TD 10...Back Again

[jabber]

The million dollar question is which way will xTD10 go. Will it head towards Florida with the building ridge or will it take a path like Irene.Experts some insight please.

Looking at the steering flows, looks pretty much wnw to w, unless it finds a weakness:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey have any of you seen this mornings 12Z model runs for TD10? They are late and it would be strange if they stopped running the models on this thing. Cause yesterday when it was so disorganized they ran the models and now that its more organized they stop? Anyways any of you seen them yet?

<RICKY>

[Typhoon_Willie]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[MWatkins]

Couple of quick notes to pass along.

TAFB at 1145Z...using shear pattern analysis...has the center at 16.0 51.9 at T=2.0 or tropical depression strength (30 knots).

SAB is fixing the center at 15.9 51.9 at t 1.0....

It's getting there...the upper environment is still modifying...but it has a fighting chance at coming back sometime today.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Couple of quick notes to pass along.

TAFB at 1145Z...using shear pattern analysis...has the center at 16.0 51.9 at T=2.0 or tropical depression strength (30 knots).

SAB is fixing the center at 15.9 51.9 at t 1.0....

It's getting there...the upper environment is still modifying...but it has a fighting chance at coming back sometime today.

MW

In your honest opinion, will this be a TD once again before today is done?

<RICKY>

[boca]

TD10 is holding its own.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MWatkins]

Couple of quick notes to pass along.

TAFB at 1145Z...using shear pattern analysis...has the center at 16.0 51.9 at T=2.0 or tropical depression strength (30 knots).

SAB is fixing the center at 15.9 51.9 at t 1.0....

It's getting there...the upper environment is still modifying...but it has a fighting chance at coming back sometime today.

MW

In your honest opinion, will this be a TD once again before today is done?

<RICKY>

Yes I believe the probability is pretty good. I think it is a TD now...the question is whether or not the resume public advisories. If the thunderstorm activity persists throughout the afternoon they I would guess we'll be back by 5PM...

MW

[gatorcane]

Watkins, there has been some talk about TD 10 not moving out to sea due to strengthening Bermuda ridge. Actually there's been talk of it curving W down the road....can you comment?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Couple of quick notes to pass along.

TAFB at 1145Z...using shear pattern analysis...has the center at 16.0 51.9 at T=2.0 or tropical depression strength (30 knots).

SAB is fixing the center at 15.9 51.9 at t 1.0....

It's getting there...the upper environment is still modifying...but it has a fighting chance at coming back sometime today.

MW

In your honest opinion, will this be a TD once again before today is done?

<RICKY>

Yes I believe the probability is pretty good. I think it is a TD now...the question is whether or not the resume public advisories. If the thunderstorm activity persists throughout the afternoon they I would guess we'll be back by 5PM...

MW

I know its Early MW but where is she headed? in the short to mid term? and what sympnotic setup do you see ahead?

[gatorcane]

From Jabber's post:

Looking at the steering flows, looks pretty much wnw to w, unless it finds a weakness:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[boca]

Mike what's your thinking on TD10?

[clfenwi]

No its the same as it was when it was a bunch of disorganized convection with a weak LLC last night. No change to show the organizion.

No, last night (2345Z) it was "TOO WEAK" . Last time it merited 1.0 was 1145Z yesterday morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No at 6:UTC something it was still 1.0! In it looked not even closed to what it is now. The center on this is also to far south. It is a 2.0 at least.

[clfenwi]

No at 6:UTC something it was still 1.0! In it looked not even closed to what it is now. The center on this is also to far south. It is a 2.0 at least.

15/0615 UTC 14.7N 48.3W T1.5/1.5 10
15/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.3W T1.0/1.5 10
15/1745 UTC 14.8N 49.9W TOO WEAK 10
15/2345 UTC 15.1N 50.3W TOO WEAK 10
16/0615 UTC 15.5N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 10
16/1145 UTC 15.9N 51.9W T1.0/1.0 10

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tafb said 2.0 it also placed the center where it is.

[x-y-no]

No at 6:UTC something it was still 1.0! In it looked not even closed to what it is now. The center on this is also to far south. It is a 2.0 at least.

Looks to me like the center is exposed again, just SW of the bottom of the old convection burst, about 60nm or a bit more SE of the new burst.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is something we have all come to expect from tropical depression 10.

[cinlfla]

[ts_kakolina]

[/img]

[WeatherEmperor]

good. so the 12Z models did come out afterall. I was just a bit worried cause the weather net-waves site didnt have them updated. But they look pretty similar to the 6Z runs.

<RICKY>