Remnants of 10L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

628
WHXX01 KWBC 150645
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050815 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050815 0600 050815 1800 050816 0600 050816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 48.5W 16.3N 50.0W 17.4N 51.5W 18.3N 52.9W
BAMM 15.0N 48.5W 16.0N 50.1W 16.7N 51.5W 17.4N 53.0W
A98E 15.0N 48.5W 16.0N 50.4W 17.0N 52.1W 18.1N 53.8W
LBAR 15.0N 48.5W 16.2N 49.8W 17.8N 51.3W 19.3N 52.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050817 0600 050818 0600 050819 0600 050820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.0N 54.4W 20.6N 58.4W 22.4N 62.5W 23.8N 66.3W
BAMM 17.7N 54.4W 18.7N 58.5W 20.4N 63.0W 21.9N 67.4W
A98E 19.2N 55.4W 21.8N 58.9W 24.5N 62.6W 26.9N 66.7W
LBAR 20.6N 54.7W 23.3N 58.5W 26.0N 61.3W 27.2N 61.8W
SHIP 44KTS 55KTS 65KTS 72KTS
DSHP 44KTS 55KTS 65KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 48.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 46.6W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 45.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

15/0615 UTC 14.7N 48.3W T1.5/1.5 10 -- Atlantic Ocean


He's back!!!

[artist]

2am discussion -

A 1008 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
14.5N49W-16.5N46W.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear is coming back big time. It has distoryed any chance for this system to redevelop. RIP tropical depression 10.

[senorpepr]

An area of low pressure... the remnant of Tropical Depression Ten...
is located about 775 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. While
there has been some increase in thunderstorm activity overnight...
this system is still poorly organized. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for redevelopment into a tropical
cyclone during the next day or two.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey take a look at the 12Z run for the GFDL only(others arent out yet). You will notice the track is slightly further south but it shows a hint of a bend back towards the W at the very very end of the run. Its updated for me, but for some of you perhaps wait a few more minutes.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Patrick99]

Why is there so much shear in that area? The upper level low in the mid-ocean seems to be getting further away from ex TD 10....it seems far to the north and northeast, yet there still seems to be a shear axis of some sort stretching all the way back into the Caribbean. Why is the shear not abating?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050815 1200 050816 0000 050816 1200 050817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 49.3W 15.7N 50.9W 16.6N 52.4W 17.3N 53.8W
BAMM 14.6N 49.3W 15.3N 50.8W 16.0N 52.4W 16.5N 53.8W
A98E 14.6N 49.3W 15.2N 51.0W 16.2N 52.8W 17.3N 54.6W
LBAR 14.6N 49.3W 15.6N 50.8W 16.8N 52.5W 17.9N 54.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050817 1200 050818 1200 050819 1200 050820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 55.4W 19.7N 59.7W 21.7N 64.3W 23.3N 68.3W
BAMM 16.8N 55.4W 17.9N 59.6W 19.6N 64.8W 20.9N 69.6W
A98E 18.5N 56.4W 21.5N 60.6W 24.5N 64.9W 27.5N 69.0W
LBAR 19.0N 56.4W 21.6N 61.1W 24.7N 65.2W 26.5N 67.5W
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 67KTS 74KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 67KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 49.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 47.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 46.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Models still are ploting this system and ship has it as a hurricane in 4 days but the enviromental conditions are not favorable right now for rapid regeneration.

[WeatherEmperor]

Any idea why there is still so much shear in that location? To he north, there appears to be a very strong ridge forming on WV imagery.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

Any idea why there is still so much shear in that location? To he north, there appears to be a very strong ridge forming on WV imagery.

<RICKY>

Not over the remnants of TD10, there isn't. There's a sharp upper-level trough right over the top of it.

[cycloneye]

12:00z Model Guidance.

[x-y-no]

12:00z Model Guidance.

BAMs keep shifting left ...

[WeatherEmperor]

12:00z Model Guidance.

BAMs keep shifting left ...

yeah thats what Im affraid of. Also note that the global models on that map(GFDL and UKMET) turn it back towards the west at the end of their track runs. If this keeps happening in their runs then I hope that those hostile conditions tear it apart right now.

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

the little storm that could.

[P.K.]

15/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.3W T1.0/1.5 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

[WindRunner]

nubers down a little, but models still show enough punch to regen in ~24hrs, just will the LLC hold on long enough to get its convection back?

[cycloneye]

EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 49.3W





ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 15.08.2005 14.6N 49.3W WEAK

00UTC 16.08.2005 15.3N 51.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2005 15.7N 53.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2005 17.0N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2005 18.0N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2005 19.5N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2005 21.2N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2005 22.8N 62.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2005 24.0N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2005 25.2N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2005 25.5N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2005 26.1N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2005 26.3N 71.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12z UKMET shows a bend to the west.

[clfenwi]

Comments in the 2:05 PM TWD

1009 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 14.7N 49.2W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
BEEN EXPOSED ALL MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION
OCCURRING TO THE N AND E. THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING INTO THE
TERRITORY OF A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SO
IS UNDER STRONG S/SWLY SHEAR. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL
THE SYSTEM ESCAPES THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 46W-50W AND ALONG THE ITCZ.

[boca]

TD 10 looks completely dead. I predict no comeback and if it does I'll eat crow.

[Weatherboy1]

That's what this early look from the HPC suggests a week out or so:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

It's the 7-day forecast issued a little while ago, and it appears to show a front dipping pretty far south over the eastern U.S. That low several hundred miles east of FL is the remnant of TD #10, and even if it were to survive, IF this forecast verifies, it would probably just recurve out to sea.

All of that said, this is so far out, it's reall just specualtion -- IF the low survives, if the 7-day forecast is accurate, etc., etc. So I think we need to wait 48 hours before we have a better idea of the U.S. threat, if any, from 10.

-Mike