H. Irene Eye Visible...Strenghtening Likely Underway...

[Hyperstorm]

This morning, Irene appears to be undergoing some changes.

The convection has exploded near the center and there are signs an eye will pop out within the next couple of hours. It has done the "Fist" (this has been Drezee's term for the way the convection swings around the center in the form of a fist). If that eye pops out, rapid intensification could very well ensue. This latest burst of the hurricane could it bring it to a Category 2, at least.

The only inhibitor right now, is some fast moving westerlies that are impinging on the NW side, but if the storm moves just slightly faster toward the ENE, those winds shouldn't be detrimental.

EDIT: CHANGE TITLE OF THREAD TO REFLECT CURRENT SITUATION

[gatorcane]

Irene go away!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bomb Irene Bomb baby bomb. The nhc will likely go by the t numbers as of a few hours ago. But I'm rooting for Irene to become a cat3.


It appears that the eye has comed out. I would say at least a 5.0 t.

[Hyperstorm]

While I'm expecting a Category 2, a category 3 is not out of the question if the storm continues the RI that is currently underway. If the storm becomes a Category 3 hurricane, it would be one for the record books as only 2 other hurricanes have formed into major hurricanes north of where Irene is.

This possibility of significant strengthening was discussed yesterday because the storm would be traversing over even warmer waters in the Gulf Stream current, plus the fact that Irene is going to be moving over the sharp temperature contrast (85* vs. 65*) that occurs near those latitudes. This has created some significant strengthening of hurricanes in the past.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How long doe's Irene have before she hits colder water?

[Hyperstorm]

How long doe's Irene have before she hits colder water?

That would be starting on Thursday. The storm has even warmer waters to traverse before finally moving over the cold NA. The main inhibitor thus far has not been the SSTs, but the westerly flow at upper levels. As the storm accelerates ENE, the storm should move in tandem with these winds and should not be too much of a factor during the next 24 hours.

[wxwatcher91]

whoa yeah... I havent been on in a while (about 6 hours ) Irene looks awesome now... tops are a bit warmer but a lot more organized and we now have a good eye going...

[Gorky]

Looking very nice on visible too

[Hyperstorm]

The hurricane has been maintained at 85 mph in the latest advisory. This was based on the Dvorak Agencies indicating a 4.5 at 1200 UTC.

The storm has considerably improved its appearance since then and the system could very well receive a 5.0 Dvorak estimate (Category 2) by this afternoon.

[EDR1222]

Comon Irene, you can do it!

[du1st]

why are there 2 threads saying the same thing about Irene?

[wxwatcher91]

why are there 2 threads saying the same thing about Irene?

I thought you would have caught on by now... there are usually anywhere from 2 to 20 threads going at the same time saying the same thing... it just natural here

[wxwatcher91]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

play the loop and check off Trop Fcst Pts. you can see the eye of Irene sliding right south of the first point

[SouthFloridawx]

irene has come a long way from this. I think no one thought irene would be this intense.

[wxmann_91]

Well, it looks like Irene might've peaked...convective tops are getting warmer and eye is looking ragged on the last frame.

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

I'd say it's at least a Cat 2 now.

[Sanibel]

We are being ripped-off on reports because they are estimating them.

Irene is definitely a category 2 now. The outflow has become solid and ribbed indicating serious intensification. For some reason the eye remains sheared and partially covered. Irene is stronger than they realize, however this is probably its peak due to cool waters and increasing shear ahead.

This is what happenes when the track alligns with favorable winds and a cyclone tracks across the Gulf Stream. Atlantic is ripening...

[donsutherland1]

Southfloridawx2005,

I had written on August 11 that I expected Irene to reach a maximum intensity of 90 mph. Historic climatology and the overall synoptic situation, more than the GFDL/SHIPS/DSHPS, led me to that conclusion.

[donsutherland1]

New CI report: 5.0 for Irene.