NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[zzzh]

Extrap pressure down to 986.7mb! I did not see that coming

[TomballEd]

Extrap pressure down to 986.7mb! I did not see that coming

Where did you see that?

Edit to add: bedtime. See y'all tomorrow.

[Iceresistance]

986.7 extrapolated, goodness

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3daJ.png

[cheezyWXguy]

986.7 extrapolated, goodness
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3daJ.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3daJ.png

That’s a pretty solid jump. It does coincide with the rebound in appearance on satellite though. What really surprises me though is that the pressure can drop that low with FL winds of less than 40kt

[ElectricStorm]

Drop 989/27, supports 986-987mb. Looks to be ramping up, probably for real this time

[WaveBreaking]

Yet another shockwave from the CDO. Not as dramatic as the first one but still there.

[chaser1]

Simply looking at the CDO (especially in comparison to the last few days), i'm half expecting to suddenly see an eye appear in the next satellite frame smack in the dead middle of it. I'll say this much, it's symmetrical and small shape makes me think of Hurricane Andrew.

[chaser1]

One other quick take. Watching this storm for the last 2 days has felt like watching and waiting for an unfertilized egg to hatch.

[abajan]

6z Best Track:

AL, 13, 2025102506, , BEST, 0, 163N, 749W, 60, 986, TS...

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherMonitors/status/1981904707099807945

[ThomasW]

Looks like a "CCC" pattern in Melissa. The GFS's solution is becoming reality, fortunately for Jamaica

[kevin]

The average CDO temperature has fallen from -65C to -70C within the last 60 minutes. The eyewall is also becoming visible on IR as even colder cloudtops within the CDO. Not sure when I've seen that for the last time. If Melissa is gonna follow those crazy model runs this is when it needs to happen. Let's see what happens, recon is on its way.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/Mike__Gagliardi/status/1981858838337949838

[GCANE]

Dry air from the bottom of the trof is quickly being filled in with moist air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[jlauderdal]

Dry air from the bottom of the trof is quickly being filled in with moist air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

Classic Fall setup, look at the flow working on the system keeping it pinned. This was a blockbuster Gulf system two weeks late.

[ronjon]

Definitely moving west now. Incredibly cold cloud tops in CDO. She should RI today.

[cycloneye]

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 68kt at 10:47z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 985.3mb at 10:50z

[Nimbus]

Definitely moving west now. Incredibly cold cloud tops in CDO. She should RI today.

Recon mission is checking this morning, flying west near 16.18N
Both 00z GFS and ECM have her gaining a little more latitude before a WSW slide into the blue mountains.
Only the UKMET is still showing a hook NE over western Jamaica and that is as the weak storm outlier.
100 year flood map could help officials with evacuation but Jamaican politics being what they are.

[BobHarlem]

A bit easier to see on radar this morning. (note the mountains cut off angles of the radar there)

[Deshaunrob17]

This is going to be just an easy heavy system ( assuming due to westerly shear) that the hurricane could make landfall in east/ central Jamaica and barely impacts west Jamaica. Meanwhile in these scenarios even Haiti gets hammered with rain bands