Remnants of 10L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[senorpepr]

Alright... let's open up this thread for 10L comments, sat pics, and models as we watch the remnants of 10L possibly form into a depression in the next couple of days.

...and lets stay on topic this time.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION        TEN (AL102005) ON 20050815  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050815  0000   050815  1200   050816  0000   050816  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.5N  47.4W   15.9N  48.8W   17.2N  50.1W   18.5N  51.6W
  BAMM    14.5N  47.4W   15.5N  48.8W   16.5N  50.1W   17.4N  51.6W
  A98E    14.5N  47.4W   15.6N  48.7W   16.7N  50.0W   18.2N  51.4W
  LBAR    14.5N  47.4W   15.8N  48.6W   17.4N  49.9W   19.2N  51.4W
  SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          31KTS          36KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          31KTS          36KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050817  0000   050818  0000   050819  0000   050820  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    19.6N  53.1W   21.4N  56.7W   23.6N  60.3W   25.1N  63.1W
  BAMM    18.1N  53.0W   19.4N  56.9W   21.6N  61.2W   23.5N  64.9W
  A98E    19.7N  53.1W   23.1N  56.2W   26.4N  59.4W   29.7N  61.2W
  LBAR    20.7N  52.9W   23.9N  56.4W   27.1N  58.4W   28.4N  58.2W
  SHIP        42KTS          53KTS          61KTS          65KTS
  DSHP        42KTS          53KTS          61KTS          65KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR =  47.4W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  46.4W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
  LATM24 =  13.7N LONM24 =  45.6W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

No official forecast on the ATCF file for 00Z...

[artist]

what are your thoughts senorpepr? for the new thread.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L



INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 14



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 13.6 46.8 320./ 4.1

6 13.9 47.2 311./ 5.1

12 14.2 48.0 287./ 8.2

18 14.7 48.8 302./ 9.3

24 15.4 49.8 307./11.9

30 16.2 50.7 314./11.6

36 16.8 51.5 302./10.1

42 17.3 52.3 300./ 9.1

48 17.8 53.0 311./ 7.9

54 18.2 53.8 296./ 9.3

60 18.7 54.8 297./10.8

66 19.5 55.8 307./12.0

72 20.4 57.1 305./14.8

78 21.2 58.3 305./13.6

84 21.8 59.8 294./15.1

90 22.6 60.8 308./12.6

96 23.3 61.9 301./11.9

102 23.9 62.9 298./11.2

108 24.2 63.8 295./ 8.6

114 24.8 64.6 305./ 9.2

120 25.3 65.3 303./ 8.3

126 25.5 66.0 290./ 6.1







[jkt21787]

Wow, 65 kts at 120hr. Is that the same forecast source that you posted in the now locked thread that was showing a minimal TS at that time?

[senorpepr]

Wow, 65 kts at 120hr. Is that the same forecast source that you posted in the now locked thread that was showing a minimal TS at that time?

No. The above is from the 00Z model run. What I posted in the other thread was the official NHC forecast from 18Z.

[Hyperstorm]

I posted some brief comments on another thread, but I'll post them again here, since this appears to be the "official" thread. This will keep the information organized in one thread.

T-Numbers from SAB are back up to 1.0, which is similar to what it was 18 hours before an upgrade to Tropical Depression status yesterday.

It will still be a a few days before we see any type of re-development, if any, since the shear is still there. Actually, the system would have to move north of 20N, west of 50W for shear to become less of a concern.

Until then, this system will have to fight for its life to survive this hostile environment. The LLC is very weak and more shear will only weaken it more.

[jkt21787]

Wow, 65 kts at 120hr. Is that the same forecast source that you posted in the now locked thread that was showing a minimal TS at that time?

No. The above is from the 00Z model run. What I posted in the other thread was the official NHC forecast from 18Z.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[senorpepr]

what are your thoughts senorpepr? for the new thread.

Well, I haven't been able to dive into everything I want to (other forecasts right now are more important), but it appears that this should do something similar to Irene... for the next few days at least. I'm expecting a quasi-depression/wave state for a few days as the remnants tries to reorganize itself. However, in two to three days, things should improve enough to get at least depression status back and maybe a storm in an additional day or two. As for beyond five days, it's really a crap shot, but I'd venture out and say it wouldn't surprise me to see a storm TS to cat 1 in a week or say. It really depends on how much the subtropical ridges builds westward. That will also dictate where, if at all, any landfall occurs. We'll see over the next few days.

[artist]

thanks! will be watching it!

[Steve H.]

18Z GFDL has it as a strong cat 3 116 knots at the end of its run and in about the same location.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear models forecast the shear to start backing off. In also the LLC is still closed with convection "trying" to develop over it. I would say if given any chance this will develop.

If FERNANDA can hold its own at 18 north over the Eastern Pacific. Then this can make it.

[Hyperstorm]

18Z GFDL has it as a strong cat 3 116 knots at the end of its run and in about the same location.

Steve,

That is the 950 MB wind forecast. That is not a surface wind forecast. The 116 kts would roughly equal 100-105 mph, which is a Category 2 hurricane. Don't be mislead by that 950 MB wind reading...

[mahicks]

18Z GFDL has it as a strong cat 3 116 knots at the end of its run and in about the same location.

Link plz??

[Brent]

[artist]

thank goodness that is many days away - hope it turns north later!

[gkrangers]

676
ABNT20 KNHC 150226
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 355 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[elysium]

Do each one of those dots on the UKMET and GDFL represent 24 hours?

[Scorpion]

Im sure liking that slow turn to the west. Could be something to watch.

[Brent]

Do each one of those dots on the UKMET and GDFL represent 24 hours?

12 hours through the first couple of days and then 24 hours...

Think it's 12, 24, 36, 48, 72 like the NHC...