My thinking on tropical depression 10!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this will likely stay west-northwest as the subtropcial high builds to its north(Mjo wet phase=convection over the tropics + lower pressures. Which also means a higher pressure to the north) Also think as the trough/tutt moves out/weakens the enviroment is going to become very favable. A upper high is trying to build over this system for crying out load.

We have a well defined LLC with a big burst of convection. While at the same time a upper high with the enviroment slowly becoming more favable. Also one of the reason why Dennis/Emily became power houses was because they had to deal with very little SAL. Can't say that the super warm waters did not help but that a lone doe's not make a a storm powerful. The SAL is a check on that. In with little of that at the moment I'm scared that it could well grow into a powerful storm.

This is not a tropical wave. If you went to call it anything its called a tropical distrabance or tropical low.

I also think a slow organizion over the next 24 to 36 hours should take place. Then a faster pace of development afterwards. People I'm not fooling around.

This has a defined LLC with developing convection right over it. I would watch it as it moves into a moist plus a low shear enviroment.

This is my option take it for what its worth.




The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[du1st]

Nice forecast.

[hicksta]

I agree very nice forcast

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks all. This is going ot be a very interesting system to watch over the next week.

[mahicks]

Great forecast. I totally agree!

[EDR1222]

Agreed. It appears it will be moving into a more favorable environment and definately bears watching.

[wxmann_91]

Great forecast Matt. But I still think that it will struggle and fail to intensify much.

[FlSteel]

I agree with your thinking Mat. Good forcast. Should be an interesting couple of days coming up too see how the tropical disturbance formerly known as TD10 fares. Right now looking at it on IR and shortwave IR, looks like it is doing it's best to get it's act collected.

[weatherwindow]

tend to agree with your take on this, matt....lone caveat is the evolution of the ULL and its movement. TWD mentioned the possibility of retrograding the ULL in tandem with the "little depression that could"...if that verifies it could put a lid on development...any comments in that regard?.......rich

[Recurve]

Good discussion and fine points, thanks.

[mobilebay]

Good job Matt! you are doing better, and better with your forecasts and posts. GOOD job buddy!

[Recurve]

Looks like if anything develops steering currents would head it pretty much west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.