TD 10...Back Again

[wxman57]

21:32 UTC

I just want to point out that you need to be very careful using QuickSCAT imagery. Yes, this is a 21:32UTC image, but it isn't from Monday, it's from Sunday afternoon. Note that the LLC is south of 14N and east of 48? That's where it was Sunday afternoon. On Monday at 21Z it was near 15N/50W. So that image above is well over 24 hours old. Another clue is that the web page was updated at 19:42 UTC (according to the time at the top), but the image is from a later time than when the page was made, indicating that the image below the 19:42 UTC time is greater than 24 hours old.

That's not to say TD 10 isn't apparently redevleoping today, looks like it is to me. Here's a new visible imagery. You can clearly see the center is now just under the convection:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose11.gif

[cycloneye]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

Way to go Watkins!!! hows that limb your hanging from??? lol... J/J


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep. Looks like the limb just broke off the tree. I crawled too far out.

To use a poker analogy...looks like I am drawing dead. No way this even gets close to TD status in the next 24-36 hours...the environment is as hostile as ever and the LLC is completely exposed well southwest of what is left over from the convection.

I haven't had a very good few days...glad all of my bad calls are happening with systems well away from land.

MW

Hey Mike your forecast may be right after all.

[dixiebreeze]

Mike W. is definitely right, according to the 5:30 a.m. update today. Jose is very likely on the way.

[Nimbus]

Looking at the water vapor loop this morning the upper level flow to the west of 10 that was shearing the system has slowed in the last few frames.
When is the ridge forecast to build back in over the east coast behind Irene?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think its a tropical cyclone again. But the bad news for this system is with the organizion it is now moving faster to the west. Which is moving it into the teeth of the shear. You can already see the shear starting to displace the convection a little. Expect this over the next few hours be sheared to death again. No tropical depression today at this rate.

Here is my reasoning. The upper high that is building is to the southeast of the LLC. While the systems get more organized it moves back into the shear to the northwest.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Thunder44]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

MW said it would be TD by 2pm yesterday, so he was wrong at that time. The question hasn't been so much if it will redevelop but when will it redevelop.

Way to go Watkins!!! hows that limb your hanging from??? lol... J/J


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep. Looks like the limb just broke off the tree. I crawled too far out.

To use a poker analogy...looks like I am drawing dead. No way this even gets close to TD status in the next 24-36 hours...the environment is as hostile as ever and the LLC is completely exposed well southwest of what is left over from the convection.

I haven't had a very good few days...glad all of my bad calls are happening with systems well away from land.

MW

Hey Mike your forecast may be right after all.

[HURAKAN]

Now, ex-TD 10 looks in the process of regeneration than 24 hours ago. Lets see if shear gives room to intensification.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That looks like a tropical cyclone to me.

But of course the shear is likely to shear it apart again.

[cycloneye]

That looks like a tropical cyclone to me.

But of course the shear is likely to shear it apart again.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Matt the folks of NHC dont have the same thinking as you.

[HURAKAN]

Over the past 24 hours the shear in front of our struggling system has been decreasing, thereafter, if this pattern continues over the next 24 hours, ex-TD 10 may not suffer from a lot of shear.

[cycloneye]

16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

[WeatherEmperor]

16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

Luis what does that mean? Is it back to TD?

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No its the same as it was when it was a bunch of disorganized convection with a weak LLC last night. No change to show the organizion.

[WeatherEmperor]

No its the same as it was when it was a bunch of disorganized convection with a weak LLC last night. No change to show the organizion.

what do you think its chances are of becoming a TD before days end?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

Luis what does that mean? Is it back to TD?

<RICKY>

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

At link is a chart of the different T numbers and what they represent.For ex 10 TD not quite yet.1.0 yields 25kts.

[Thunder44]

Luis where are the other agencies estimates? Post the link.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't went to get into "trouble". But if that was in the Gulf of Mexico. I would put good money on it being a 35 knot tropical storm or maybe a little more(Be recon data)...But thats another story. Most likely every where else a strong depression. If it keeps organizing that area of convection over its LLC(Well defined should I say) it should be upgraded fairly soon.

But you also have to remember that they don't went to upgrade then down grade 6 hours later. So its a hard call. I say 5pm.

[cycloneye]

Luis where are the other agencies estimates? Post the link.

I dont remember from whee I got that link and from what agency is . but here it is.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/TPNT/KGWC.TXT

[boca]

The million dollar question is which way will xTD10 go. Will it head towards Florida with the building ridge or will it take a path like Irene.Experts some insight please.

[Thunder44]

Luis where are the other agencies estimates? Post the link.

I dont remember from whee I got that link and from what agency is . but here it is.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/TPNT/KGWC.TXT

That's what I was looking for. Thanks.