Is my area of the gulf going to shut down?

[Galvestongirl]

I have heard that a cool front is making its way down here...does this mean this part of the gulf will shut down due to the westerlies? Usually, in my past experiences, after the first cool front we dont normally get any tropical action. comments anyone?

[Steve]

I wouldn't bet any money on it. An early season front, if anything, could promote development that way (not saying it will since I didn't even know one was headed through Galevston).

Steve

[susan]

Where did you hear a cold front was going to make it this far south this week?

[Galvestongirl]

I was talking to a person who does tours in galveston and he stated that it was cloudy and thundering because a cool front was trying to push its way down here.

[vbhoutex]

The rain and thunder today are the result of our normal sea breeze fronts moving in from the GOM, not a cold front coming through the area.

[Galvestongirl]

ahh haaa.....so he was wrong..lol, I thought it was funny to get a cold front this early., But, to my question....will the cold fromt cause westerlies which will shut it down?

[vbhoutex]

As far as I know there is no cold front expected to make it this far south within the next week, so at this point I would say no. It did happen last year, but it doesn't look like it is going to be so early this year.

[KatDaddy]

Way to early in the season. The Houston-Galveston Area could still get blasted this season but hopefully not. As Steve stated early season fronts that do make it offshore can promote tropical development. The waters are extremely warm over the NW GOM.

[susan]

There is a stationary front over the Panhandle of Texas which probably won't make it any further...The rain we have been getting is not from that, though...

[TS Zack]

If anything forms in the BOC or Southern GOM, it will head towards Texas/Mexico!

[webke]

The TWC just said that due to the large ULL that no development is expected in the near future.

[beachbum_al]

Cold Front in the South East Coastal States this early and I think I will be eating some crows. It is so hot here I don't think that is it. Maybe a heat wave.

[susan]

Here is a discussion from the Houston/Galveston NOAA
.DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR
31N93W. EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF
29N BETWEEN 84W-97W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
86W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM
22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEWD TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 50 KT NLY JET IS ON THE W SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST AND SHOULD SERVE TO
REINFORCE THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY.

[Jim Cantore]

If a storm moves into the Gulf between now and early october there will be some big probs the gulf is a giant bath tub now

[Stratosphere747]

If a storm moves into the Gulf between now and early october there will be some big probs the gulf is a giant bath tub now

It's not all about the SST's....

Although it is a significant ingredient of a major hurricane, it does need some help..

To many times people focus on the heat content of the waters and not the overall atmospheric conditions....

[Jim Cantore]

The only problem storms have hit in the gulf was dry air (Arlene Dennis and a bit with Emily)

if the sheer and dry air stay out of the way we could have some problems

Right conditions a storm could shoot from 75-140 in 24 hours

[Stratosphere747]

The only problem storms have hit in the gulf was dry air (Arlene Dennis and a bit with Emily)

if the sheer and dry air stay out of the way we could have some problems

Right conditions a storm could shoot from 75-140 in 24 hours

Those tend to be a bit of a factor of developing major storms...

Maybe you could elaborate on how a impending 75mph storm would shoot up to a 140mph storm within 24hrs?

[Jim Cantore]

Remember opal? 105-150 overnight

Those kind of conditions with even warmer water that we have this year could spark an explosion in a hurricane

Charley 110 to 145 in 3 hours same point

I could picture a massive intensification such as the 24 hour 75-140 I mentioned with perfect conditions and the 85-90 degree water temps in the gulf

It's not out of the question but the chances we actully have that absolutly perfect setup isn't a gimme

Maybe 75-125/130 is more realistic

[SouthFloridawx]

no cold fronts heading to the GOM

[Stratosphere747]

Remember opal? 105-150 overnight

Those kind of conditions with even warmer water that we have this year could spark an explosion in a hurricane

Charley 110 to 145 in 3 hours same point

I could picture a massive intensification such as the 24 hour 75-140 I mentioned with perfect conditions and the 85-90 degree water temps in the gulf

It's not out of the question but the chances we actully have that absolutly perfect setup isn't a gimme

Maybe 75-125/130 is more realistic

I remember those storms and many more quite clearly HFloyd....

My response to you was about the SST's and how the atmospheric conditions ultimately will be the deciding factor.

The Gulf of Mexico has been a "giant bathtub" for many years.