My forecast for TD 10.

[du1st]

I think TD10 will reform in 3 days while shear will keep it at bay. Pretty much I would say if it forms it will be a fish. Comments appreciated. This isn't an offical forecast and always listen to the NHC for offical info.

[du1st]

In other words this may be like Irene.

[deltadog03]

well, assuming it does develop, i think your fish theory is VERY premature!!

[elysium]

You should usually nullify your forecast first before postiing, if it's any more detailed than that. I found that out the hard way yesterday.

Don't know how to click and drag the disclaimer. Anyway, I don't know if what I am about to say is a forecast as such. I was just wondering if anyone thinks that there will be a weakness in the ridge on day 7 and 8. The NWS is having a hard time right now trying to figure out whether the trough that is forecast to move off the east coast on day 8 will dig deep enough to weaken the ridge. The GFS is flipping all over.

I have to agree that there will be some weakening on day 8. Does anyone think that TD 10 will stall, slowdown, or turn to the north in response to the day 8 trough or ridge weakness? The answer to that question might be the determining factor in where TD 10 ultimately heads.

Is it possible that the trough will not effect the ridge south of 25N? After the trough quickly clears out, the ridge will quickly fill in according to every long range model. Even if the ridge doesn't quickly refill, the models; and I am in agreement with them; all show nothing that would recurve TD 10. Would it be correct to assume that the weakness in the ridge would be the determing factor in whether or not entry is gained by TD 10 into the GOM? No?

I need the answer to some of these questions before offering my unofficial forecast. All answers to these questions greatly appreciated.

[du1st]

You should usually nullify your forecast first before postiing, if it's any more detailed than that. I found that out the hard way yesterday.

Don't know how to click and drag the disclaimer. Anyway, I don't know if what I am about to say is a forecast as such. I was just wondering if anyone thinks that there will be a weakness in the ridge on day 7 and 8. The NWS is having a hard time right now trying to figure out whether the trough that is forecast to move off the east coast on day 8 will dig deep enough to weaken the ridge. The GFS is flipping all over.

I have to agree that there will be some weakening on day 8. Does anyone think that TD 10 will stall, slowdown, or turn to the north in response to the day 8 trough or ridge weakness? The answer to that question might be the determining factor in where TD 10 ultimately heads.

Is it possible that the trough will not effect the ridge south of 25N? After the trough quickly clears out, the ridge will quickly fill in according to every long range model. Even if the ridge doesn't quickly refill, the models; and I am in agreement with them; all show nothing that would recurve TD 10. Would it be correct to assume that the weakness in the ridge would be the determing factor in whether or not entry is gained by TD 10 into the GOM? No?

I need the answer to some of these questions before offering my unofficial forecast. All answers to these questions greatly appreciated.

Hey ellsium you can get the disclamer by copying and pasting the disclaimer from the sticky called all posters read this.

[jrod]

My amatuer eyes(cough...discalimer..cough) sees strong easterlies and a huge ridge. If or when TD 10 gets it act together it should accelerate with probaly a due west motion and may make it into the gulf. There is potential for this storm to be a hurricane and perhaps a major one.

[fci]

You should usually nullify your forecast first before postiing, if it's any more detailed than that. I found that out the hard way yesterday.

Don't know how to click and drag the disclaimer. Anyway, I don't know if what I am about to say is a forecast as such. I was just wondering if anyone thinks that there will be a weakness in the ridge on day 7 and 8. The NWS is having a hard time right now trying to figure out whether the trough that is forecast to move off the east coast on day 8 will dig deep enough to weaken the ridge. The GFS is flipping all over.

I have to agree that there will be some weakening on day 8. Does anyone think that TD 10 will stall, slowdown, or turn to the north in response to the day 8 trough or ridge weakness? The answer to that question might be the determining factor in where TD 10 ultimately heads.

Is it possible that the trough will not effect the ridge south of 25N? After the trough quickly clears out, the ridge will quickly fill in according to every long range model. Even if the ridge doesn't quickly refill, the models; and I am in agreement with them; all show nothing that would recurve TD 10. Would it be correct to assume that the weakness in the ridge would be the determing factor in whether or not entry is gained by TD 10 into the GOM? No?

I need the answer to some of these questions before offering my unofficial forecast. All answers to these questions greatly appreciated.

Hey ellsium you can get the disclamer by copying and pasting the disclaimer from the sticky called all posters read this.

First, I encourage you to copy and paste the disclaimer at the top of your forecast. You will come under considerably less heat if you do so.

As for your question on the former TD10; you are assuming that it will regenerate. I don't see a justification for making that assumption at this time.

Finally, ridges on Day 8?
Take a dartboard put all of the options in different sectors, close your eyes, spin around 5 times, make sure you are facing forward (so you don't accidentally nail some innocent bystander) and throw the dart. Then use that option as your answer.
It's probably as good as any other method!



Oh, and try not to be so out there with your projections; "TD10 a major hurricane strongest of the season" .......
And if you do make such a bold prediction, try not to do a 180 the same day. If you really believe in your convictions enough to forecast them in a post; they can't possibly fall apart in a few hours!

[ROCK]

You should usually nullify your forecast first before postiing, if it's any more detailed than that. I found that out the hard way yesterday.

Don't know how to click and drag the disclaimer. Anyway, I don't know if what I am about to say is a forecast as such. I was just wondering if anyone thinks that there will be a weakness in the ridge on day 7 and 8. The NWS is having a hard time right now trying to figure out whether the trough that is forecast to move off the east coast on day 8 will dig deep enough to weaken the ridge. The GFS is flipping all over.

I have to agree that there will be some weakening on day 8. Does anyone think that TD 10 will stall, slowdown, or turn to the north in response to the day 8 trough or ridge weakness? The answer to that question might be the determining factor in where TD 10 ultimately heads.

Is it possible that the trough will not effect the ridge south of 25N? After the trough quickly clears out, the ridge will quickly fill in according to every long range model. Even if the ridge doesn't quickly refill, the models; and I am in agreement with them; all show nothing that would recurve TD 10. Would it be correct to assume that the weakness in the ridge would be the determing factor in whether or not entry is gained by TD 10 into the GOM? No?

I need the answer to some of these questions before offering my unofficial forecast. All answers to these questions greatly appreciated.

Hey ellsium you can get the disclamer by copying and pasting the disclaimer from the sticky called all posters read this.

First, I encourage you to copy and paste the disclaimer at the top of your forecast. You will come under considerably less heat if you do so.

As for your question on the former TD10; you are assuming that it will regenerate. I don't see a justification for making that assumption at this time.

Finally, ridges on Day 8?
Take a dartboard put all of the options in different sectors, close your eyes, spin around 5 times, make sure you are facing forward (so you don't accidentally nail some innocent bystander) and throw the dart. Then use that option as your answer.
It's probably as good as any other method!



Oh, and try not to be so out there with your projections; "TD10 a major hurricane strongest of the season" .......
And if you do make such a bold prediction, try not to do a 180 the same day. If you really believe in your convictions enough to forecast them in a post; they can't possibly fall apart in a few hours!

Can we get over some of "E"s prior post. I am sure all of us (me included) have made claims that seemed far fetched at one time or another. And yes, we have all flip flopped with the models so this is no different.

I would have to comend "E" on this post. Not as mind boggleing as the last and definitely had some legit questions to ask.
I have seen alot more OUT THERE predictions than this. Your getting better.

As far as your comment "I don't see a justification for making that assumption at this time". What justification do you need? X-TD10 still is maintaining a vigorous LLC (ala Irene) and could possibly reform if A.) the shear relaxes and the B.) convection is allowed to re-form around it. Irene looked to have it alot worse but still managed

In closing, I might add once again everyone is entitled to their opinion. "E" has had a rough go at it here in 2K but should not be continuously bashed for some of his prior posting.

[boca]

I agree we all make mistakes so let this go.

[gatorcane]

I agree we all make mistakes so let this go.

Boca this storm has the highest chances of impacting the SE coast of FL than any storm this year. A massive ridge will be developing in 3-5 days to the north that will push it west.

I sincerely hope Jose is no way or the SE coast of the US and particulary the E coast of FL should watch out.

[gatorcane]

The UKM at 144 Hrs showing a system albeit weak approaching S. Florida and a solid ridge holding to the North of it:
[url]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr[/url]

[Marilyn]

You should usually nullify your forecast first before postiing, if it's any more detailed than that. I found that out the hard way yesterday.

Don't know how to click and drag the disclaimer. Anyway, I don't know if what I am about to say is a forecast as such. I was just wondering if anyone thinks that there will be a weakness in the ridge on day 7 and 8. The NWS is having a hard time right now trying to figure out whether the trough that is forecast to move off the east coast on day 8 will dig deep enough to weaken the ridge. The GFS is flipping all over.

I have to agree that there will be some weakening on day 8. Does anyone think that TD 10 will stall, slowdown, or turn to the north in response to the day 8 trough or ridge weakness? The answer to that question might be the determining factor in where TD 10 ultimately heads.

Is it possible that the trough will not effect the ridge south of 25N? After the trough quickly clears out, the ridge will quickly fill in according to every long range model. Even if the ridge doesn't quickly refill, the models; and I am in agreement with them; all show nothing that would recurve TD 10. Would it be correct to assume that the weakness in the ridge would be the determing factor in whether or not entry is gained by TD 10 into the GOM? No?

I need the answer to some of these questions before offering my unofficial forecast. All answers to these questions greatly appreciated.

Hey ellsium you can get the disclamer by copying and pasting the disclaimer from the sticky called all posters read this.

First, I encourage you to copy and paste the disclaimer at the top of your forecast. You will come under considerably less heat if you do so.

As for your question on the former TD10; you are assuming that it will regenerate. I don't see a justification for making that assumption at this time.

Finally, ridges on Day 8?
Take a dartboard put all of the options in different sectors, close your eyes, spin around 5 times, make sure you are facing forward (so you don't accidentally nail some innocent bystander) and throw the dart. Then use that option as your answer.
It's probably as good as any other method!



Oh, and try not to be so out there with your projections; "TD10 a major hurricane strongest of the season" .......
And if you do make such a bold prediction, try not to do a 180 the same day. If you really believe in your convictions enough to forecast them in a post; they can't possibly fall apart in a few hours!

Can we get over some of "E"s prior post. I am sure all of us (me included) have made claims that seemed far fetched at one time or another. And yes, we have all flip flopped with the models so this is no different.

I would have to comend "E" on this post. Not as mind boggleing as the last and definitely had some legit questions to ask.
I have seen alot more OUT THERE predictions than this. Your getting better.

As far as your comment "I don't see a justification for making that assumption at this time". What justification do you need? X-TD10 still is maintaining a vigorous LLC (ala Irene) and could possibly reform if A.) the shear relaxes and the B.) convection is allowed to re-form around it. Irene looked to have it alot worse but still managed

In closing, I might add once again everyone is entitled to their opinion. "E" has had a rough go at it here in 2K but should not be continuously bashed for some of his prior posting.

I Agree, why have they bashed him when others are making the same statements.

[mahicks]

1. Plz use a disclaimer...

2. I feel....IF and ONLY IF he regenerates.....He WILL become Jose, but most definitely WILL NOT RE-CURVE...

3. Here is my disclaimer for #2...My above forecast is generated by a newbie idiot...For you to think that I may be correct will result in automatic death for being dumber than the poster.

A quote from Billy Madison is in order (For My forecast, not yours)...."At no time during your constant ramblings and incoherent thoughts did you even come close to making anything close to a rational thought. All of us in this room is now dumber for having to listen to you....I award you no point, and may god have mercy on your soul..."

[Jim Cantore]

I think this will hit florida but it's way too early and I put a confidence level of 5% in it

It could do anything at this point

[gkrangers]

I think this will hit florida but it's way too early and I put a confidence level of 5% in it

It could do anything at this point

I see you are using the dart board method.

[SouthFloridawx]

hey somtimes using the dartboard method can be effective. I mean come on that is what NHC did with Irene.

[ConvergenceZone]

I found Irene to be one of the most boring storms to track, perhaps that's just due to appearance. I know I shouldn't judge by appearance, but if a storm is going to be a fish and go out to sea, I prefer the classic buzzsaw cat 3 + appearance. Those make great wallpaper images

[du1st]

esslyum shouldn't get bashed and you did the sane thing to me which you shouldn't have.

[NastyCat4]

He WILL become Jose, but most definitely WILL NOT RE-CURVE...

"Most Definitely" will not recurve? Wow, you should play the power ball. With assuredness like that, Max Mayfield can sleep easy, and leave the forecasts to you.

NOTHING is certain in the tropics. IF TD 10 re-develops, it has thousands of miles it may pick to traverse, and nothing is definite, nor is it even likely at this point.

[gatorcane]

"Most Definitely" will not recurve? Wow, you should play the power ball. With assuredness like that, Max Mayfield can sleep easy, and leave the forecasts to you.

NOTHING is certain in the tropics. IF TD 10 re-develops, it has thousands of miles it may pick to traverse, and nothing is definite, nor is it even likely at this point.

Nasty Cat he has got some support though...if you look at the bermuda ridge, it is forecasted to build in a big way over the next several days so unless TD 10 can find a weakness before it gets caught up in it, it will head W in the general direction of FL