Models dont like mexico..
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Too much shear?
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
Set the WV to 30 and animate. Look west of the wave off the Yucatan - trof split. Behind the trof split a high should build in (haven't checked any upper charts though to verify). I have no idea whether something will form or not, but we'll have to wait and see.
Steve
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
Set the WV to 30 and animate. Look west of the wave off the Yucatan - trof split. Behind the trof split a high should build in (haven't checked any upper charts though to verify). I have no idea whether something will form or not, but we'll have to wait and see.
Steve
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deltadog03
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I must have missed that, but it's pretty obvious what's going on west of the wave/energy. That trof is stretched out and pulling southwest which means it's splitting off. Behind it the wave should be able to approach the coast. Again, I'm not saying anything's going to develop or not, but the possibility exists and the NOGAPS 12z does support the possibility.
Steve
Steve
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On that WV, set it to 30 and speed it up to where it's fast but not super fast. Look at extreme southern Texas and eastern Mexico. Connected to that trof on the SW Coast of Mexico (aka The Mexican Riviera - sp?) you'll see an upper level low heading SW/WSW into the Pacific. What happens in non El Nino patterns is that the trofs (and sometimes the ridges and even storms themselves) will send a piece of energy SW as that particular upper feature breaks apart (stretches and spins away). In the wake of that trough split, an upper ridge will usually build in behind it. If there is a wave butt up against the trof that's splitting, the reversal of the pattern (e.g. high pressure) builds in to replace the trof giving an almost instantly favorable upper environment for whatever is there to develop as the shear lessens. We've seen that happen several times this season in the Caribbean. Hope that helps some.
Steve
Steve
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