When will the environment become less hostile?

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Andrew92
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#21 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 12:08 pm

It's very possible, in reference to the initial comment here, that the season will remain unfavorable for the development of "healthy" tropical cyclones through the remainder of the season. Considering that Franklin, Harvey and Irene were all "unhealthy" (or weak) tropical storms, this seems to possibly be the case.


Frank, I'm not doubting your credentials by any means, but ALL three of them got to at least 65 mph, with Franklin and Irene reaching 70 mph. Maybe they didn't look all that great for their intensities, but they were definitely not weak. 70 mph is only 4 short of a C1 hurricane, and I don't consider any hurricane weak.

I'm not saying that the U.S. will get hit by any more hurricanes, because we may get lucky. However, I've been saying this several times over the last couple days, and I'll say it again. While I did tell you this season might be like 1995, the lack of hurricanes is reminding me a little of 2001. I know conditions might not get more favorable for more storms to develop, but it's only August 14, still almost a month away from the climatological peak of the season. We need to be patient, but if so many storms are reaching 70 mph but not quite reaching hurricane status, it tells me that if conditions get more favorable, several hurricanes could develop later.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2001/

I'm not trying to wishcast either, especially since 1) I don't live in hurricane territory and 2) after last year, I think we all could use a break. But something keeps telling me we haven't seen everything 2005 has to offer. JMO.

-Andrew92
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#22 Postby webke » Sun Aug 14, 2005 12:14 pm

Andrew92,

I must agree with you, I think that because we had such an early start to the season that people tend to forget that the peak is still a month away. Everyone needs to be patient there is more to come.

Ken
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#23 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 14, 2005 1:00 pm

x-y-no wrote:This season is a dud!!

:lol: :lol:


...

Patience, grasshopper. 8-)


lol that always happens when there is little activity in the Atlantic. But when it explodes youll hear a different story.

<RICKY>
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#24 Postby Lifesgud2 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 3:16 pm

[quote="WeatherEmperor"][quote="x-y-no"]This season is a dud!!

:lol: :lol:


...

I agree.. Season is just about over. The funny thing was that I was called a troll in an earlier post. Ha....
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#25 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:03 am

Re: hurricanetrack's post

No, I'm not either of those Franks - actually, between the NHC and HRD, we had so many Franks over the years (first or last name), that we could probably have a picnic (I couldn't resist that comment - it's great having a name that's also a part of the 4 food groups)!

I hope you don't mind for privacy sake (the Internet being such a secure place) that I don't post my last name, though I can tell you that I worked there during the entire stretch of the '80s - from the last days of 1979 until mid-1990.

In addition, I recently did get to spend a very special evening with all of my old co-workers (and even had the privilege of sitting next to Dr. Frank Marks) at the retirement dinner of NHC forecaster and old bicycle club friend Miles Lawrence (one thing to mention here - Miami, though a big city today, was considered small-town in many ways back in the 1970's and even into the 1980's, and, it wasn't unusual to know people from work through community life as well (church, recreation, etc.).

As for the 2005 season - well, I guess as they have stuck their necks out in making these long-term predictions (called forecasts), I've done the same here by saying I believe the season might be less than expected!

We'll see,

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:42 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#26 Postby weatherwindow » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:23 am

weatherwindow wrote:just a couple of comments on the 2005 synoptic....as the season progresses, it appears that we have experienced a sea change in upper-level flow(particularly when compared to the icon year of 2004). the persistent east coast ridge, which marked the height of the 04 season and reappeared in late june and early july, has been replaced by a long wave trough. an seasonably high amplitiude pattern is dominating the atlantic marked by early recurvature of eastern systems. unless this pattern reverses itself in the next couple of weeks, i strongly doubt that we will see any further western landfalls of CV systems. in general, the strongest and most persistent ridging has been present from 60deg w long to near the US coast. IMO, any US landfalling majors will have to, by necessity. be low latitude trans-caribbean systems which will tend to form between 50 and 60 deg w below 15deg n. systems forming north or east of this area will tend toward early recurvature. october may, IMO, be the hot month for cyclogenesis. the western and southwestern caribbean, in addtion to being climatologically favored for development, should be under the influence of that fairly persistent ridge referred to above. high sst and low shear would be the keys to the development of one or more major storms during the late season period. the more frequent intrusions of mid level troughs tend to impart a northerly/northeasterly motion. historically, these tracks tend to threaten fla and the northeastern GOM coast. IMHO, we will be adjusting our focus south and west for the remainder of the year............rich
...in addition to the above comments, an active early season in the carib is a likely precursor to a spike in late season activity in that basin....frank, hurricanetrack et al...comments?...rebuttal?...........rich
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#27 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:24 am

Re: Andrew92's post

...but ALL three of them got to at least 65 mph, with Franklin and Irene reaching 70 mph. Maybe they didn't look all that great for their intensities, but they were definitely not weak. 70 mph is only 4 short of a C1 hurricane, and I don't consider any hurricane weak.


That's true, but, as Dr. Lyons mentioned recently, a Category 1 hurricane is totally different from a Category 5 - similar to comparing a 5.0 tremor with a 9.0 earthquake, since the effect is exponentially greater in both cases, so, though 70 mph, the effect is much better for all than if these same tropical storms had been major hurricanes.

A good example - the recovery after Category 1 Hurricane Irene (1999) crossed South Florida was much shorter than after Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, though Irene did cause 7 deaths here in the local area - all from electrocution due to downed power lines.

Incidentially, thanks for understanding the hurricane bias of some who live down here - I'll be the first to say that it's exciting to see a hurricane develop (I'm sure that was part of the reason for my desire to work at the NHC), but, the trouble it causes when it's within a day or two from landfall, or makes landfall, is not worth the early excitement, that's for sure - as I learned the hard way, 13 years ago next week.

Frank
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#28 Postby Andrew92 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:58 am

And actually, I am now wrong on Irene.

70 mph isn't its peak. As of now, 85 mph is its peak. I'm extremely happy that it's going out to sea, but again I think this is a hint that conditions might get more favorable soon. We'll have to wait and see.....

I was 8 years old during Hurricane Andrew, and not yet interested in hurricanes; Andrew is my given name (though I go by Andy by my friends and family) and this was the storm that sparked my interest. I started tracking in 1996, so for me, the early excitement faded out after Charley. Not to say I didn't feel bad for victims of Fran, Georges, Mitch, Floyd, or some of the others, but Charley was the one that really lowered my excitement. Last year was the one year I really got sick of tracking hurricanes in fact.

So as much as some people want a hurricane to come their way, it isn't worth it, and much more worth the fish. Fortunately, I agree, that is looking like the setup for this year. Yet, I wonder if we'll have one more storm in the U.S., but maybe I'm way off the mark there.

-Andrew92
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#29 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:03 am

just a couple of comments on the 2005 synoptic....as the season progresses, it appears that we have experienced a sea change in upper-level flow(particularly when compared to the icon year of 2004). the persistent east coast ridge, which marked the height of the 04 season and reappeared in late june and early july, has been replaced by a long wave trough. an seasonably high amplitiude pattern is dominating the atlantic marked by early recurvature of eastern systems. unless this pattern reverses itself in the next couple of weeks, i strongly doubt that we will see any further western landfalls of CV systems. in general, the strongest and most persistent ridging has been present from 60deg w long to near the US coast. IMO, any US landfalling majors will have to, by necessity. be low latitude trans-caribbean systems which will tend to form between 50 and 60 deg w below 15deg n. systems forming north or east of this area will tend toward early recurvature. october may, IMO, be the hot month for cyclogenesis. the western and southwestern caribbean, in addtion to being climatologically favored for development, should be under the influence of that fairly persistent ridge referred to above. high sst and low shear would be the keys to the development of one or more major storms during the late season period. the more frequent intrusions of mid level troughs tend to impart a northerly/northeasterly motion. historically, these tracks tend to threaten fla and the northeastern GOM coast. IMHO, we will be adjusting our focus south and west for the remainder of the year............rich


good analysis but if the ridge from July builds back in for September (which it could easily do) it will be a long month. However, I tend to agree that the South and west will breed more U.S. threatening storms. So I will be looking to the GOM and Caribbean especially..
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#30 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:36 am

Re: Andrew92's post

Yes, I felt the same after my terrible encounter with Hurricane Andrew - as tornado chasers are heard to say, it only takes one bad encounter to make a person reconsider how they feel.

I must admit that it's a bit unsettling to read some of the rumblings on this board today about a possible active period coming up, but, what is fact is that the environment has been hostile towards cyclone development since Hurricane Emily (almost one month ago), so, it'll be interesting to see what actually does happen in the weeks ahead.

For the sake of my old co-workers reputations, in some way I hope they are correct (since they have infinitely more training and skill than myself, though having worked for them, hopefully their gifts rubbed off on me just a bit), but, our old HRD Director (now deceased) was always against having anything to do with these very long term predictions, since it is so easy for them to be incorrect, and only hurts the profession in the long run.

Frank
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#31 Postby beachbum_al » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:28 pm

I think in a couple of weeks we will be drinking tons of coffee and praying a lot.
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#32 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:49 pm

Frank2 wrote:Re: Andrew92's post



I must admit that it's a bit unsettling to read some of the rumblings on this board today about a possible active period coming up, but, what is fact is that the environment has been hostile towards cyclone development since Hurricane Emily (almost one month ago), so, it'll be interesting to see what actually does happen in the weeks ahead.



Frank



I'm afraid what is fact is what Derecho posted earlier on in this thread, in that conditions overall in the Atlantic basin have been favorable pretty much the entire season so far. Maybe not favorable in individual circumstances for rip-snorting Cat 4 hurricanes, but need I remind everyone here that we have had 3 tropical storms and 1 hurricane since Emily, all during these allegedly unfavorable conditions. [/b]
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#33 Postby bsuwx » Mon Aug 15, 2005 4:35 pm

agreed
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