Where Are The Tropical Waves in South Florida?

[gatorcane]

I don't recall S. Florida seeing a single wave so far this year...usually at least a few go by already which pick up the E winds from typical 10-15 to like 15-20 mph....and increase the Atlantic shower activity...

Besides some of July where Dennis was on the map, the easterlies have been non-existent in Florida this year....much, much, different than last year.

Maybe this pattern will wait a few weeks until September to really get going?

[gkrangers]

Isn't this like the 10th time you've made a thread like this?

[gatorcane]

maybe the 11th

[SouthFloridawx]

I think it has been boring... I'm in boynton and not much rain here from the tropics except last month...

[Patrick99]

There have been waves. They just haven't given us much rain. There have also been plenty of TUTTs to roll across...which seem to do nothing but make us more dry.

Seems to be a pretty good easterly surge *now*.....if there was anything out there, I'd give us a pretty good chance of getting it.

[gatorcane]

How about TD 10 down the road?

[boca]

It has to develop first then the model runs.

[gatorcane]

some of the model runs from a day or so ago showed it moving WNW and then bending W into the eastern bahamas. A couple had it moving WNW and then NW like Irene

[gatorcane]

any model runs for TD 10 we can post here?

[boca]

none yet

[EDR1222]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



There are some indications of a deep easterly flow returning to the area according to local forecast discussions. The bad part is, it is going to be hot and dry for an extended period of time, especially on the east coast of Florida as we rarely benefit from seabreeze initiated storms that move inland. However, it seems reasonable to assume that this pattern would increase the chances for any waves that might be in the area to move across the state. It will be interesting to see if the pattern they are talking about begins to takes hold, similar to the way it did last September. Please read discussions from the National Weather Service, Melbourne, FL for official information.

[gatorcane]

Ridge is building in....this is why TD 10 may bend W down the road....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

[boca]

What site did you get that wind profile map from?

[gatorcane]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic

[WeatherEmperor]

You could be right boca chris. Pretty much all of the runs with TD10 show that most of the global models develop some sort of ridge which would bring TD10 on a more W or WNW track. Dont know about FL but gotta watch out for this one especially if it regeneretes sooner then thought.

<RICKY>

[boca]

The comment about no tropical waves in Florida is true. If you look East of the Bahamas their is a tail from hurricane Irene moving west and if it holds together it might be our 1st tropical wave.

[gatorcane]

The comment about no tropical waves in Florida is true. If you look East of the Bahamas their is a tail from hurricane Irene moving west and if it holds together it might be our 1st tropical wave

.

great! I want some more wind for a change

[EDR1222]

It would be nice to see one come through and maybe bring a little wind and rain and cool off the temperatures some,

[artist]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[gatorcane]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png