TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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Astro_man92
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Astro_man92
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Andrew92
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
To those who think this season could be 9/3/2 or similar....
I also wonder if Cindy will posthumously be upgraded to a hurricane. However, just because so far a vast majority of the TS's this year have failed to become hurricanes but have come close, don't assume that every one will fail. I think with all of these storms reaching 65-70 mph, if anything I only stand and wonder how many may form once we hit the peak and reach the (almost) completely favorable MJO.
The fact that we got 2 major hurricanes in July during a brief favorable MJO, and that during the at least mostly unfavorable MJO we still have had 3 storms almost become hurricanes (and there's still a chance Irene could become a hurricane), I think it's only a matter of time before we start seeing a parade of hurricanes.
Maybe Irene will fail to become a hurricane and, if TD #10 becomes a storm, Jose might fail too if he's sheared badly, making the numbers 10/2/2. But if Katrina forms during more favorable conditions in the same area a little later, I would expect her to intensify, and several others to follow suit.
I'll say it, I think we may have potentially four to five hurricanes in a row soon. Kinda reminds of 2001 in that essence. Barry, Chantal, and Dean all got that close as well in August, yet failed to become hurricanes. All of a sudden, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Iris were all hurricanes, three of them major.
But back to Irene. I still think she might become a hurricane tomorrow, but if she doesn't look any better, she won't have a chance.
-Andrew92
To those who think this season could be 9/3/2 or similar....
I also wonder if Cindy will posthumously be upgraded to a hurricane. However, just because so far a vast majority of the TS's this year have failed to become hurricanes but have come close, don't assume that every one will fail. I think with all of these storms reaching 65-70 mph, if anything I only stand and wonder how many may form once we hit the peak and reach the (almost) completely favorable MJO.
The fact that we got 2 major hurricanes in July during a brief favorable MJO, and that during the at least mostly unfavorable MJO we still have had 3 storms almost become hurricanes (and there's still a chance Irene could become a hurricane), I think it's only a matter of time before we start seeing a parade of hurricanes.
Maybe Irene will fail to become a hurricane and, if TD #10 becomes a storm, Jose might fail too if he's sheared badly, making the numbers 10/2/2. But if Katrina forms during more favorable conditions in the same area a little later, I would expect her to intensify, and several others to follow suit.
I'll say it, I think we may have potentially four to five hurricanes in a row soon. Kinda reminds of 2001 in that essence. Barry, Chantal, and Dean all got that close as well in August, yet failed to become hurricanes. All of a sudden, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Iris were all hurricanes, three of them major.
But back to Irene. I still think she might become a hurricane tomorrow, but if she doesn't look any better, she won't have a chance.
-Andrew92
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Scorpion
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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gkrangers
Do you know how to perform the Dvorak technique? I just don't think anyone should make Dvorak estimates.Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Center at 31.8/69.7...Convection mostly to the south of the center. With curve banding/outflow is fair.
3.5/3.5 t
This is my own est not the nhc/noaa.
Also...SAB, TAFB, and AFWA make the estimates..not NHC/NOAA.
But hes entitled to his opinion I guess...
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Astro_man92
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gkrangers
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WeatherEmperor
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Andrew92
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WeatherEmperor wrote:gkrangers wrote:If you want a good laugh..go re-read some of this thread and see how stupid most of us look.
well that is gonna be a very long read cause alot of stupid stuff was said. lol
<RICKY>
Almost makes you wish there was a Vonage commercial for this thread! Woo hoo!
-Andrew92
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Brent
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Sanibel wrote:Deepest burst yet. Looks like it is going for hurricane...
From the NHC at 11:
THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...
SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.
IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE NEXT RECON
FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.
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#neversummer
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Astro_man92
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