TD 10...Back Again

[ConvergenceZone]

I also wanted to add that while I think a landfall at Florida is possible, I think further up the east coast would be more likely due to it's current direction and position.

[sma10]

I think the last model plot someone posted earlier this evening shows that it will NOT be a fish like it was predicted earlier. Perhaps this is due to the weakened state of the storm, but it does not look like a fish any longer, but then again, it may not develop into anything, but it doesn't look like a fish according to the latest model plots of the wave

I kinda doubt the models have a very good handle on things this far out. Its way to early to talk about landfall...

But the models WERE run at 00z...

850
WHXX01 KWBC 160404
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050816 0000 050816 1200 050817 0000 050817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 50.3W 16.3N 52.3W 17.2N 54.1W 18.0N 55.9W
BAMM 15.2N 50.3W 16.1N 52.2W 17.1N 53.9W 17.9N 55.8W
A98E 15.2N 50.3W 15.9N 51.5W 16.7N 53.0W 17.9N 54.5W
LBAR 15.2N 50.3W 16.1N 51.6W 17.3N 53.1W 18.6N 54.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050818 0000 050819 0000 050820 0000 050821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.9N 57.9W 20.8N 62.0W 22.4N 65.7W 23.4N 69.4W
BAMM 18.8N 57.6W 20.7N 61.5W 22.2N 65.2W 23.0N 68.9W
A98E 19.5N 56.3W 23.4N 60.3W 27.2N 64.2W 30.3N 66.1W
LBAR 20.1N 56.9W 23.6N 60.5W 26.6N 63.0W 28.0N 63.7W
SHIP 46KTS 59KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 46KTS 59KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 50.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 49.3W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 47.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Son of a gun! Buy why would they run it at midnight?!? Good catch!

P.S. Still turns this skeleton into a hurricane in 4 days?? Interesting that the BAMM and BAMD are on top of each other.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its much more organized then that tropical wave named Irene for about 3 days. At least the quickscats show it to have a LLC. So I think this given a chance has more of a chance then Irene. So we will see.

[sma10]

I have not yet seen 00Z 16 Aug models for Euro or Uk....but amongst the ones I have seen (CMC, GFS, Nogaps) all show north turn. Their early interpretations obviously show weaker ridging down the road.

[gkrangers]

I have not yet seen 00Z 16 Aug models for Euro or Uk....but amongst the ones I have seen (CMC, GFS, Nogaps) all show north turn. Their early interpretations obviously show weaker ridging down the road.

Yeah..strong ridging over the southern gulf states, and out into the central-eastern Atlantic. With a weakness near Bermuda...and TD10 would find that weakness...which is why I'm leaning against landfall right now, if I had to make a call.

I'm interested to see the Euro and UKMET...UKMET because it has it so far west and south at 12z, and the ECMWF because its been flip flopping between a strong western Atlantic ridge and basically no western atlantic ridge...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Right on time.

16/0615 UTC 15.5N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 10

[george_r_1961]

Models are all wrong at this point. Look at the heading they have on it from the start. They are treating this system like it is a organized cyclone, which it isn't.

This thing will not head out to sea, that is for sure.

Gonna have to agree with u there Zack. Its very disorganized and isnt reflected in the upper levels well at all. Consequently it will be steered by the trade winds for several days. Then it could move into an area more favorable for development. No this system is not dead yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

408
WHXX01 KWBC 160652
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050816 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050816 0600 050816 1800 050817 0600 050817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 51.1W 16.6N 52.7W 17.4N 54.2W 18.2N 55.8W
BAMM 15.5N 51.1W 16.3N 52.7W 17.0N 54.4W 17.8N 56.0W
A98E 15.5N 51.1W 16.3N 52.5W 17.1N 54.0W 18.2N 55.6W
LBAR 15.5N 51.1W 16.4N 52.3W 17.5N 53.7W 18.9N 55.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050818 0600 050819 0600 050820 0600 050821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.1N 57.6W 20.9N 61.3W 22.4N 64.7W 23.2N 67.9W
BAMM 18.4N 57.8W 20.0N 61.7W 21.3N 65.5W 22.2N 69.2W
A98E 19.6N 57.4W 23.1N 61.5W 26.4N 65.4W 29.0N 68.0W
LBAR 20.3N 57.7W 23.8N 61.1W 26.3N 63.5W 27.9N 64.1W
SHIP 47KTS 59KTS 68KTS 73KTS
DSHP 47KTS 59KTS 68KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 51.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 48.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



If this thing could just stall for about 12 hours then it would be favable enough for development. The TUTT/weakness is slowly slowly but surely moving westward.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its getting more favable for it. But this stupid storm is moving right into the teeth of the shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[gkrangers]

The shear looks a little better once TD10 gets to around 20N/60W. It'd be nice if it picked up speed and moved more quickly to the WNW....but I wouldn't expect any development for another 48 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Really if it can stay slow in south of 17 north. The enviroment appears that it could become favable enough for some development. But knowing this storm it will go northwest right into it.


Also looking at the shear maps that shear is going westward. So if it go's northwest it may not become favable for days. But if it stays slow in to the south. Its chances go up.

[sma10]

I don't mean to suggest that things are becoming favorable yet, but have you noticed that the shear right near the system has abated just a tiny bit this evening?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes...If it stays south while that trough axis moves northwestward out. Then Enviroment is going to become better. If this thing can stay slow for another 12 to 24 hours then it will likely of made it. Thats by my thinking of the shear maps. 10 to 20 knot decreases near the storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

with all of the great activity getting ready to move off the Africa coast and being that we are in a more favorable time and better conditions for those waves developing, TD 10 will be quickly forgotten, even if it develops into something weak.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Irene was weaker then this. Then look in booom a 80 knot hurricane she becomes.

[gkrangers]

Look for a chance at development in 36-48 hours.

The GFS has considerably less shear to the NW of TD10, in the area it'll be moving into by then.

If I'm reading it right...so we'll see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 160914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[storm4u]

well we will see what happens!!

[webke]

I'm back!!!!!

[webke]

I'm back!!!!!