Remnants of 10L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxman57]

Here are a few shots. Just a weak low-level swirl, still. No convection at all now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose9.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose10.gif

[clfenwi]

Definitely cannot drive nails into the coffin as long as the LLC is present.

The pocket of shear nearest to the low appears to be pulling back to the northeast (compare http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shr-1.GIF and http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF).

However, the shear that dominates the square defined by 60-70° and 20-30 ° W isn't going anywhere. Looking at a loop of water vapor imagery (from http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html ) I don't see anything that could act as a 'kicker' to push it out. That's a gloomy outlok for the low in the mid-term.

although... wrt my first sentence, note the SSD intensity estimate...

15/1745 UTC 14.8N 49.9W TOO WEAK 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

[WeatherEmperor]

Here are a few shots. Just a weak low-level swirl, still. No convection at all now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose9.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose10.gif

what do you think its chances are for every making a comeback?

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

18Z guidance...

WHXX01 KWBC 151852
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050815 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050815 1800 050816 0600 050816 1800 050817 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 49.9W 16.0N 51.6W 17.0N 53.2W 17.9N 54.7W
BAMM 14.8N 49.9W 15.6N 51.6W 16.4N 53.2W 16.9N 54.6W
A98E 14.8N 49.9W 15.4N 51.0W 16.3N 52.4W 17.3N 54.0W
LBAR 14.8N 49.9W 15.6N 51.1W 16.9N 52.7W 18.1N 54.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050817 1800 050818 1800 050819 1800 050820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 56.4W 20.6N 60.4W 22.6N 64.2W 23.8N 67.3W
BAMM 17.4N 56.3W 18.7N 60.3W 20.1N 64.7W 21.0N 68.8W
A98E 18.4N 56.0W 21.5N 60.8W 24.6N 65.8W 26.9N 69.9W
LBAR 19.3N 56.4W 22.7N 60.8W 25.8N 64.2W 27.7N 65.5W
SHIP 48KTS 62KTS 72KTS 76KTS
DSHP 48KTS 62KTS 72KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 49.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.5N LONM12 = 48.6W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 46.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[elysium]

Could route underneath the shear to the north long enough for the ridge to build in?

[wxman57]

Here are a few shots. Just a weak low-level swirl, still. No convection at all now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose9.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose10.gif

what do you think its chances are for every making a comeback?

<RICKY>

Seems to be hanging on ok. I might give it a 60% shot of recovering.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here are a few shots. Just a weak low-level swirl, still. No convection at all now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose9.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose10.gif

what do you think its chances are for every making a comeback?

<RICKY>

Seems to be hanging on ok. I might give it a 60% shot of recovering.

sorry to bug you once again, but could you give me your analysis for the short term future path of the remnants and when and under what conditions at that point it will be more favorable for some redevelopment?

<RICKY>