to 50kt/997mb. I think that’s a fair estimate.