Food For Thought on This Season's Storm Intensities

[recmod]

I have been hearing comments about the fact that, other than Dennis and Emily, the 2005 season has produced a flock of weakling systems consisting of 7 mere tropical storms. Here's some food for thought:

FOUR of those tropical storms officially peaked at 70mph (Arlene, Cindy, Franklin and, Irene). If each of these systems were a mere 4 mph higher in wind speed, we would be looking at a season which, by August 14, has so far produced SIX hurricanes.

We all know that recon samples only a small portion of a storm and that there are often hours in between flights. There are already arguments that Cindy should be upgraded to a hurricane in post-storm analysis. Is it so far-fetched to imagine that the other three 70mph tropical storms did not also reach at least minimal hurricane force during their life-span????

I know I know...this is the part where I get bashed for not blindly following the OFFICIAL National Hurricane Center advisory statements. But I truly think we have had 5 or 6 hurricanes this season, with the maximum winds just not being instrument recorded. It's kind of inconceivable that so many storms peaked out at that 70mph plateau....


As I said, just food for thought...not trying to start any arguments against the NHC.

--Lou

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with your thinking recmod. Cindy on the hrd data shown 67 knots for two runs. That is more then enough to upgrade it to a hurricane. I believe Arlene came close. Also Franklin.


Also with the blow up of deep convection to the north quad of Irene. I expect her to become a hurricane at 11pm.

[LarryWx]

Just the two actual hurricanes to date is above the average of between one and two as of the current date. The two majors is WAY above the ~0.5 average. This season has not been slow in any shape or form. Sure, the percentage of tropical storms has been much lower than normal, but that is deceiving in a season with 5.3 more NS than the long term average. To me these extra NS's were like bonus storms.

[shaggy]

Good statement because i remember that during emily on an outbound leg of the recon they sampled some winds approaching cat 5 but by the next plane returned it was already on a down cycle in intensity. All of these storms were probably close to Hurricane status but just because the plane wasn't there to see it doesn't mean it didn't happen.


AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRALPRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THENORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

The boundaries drawn by the NHC are actually pretty solid lines. While it may seem like just a 10-mph difference, a 70mph TS and an 80mph hurricane appear very different on sattelite...more consolidated, while still banding, and a proper eye is usually there. A TS-eye is almost always open and ragged just looks...like a tropical storm with a hole in the middle. Same way that you can just TELL the difference between a Cat.2 and a Cat.3...it may only be 10-15mph, but the difference is just there.

The NHC has to take all of this into account when deciding whether Irene is actually a hurricane and not just some TS that keeps trying, but can't maintain that threshold.

[johngaltfla]

With Irene being a hurricane now and we're on the upward slope into the peak of the season, I wouldn't worry. My fear is that we will see another landfalling Cat 5. I think the lack of this season following climatology (as stated during a past advisory) will introduce us all to some amazing sights.

Nature is not acting normal. The oceans are much hotter. We have dead zones where there is no sea life off of our coast now. There's some sort of change occurring and with that change, to speculate on future intensities is just that.

Last season we had a taste of that, one year ago this weekend. Just imagine the "what if" had Charley stayed out to see 1-2 more hours before hitting Tampa Bay in those 90 degree waters.

I think we'll see some real record breakers as far as number and intensity of storms this year. I just hope that the intensity records don't occur over a major populated city.