NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Category5Kaiju]

Another year, another powerhouse, memorable, and unfortunately likely-destructive Atlantic hurricane.

2025 was all fish storms and fun & games, until it wasn't. It really does only take one storm to define a season.

[zzzh]

[Iceresistance]

NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

[Hurricane2022]

NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

And no pressure drop at all (?)

[KirbyDude25]

NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

No drop in extrapolated pressure, though. We'll have to wait for the dropsonde, of course, but it seems strange that the pressure hasn't dropped despite Melissa's improved appearance

[Iceresistance]

NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

And no pressure drop at all (?)

Eye drop just came in

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ngM.png
Seems like it's working out on finalizing the structure before it starts to bomb out

[Travorum]

The dropsonde came in at 971mb w/3kts wind, so roughly steady since the last pass interestingly. Also of note that based on the two NOAA passes Melissa seems to be moving SW.

[WaveBreaking]

[Blown Away]

8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Melissa was not predicted to lose latitude and IMO moving a little faster W than expected.

[Travorum]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5ywz0ywL/goes19-ir-13L-202510252205.gif [/url]

8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Melissa was not predicted to lose latitude and IMO moving a little faster W than expected.

The eye dropsonde that just came in actually had the center down a little further at 16.4N, and I agree that W motion today has seemed faster than forecasted.

[CrazyC83]

With all that data, 90 kt seems the best intensity estimate to me.

[zzzh]

AL, 13, 2025102600, , BEST, 0, 165N, 757W, 90, 971, HU,

[zzzh]

F. CLOSED
G. C17

Shrinking

[WaveBreaking]

The outflow fanning out to the W is really expansive. Eye should pop out sometime soon.

[Hurricane2022]

Recon showing that small double wind maxima again

[Hurricane2022]

[BobHarlem]

South of west motion more apparent on this radar loop

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982247180464209964

[Hurricane2022]

More VHTs coming on the E eyewall.

[Teban54]

A recap of how things evolved from a single convective burst a few hours ago: