NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[cycloneye]

Josh still not ready to go out as he keeps analyzing where will be best for him to do the chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1981785313417593220

[sasha_B]

Naturally as soon as this period of intensification sets in, ADT's ARCHER system decides that the center has jumped 0.7° south and 1.7° west of the NHC's fix, placing it outside of the CDO
It's a good thing we've got another recon flight departing at 20z. I know Melissa's not forecast to be a hurricane for another 12～24 hours yet, but at this rate of development I think it stands a chance at beating that deadline, to say the least.

[Pelicane]

Josh still not ready to go out as he keeps analyzing where will be best for him to do the chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1981785313417593220

I'm guessing Cuba, since there's less uncertainty that it will have direct impacts there.

[Travorum]

Naturally as soon as this period of intensification sets in, ADT's ARCHER system decides that the center has jumped 0.7° south and 1.7° west of the NHC's fix, placing it outside of the CDO
It's a good thing we've got another recon flight departing at 20z. I know Melissa's not forecast to be a hurricane for another 12～24 hours yet, but at this rate of development I think it stands a chance at beating that deadline, to say the least.

Yup, classic ARCHER.

[Zonacane]

Classic comma, well on our way to our 4th major

[aspen]

You can clearly see the improvements just from the shape of the convective blob itself.

(Of course the cloud tops are also remarkably cold, as it always has been throughout Melissa's life, but keep in mind that we had been misled by that before with Eta.)

https://i.imgur.com/CQDdxq9.gif

Speaking of Eta, I think it’s very possible we get another Eta-esqe pink donut south of Jamaica in a few days. The tropopause may support this if the HAFS models are correct.

[sasha_B]

A. 13L (MELISSA)
B. 24/1800Z
C. 15.4N
D. 74.3W
...
H. REMARKS...7/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.5 INCLUDING +0.5 FOR
W. MET=3.5. PT=3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT SINCE BANDING FEATURE
RELATIVE TO THE LLCC IS NOT CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE MET.

ADT is now off-center by 2 full degrees west & the latest subjective Dvorak fix (per OSPO's 18z bulletin) yields an estimated intensity below what was confirmed by recon, and the fix time for the upcoming flight is 0z, so there may not be data to justify anything other than maintaining intensity on the next full advisory.

[Hurricaneman]

I think a hurricane by tonight is possible.

Maybe when the next recon gets there

[ronjon]

Shear has dropped and Shear zone north of the system is aiding in ventilation. Melissa is rapidly organizing. I"m starting to think those hurricane models showing RI will come true.

[cheezyWXguy]

Might be a bold claim, not sure, but I’m thinking this could be hurricane already, judging by how the cloud tops are moving in the cdo. Wouldn’t be surprised to the first signs of an intermittent eye before sunset. Really looking forward to recon this evening.

[sasha_B]

Shear has dropped and Shear zone north of the system is aiding in ventilation. Melissa is rapidly organizing. I"m starting to think those hurricane models showing RI will come true.

Eventual RI has been a foregone conclusion for a little while, I think - given the unanimity on the hurricane models + official forecasts - just a question of when. The real question in my mind is whether the "explosive RI" solutions that have shown up again and again on the GDM ensembles stand any chance of verifying now that the storm is this far north and east already. As others have noted, that might be a less disastrous scenario for Jamaica than a slow-moving but weaker MH as has been shown on the hurricane models (not that either one would be good news).

[aspen]

18z BT is up to 50kt/997mb. I think that’s a fair estimate.

[Zonacane]

We may have dual rotating VHT

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

It looks like the beginning of a core appears on the latest AMSR scan at approximately 14.5/74.5, about where the 18z best track was. There's deep convection around it but its not really all wrapped around it or cleared out yet.

[fllawyer]

At 11am ET advisory, NHC didn't have Melissa as a hurricane until Saturday at 7pm ET and didn't have winds up to 60mph until after 7pm ET tonight. In addition to adjusting their forecast to account for what appears to be quicker strengthening, wondering if they also up the ceiling (was 150mph at 11am ET advisory).

[aspen]

We may have dual rotating VHT

Eh, not quite yet. Looks to be just the one large convective mass right now, which is backed up by microwave.

[sasha_B]

Concur with aspen that the Best Track point for 18z is solid, but it seems likely that this evening's recon will find it much stronger. We have two consecutive instantaneous ADT fixes of T4.4 now that it's correctly idenitified the center; if that kind of presentation holds for another few hours it could justify moving up the short-term intensity forecast a little. (Raw T#s are unreliable and often total outliers, of course, but in this case it's entirely in line with the sharp upward trend that had been going on before ARCHER missed.)

[MarioProtVI]

DRCL (which NHC 95% of the time follows) has a 135 kt point at 72 hours, and then 120 kt just inland of Jamaica at 96. This all but screams they’re going to heavily allude to the fact that Melissa will likely reach Cat 5 before making landfall in Jamaica. Probably “conservative” as well, because that’s a whole day in between borderline C5 and landfall.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/NickKrasz_Wx/status/1981797519324852567