NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

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zzzh
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby zzzh » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:57 pm

F. CLOSED
G. C17

Shrinking
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby WaveBreaking » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:58 pm

The outflow fanning out to the W is really expansive. Eye should pop out sometime soon.


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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:59 pm

Recon showing that small double wind maxima again
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:04 pm

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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:08 pm

South of west motion more apparent on this radar loop
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:10 pm

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982247180464209964

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:23 pm

More VHTs coming on the E eyewall.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:32 pm

A recap of how things evolved from a single convective burst a few hours ago:

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:33 pm


What also often happens is "stair-stepping": Pressure drops first, then wind catches up, then pressure drops again, etc.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:41 pm

Haven’t had much chance to watch this thing since about 1pm. Wow what a dramatic change in strength and appearance. The leveling off in pressure is clearly temporary. I don’t think I’m gonna get much sleep tonight watching this evolve lol.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby Kazmit » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:50 pm

I've never seen these "jagged" features that are on the SW side of the CDO and inner bands. It's not "ragged" like a struggling system would be, but more like aggressive spikes of energy radiating outwards.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:54 pm

Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3n6E.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:55 pm

You can just tell this is an absolute beast in the making. Melissa...another M baddie...looks to be the bad one of the 25 season
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby zzzh » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:03 pm

750mb FL 111kt! :eek: This would support 95-100kt
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby crimi481 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:11 pm

If it goes more south and west, could the next front miss lifting it out to sea?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:12 pm

zzzh wrote:750mb FL 111kt! :eek: This would support 95-100kt


If that was at 700, this would be a major. But even still I agree 95 kt is the best estimate for the intensity.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby zzzh » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:13 pm

Dropsonde supports 969mb.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby ljmac75 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:20 pm

Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:23 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile


I saw it with 106 kt at the surface. I wonder if it is accurate? Or a bit overdone?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:23 pm

ljmac75 wrote:Latest dropsonde has >100 kt winds down the whole profile

:eek:

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