NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/ht7ukn6.png
Still needs to work on the structure

I was gonna say it doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of hours ago

The pressure gradient is also a lot broader too now.

Perhaps there was an initial attempt to form a tight core, but some shear disrupted it and now it’s just forming a larger core instead.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/268Weather/status/1981904613126136055

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/ht7ukn6.png
Still needs to work on the structure

I was gonna say it doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of hours ago

The pressure gradient is also a lot broader too now.

Perhaps there was an initial attempt to form a tight core, but some shear disrupted it and now it’s just forming a larger core instead.

This would make sense. It seems to have taken on a ccc type appearance for now and that persistent band to the southwest doesn’t seem to be getting absorbed so it’s likely competing for energy at the moment. Won’t see rapid intensification until it weakens.

[Hurricane2022]

It feels like I've been tracking this storm for many weeks, what a tiresome and BORING thing. May God help Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola, because only He knows where this mess is headed

[Hurricane2022]

Interesting, recon shows Melissa just south of 16N, at ~15.9°. If this goes more south than forecasted, the initial 165+ kt/890- mb HAFS A & B forecasts have higher chances of verifying I guess.

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[cheezyWXguy]

That southern band has weakened a bit and the western side of the cdo looks to be very gradually expanding again, suggesting the shear impacting it may be starting to decrease.

[TomballEd]

Am I mistaking the Tropical Tidbits recon map? Melissa looks like it is drifting SSW.

I could be wrong.

[869MB]

 https://x.com/268Weather/status/1981904613126136055

It may also be a little ironic that the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series in 1988 as well. Some of the hurricane models are still depicting a disastrous Hurricane Mitch type of scenario for Jamaica. We shall see how this plays out.

[zzzh]

Extrap pressure down to 986.7mb! I did not see that coming

[TomballEd]

Extrap pressure down to 986.7mb! I did not see that coming

Where did you see that?

Edit to add: bedtime. See y'all tomorrow.

[Iceresistance]

986.7 extrapolated, goodness

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3daJ.png

[cheezyWXguy]

986.7 extrapolated, goodness
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3daJ.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3daJ.png

That’s a pretty solid jump. It does coincide with the rebound in appearance on satellite though. What really surprises me though is that the pressure can drop that low with FL winds of less than 40kt

[ElectricStorm]

Drop 989/27, supports 986-987mb. Looks to be ramping up, probably for real this time

[WaveBreaking]

Yet another shockwave from the CDO. Not as dramatic as the first one but still there.

[chaser1]

Simply looking at the CDO (especially in comparison to the last few days), i'm half expecting to suddenly see an eye appear in the next satellite frame smack in the dead middle of it. I'll say this much, it's symmetrical and small shape makes me think of Hurricane Andrew.

[chaser1]

One other quick take. Watching this storm for the last 2 days has felt like watching and waiting for an unfertilized egg to hatch.

[abajan]

6z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102506, , BEST, 0, 163N, 749W, 60, 986, TS...

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/1981904707099807945

[ThomasW]

Looks like a "CCC" pattern in Melissa. The GFS's solution is becoming reality, fortunately for Jamaica

[kevin]

The average CDO temperature has fallen from -65C to -70C within the last 60 minutes. The eyewall is also becoming visible on IR as even colder cloudtops within the CDO. Not sure when I've seen that for the last time. If Melissa is gonna follow those crazy model runs this is when it needs to happen. Let's see what happens, recon is on its way.