where do you think TD#10 will go

[canetracker]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200510_climo.html


past storms in this area have gone mostly towards the fish scenario but 3 have made it to threaten or landfall in the US so only time will tell for sure so lets just hang back and drink a cold one its going to be a long year!!!

i chose fish

Think it is too early to tell. However, do agree with the scenario of hanging back and drinking a cold one. What a year this has been already!!!

[EDR1222]

Looks like a fish to me.

[Patrick99]

The polls are funny. This doesn't have the look of a Florida landfaller at all, IMO. It just doesn't look like the classic relentlessly churning WNW FL hurricane, barring the appearance of an Andrew-esque 1032mb ridge.

[NorthGaWeather]

East coast threat.

[dwg71]

dwg...next time make your OWN forecast and opinions...just don't say oh fish...climo..nhc...remeber ANDREW started somewhere near here...now calm down, im not saying its gonna happen again...but, prelims from globals indicate the ridge will be there and build west with time....man...you can call this a fish now if you want...but, i am not

I'm not a met, so I wont make a plot by plot forecast. I look at the data I have ,intepret my way and come up with a prediction. You said "definately not a fish" in regards to Irene. You were wrong, you went against climo.

I think the globals are overestimating the strength of the ridge. Even at NHC's 120 track, yes it bends west, but it is still at 25N 61.5W. In my opinion, it would be unlikely not to recurve out to sea. Too far north and not far enough west to affect US mainland.

Just because I dont put out amateur forecasts, doesnt mean that my predictions are not sound. They are based on three things. I analyze climo first, I look at NHC 72 hour cone, and then analyze models. From all of that I come up with a general prediction as to track. When 96L was first posted, I said no way GOMer, and was bashed. Though I was right. I then added not only not GOMer, its is a fish. Then bashed. Listen, if I'm wrong I will be first to admit it.

[gkrangers]

Why do you think the models are OVERestimating the strenght of the ridge?

[dwg71]

Why do you think the models are OVERestimating the strenght of the ridge?

Irene, would be my quick answer. 120 hours out they had the ridge building and had Irene going to SC/NC. Then UKMET broke away and started the northern trend. Everyone laughed and said what is Irene going to do, bust right through the ridge. Then other models followed and then low and behold, Irene followed.

Just the way I see it.

[gkrangers]

Why do you think the models are OVERestimating the strenght of the ridge?

Irene, would be my quick answer. 120 hours out they had the ridge building and had Irene going to SC/NC. Then UKMET broke away and started the northern trend. Everyone laughed and said what is Irene going to do, bust right through the ridge. Then other models followed and then low and behold, Irene followed.

Just the way I see it.

And do you know why the western edge eroded, despite the models portraying it as strong?

[dwg71]

no. Not a clue. erosion insuates it was once there, dont know if it ever was that strong.

[cinlfla]

And do you know why the western edge eroded, despite the models portraying it as strong?

Sorry I have to butt in and ask, why? in case they don't respond

[wxmann_91]

Why do you think the models are OVERestimating the strenght of the ridge?

Irene, would be my quick answer. 120 hours out they had the ridge building and had Irene going to SC/NC. Then UKMET broke away and started the northern trend. Everyone laughed and said what is Irene going to do, bust right through the ridge. Then other models followed and then low and behold, Irene followed.

Just the way I see it.

And do you know why the western edge eroded, despite the models portraying it as strong?

Is that sarcasm? If it's not, somebody noted in an earlier post that the ULL parked off the east coast was underestimated by the models, and that was the mechanism that carved out a weakness in the subtropical ridge for Irene to pass through.

[gkrangers]

Why do you think the models are OVERestimating the strenght of the ridge?

Irene, would be my quick answer. 120 hours out they had the ridge building and had Irene going to SC/NC. Then UKMET broke away and started the northern trend. Everyone laughed and said what is Irene going to do, bust right through the ridge. Then other models followed and then low and behold, Irene followed.

Just the way I see it.

And do you know why the western edge eroded, despite the models portraying it as strong?

Is that sarcasm? If it's not, somebody noted in an earlier post that the ULL parked off the east coast was underestimated by the models, and that was the mechanism that carved out a weakness in the subtropical ridge for Irene to pass through.

Right. I was just curious if he knew what made the models screw the pooch on this one...

[Hurricaneman]

I voted fish, but Im starting to lean toward the Carolinas

[dwg71]

Why do you think the models are OVERestimating the strenght of the ridge?

Irene, would be my quick answer. 120 hours out they had the ridge building and had Irene going to SC/NC. Then UKMET broke away and started the northern trend. Everyone laughed and said what is Irene going to do, bust right through the ridge. Then other models followed and then low and behold, Irene followed.

Just the way I see it.

And do you know why the western edge eroded, despite the models portraying it as strong?

Is that sarcasm? If it's not, somebody noted in an earlier post that the ULL parked off the east coast was underestimated by the models, and that was the mechanism that carved out a weakness in the subtropical ridge for Irene to pass through.

Right. I was just curious if he knew what made the models screw the pooch on this one...

Models were good the whole time for 48-72 hours. Not 120.

[LarryWx]

IF TD #10 has really been moving NW (315 degrees) that far east, climatology would say it is virtually impossible for it to ever hit the U.S. based on tracks going back to 1851. However, I now have serious doubts as to whether or not the primary low has really been moving NW after viewing the following link's IR loop (click on "Vis and IR floater" in W. Caribbean):

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I see a naked swirl near 13.5N, 46W!

[wzrgirl1]

florida east coast....possibly northern part of the florida east coast

[MetroMike]

None of the above

To the Atlantic graveyard...Dry air is is our foe this August.

[Stratusxpeye]

Nowhere but disapation it is going bye bye. Like everything else this year except 2 storms. This is just wierd. But who knows.