Tropical Storm Fernanda At EPAC

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 142028
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005

ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. A
QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 50 KT WIND
SPEEDS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ASSUMING THESE VALUES WERE
ATTENUATED BY RAIN...60 KT SEEMS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE
INTENSITY. SINCE THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH OF WEST AND LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOING SO FOR SOME TIME...IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE INCREASED
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AHEAD OF FERNANDA SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENING RATE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN
SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 240/8. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL REGIME IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE DONE USING THE QUIKSCAT
PASS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.2N 130.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.7N 131.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 17.2N 133.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.2N 136.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 140.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 147.0W 50 KT

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

This kind of concerns me. Fernanda's WSW track means we could be in for quite a long-tracking storm!

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Actually....


Possible Hawaii threat?

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 150901
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 15/0526Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT
THAT THE EARLIER NOTED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED THE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN
THE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AS A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET IS AN
OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS
DEEP LAYER BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT BEYOND DAY 3...WHICH NOW SUGGESTS A
CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
SHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.5N 132.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W 30 KT

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 151440
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE FURTHER DISSIPATION
OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA. A 0236 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 45 KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WHEN THE SYSTEM HAD
MORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
SPINDOWN...WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40
KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS
ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/6. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM REMAIN OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.2N 132.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.8N 133.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 137.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.8N 138.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W 25 KT

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 152034
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FERNANDA IS A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE DATA T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 30 KT AND FERNANDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VERY DRY
STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT...
WITH DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH
72 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS...DISSIPATION MAY
OCCUR SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 255/8. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THE UKMET AND
THE DEEP LAYERED BAM ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.0N 134.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 135.4W 25 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 17/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

[Andrew92]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FERNANDA REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 18
HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AND FERNANDA IS CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW
THROUGH 72 HOURS.

NOW THAT FERNANDA IS SHALLOW...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS ENSUED AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/10. FERNANDA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE BAMS MODEL.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 135.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$


Fernanda, Don't get hit on the way out! See ya in 2011!

[hurricanefreak1988]

Good, both the E-Pac storms have bit the dust. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming in the Atlantic. Things will be heating up over here really soon.