TD 10...Back Again

[gatorcane]

[WeatherEmperor]

I wouldnt concern myself all too much with this thing just yet. Its days and days out there and it has yet to redevelop into TD10(although some would argue it already has).

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

TD 10 has some convection blowing up on the NW side over the past couple of hours...

[cycloneye]

NT20 KNHC 161505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD REGENERATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Thunder44]

168
NOUS42 KNHC 161400 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-080 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1 NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 20N AND 60W. -- ADDED

Recon flight possible on Thursday.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Not concerned yet since we don't have a cyclone based on data. Although it is likely that 6 more hours of persistent convection make it official. The recon invest area is right on the old 20/60 rule bullseye though. I'll go so far as to predict that we'll have a strong TS by the time recon gets there.

[x-y-no]

Not concerned yet since we don't have a cyclone based on data. Although it is likely that 6 more hours of persistent convection make it official. The recon invest area is right on the old 20/60 rule bullseye though. I'll go so far as to predict that we'll have a strong TS by the time recon gets there.

I noticed that 20N/60W also ...

Not to read too much into it, but that's on the left side of the envelope.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

the models are taking into the weakness in the ridge. Do you think it will close up and possible td10 will go under the ridge or will the ridge remain weak and then possible td10 goes up up and away?

[clfenwi]

Key word in the POD addition is 'near' ...20/60 is just a nice round reference point, pretty much guaranteed to be correct +/- 2.5° or so... worth noting here that "official (OFCI) track" brings the possible tropical cyclone across 20° N just east of 58° E and across 60° at around 22° N or so.

[SouthFloridawx]

the navy says

[BensonTCwatcher]

Of course, this far out a few degrees will not matter. The models have verfied a right bias on weaker systems, that is kind of a wash on the envelope thing. Also this years synoptics have mauled these systems. Since I feel that the pattern is just now changing ( look at the mid atlantic ridging.) we are likely to see this develop. Also the fact that is near the 20/60 mark increases the chance for US landfall IMO. I also think at this point the GFS may have a good handle on the ridge development. It has wanted to pull it together later in the run. The ridge looks like what the GFS has at this point ( more or less)

[wxman57]

Just a quick post. The previous LLC appears to be dissipating. Convection blew up northwest of the previous center, but I don't see any LLC there. In fact, there's an outflow boundary eminating from the convection to the northwest that will be interfering with what's left of the LLC shortly. Looking more like a wave as of 10:30am CDT.

Here's a McIdas image with arrows indicating cloud element motions:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose13.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

we will have to wait for the QS pass to see if there is still a low level circulation.

[clfenwi]

the navy says

(snip graphic)

That is the last forecast by NHC on TD10 before it was declared dissipated...note the Date-Time Group in the upper right-hand corner... 140600Z...

[BensonTCwatcher]

The eastern component of the ridge is shifting W

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

while the lower level winds are pushing NW. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8v4km.html that, to me woudl keep this moving NW until it gains height and then follows the ridge which will tend to continue to shift west as Irene moves east/NE

[ added]provided it holds together....

[Derek Ortt]

that old LLC likely has dissipated, though a new one may be trying to develop on the extreme south side of the new convective blow-up

[wxman57]

that old LLC likely has dissipated, though a new one may be trying to develop on the extreme south side of the new convective blow-up

Problem is, that outfllow boundary is moving away from the new convection area. It's possible that the center could eventually reform near any new convection, though. Certainly, no TD today.

[wxman57]

we will have to wait for the QS pass to see if there is still a low level circulation.

Actually, there is no need to wait for Quickscat to determine of there is an LLC. When there is no convection to hide a center, visible satellite imagery works quite well. We've been using it for decades without any QS available.

[SouthFloridawx]

the navy says

(snip graphic)

That is the last forecast by NHC on TD10 before it was declared dissipated...note the Date-Time Group in the upper right-hand corner... 140600Z...

thanks did not notice that. I apologize