Joe B.....Burst to start Aug 20.....Expecting 7-10 Storms

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:08 am

Joe B went out on a limb this morning stating the burst that will begin around Aug 20 will unleash 7-10 named storms.

Lots of potential for development on the models from the W GOM to Atlantic. Lots of moisture across the GOM into the Central Caribbean available to feed development.

#2 Postby **Buck** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:10 am

Interesting...

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:18 am

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:23 am

#5 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:30 am

Interesting! We shall see!!!

Hyperstorm · #6 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:47 am

It's not surprising at all. I mentioned this scenario yesterday on another thread. Based on the years since 1995, we can expect 6-10 named storms BEFORE the end of September. This is all based on climatology since a new active era of increased Atlantic hurricane activity began...

djtil · #7 Postby **djtil** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:59 am

out of the 7-10 did he predict 11 would threaten the US?

Derecho · #8 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 10:53 am

Astonishing going out on a limb like that.

I hear rumors indicating that he's calling for occasional snowstorms to begin in the Northeast in late November, and continue through early March.....

dwg71 · #9 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 10:58 am

JB, is enertaining. But he's beginning to sound like just another poster hear s2k.
Whats his time frame for these 7-10 storms, the end of the season. 2-3 weeks? what is it?

Its like reading you horoscope, fun, but not real accurate or inaccurate. Just nondescript.

sma10 · #10 Postby **sma10** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 11:15 am

dwg71 wrote:JB, is enertaining. But he's beginning to sound like just another poster hear s2k.
Whats his time frame for these 7-10 storms, the end of the season. 2-3 weeks? what is it?

Its like reading you horoscope, fun, but not real accurate or inaccurate. Just nondescript.

I think what I heard him say is he feels 7 - 10 named storms will form in the one month period starting Aug 20. Actually, that isn't such an outrageous claim because it certainly wouldn't be unheard of for a lot of storms to form between Aug 20 - Sep 20 since it IS the peak of the season. But I think he makes this claim every season so take it with a grain of salt.

My OWN opinion (for what it's worth) is that he's probably correct (though if I were a betting man I'd take closer to 7 than 10)

Tri-State_1925 · #11 Postby **Tri-State_1925** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 11:32 am

Derecho wrote:Astonishing going out on a limb like that.

I hear rumors indicating that he's calling for occasional snowstorms to begin in the Northeast in late November, and continue through early March.....

LOL, exactly what I was thinking...

#12 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 11:39 am

djtil wrote:out of the 7-10 did he predict 11 would threaten the US?

No, he said 15 would threaten the US. :lol:

rainstorm · #13 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:05 pm

actually he is playing it safe. up to this point in the season in a normal season 2-3 storms could be expected to form. considering the avg is 10, 7-10 more from this point forward is just a little above normal. the shear better let up though, or they will all be sheared naked swirls

djtil · #14 Postby **djtil** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:08 pm

No, he said 15 would threaten the US

and a full 6 to take the famed Miami to New Orleans to Denver route.

the other 9 will be spread evenly between the major population centers of the eastern sea board.

it should be a wild aug and sept.

rainstorm · #15 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:09 pm

and earlier this season i read where he said this would be a combo of 33 54 55 95 99 without recurves. 3 out of 3 ts's that could have hit the east coast have already recurved, so he is off base there. he has actually calmed down quite a bit in this prediction of 7-10 storms

LaBreeze · #16 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:21 pm

Well, with the severe lightning and thunderstorms that we're getting here, I doubt that there will be anything left in the atmosphere for any type of disturbance to generate off of. We're getting some wicked thunderstorms this afternoon - the GOM seems to be spitting mad at us and is sending lots of moisture up here. :eek:

PTrackerLA · #17 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 2:53 pm

Things sure have turned tropical in south Louisiana. In the mornings we have deep blue skies and by the afternoon widespread thunderstorms. The lightning with the one today was nothing short of INTENSE! I'd estimate we picked up a good 1" with it as well. Basically I'm thinking we're gonna see some development in the gulf soon. I know we've already had 2 "home-grown" systems but the western gulf really hasn't seen any action for the past few years as opposed to the late 90's/2000.

du1st · #18 Postby **du1st** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 3:04 pm

JB = hype

#19 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 3:17 pm

>>du1st: "JB=hype"

While I tend to agree, if I were you, I wouldn't be calling anyone anything. JMO with no malice intended.

Steve

johngaltfla · #20 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Aug 15, 2005 3:19 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Joe B went out on a limb this morning stating the burst that will begin around Aug 20 will unleash 7-10 named storms.

Lots of potential for development on the models from the W GOM to Atlantic. Lots of moisture across the GOM into the Central Caribbean available to feed development.

Heck with one, this calls for a tirple...

:eek:

Joe B.....Burst to start Aug 20.....Expecting 7-10 Storms

Joe B.....Burst to start Aug 20.....Expecting 7-10 Storms

Re: Joe B.....Burst to start Aug 20.....Expecting 7-10 Storm

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