Where Is The Action??!!

[tropicstorm]

What is with this season? We have already seen seasonal records being broken for earliest number of named storms and the experts predict an absolute proliferation of coming storms the remainder of the season. So, where's the action already? It's past mid-August and looking at the Atlantic basin everyday is like watching paint dry. What gives? I know, I know - SAL and upper level shear. But, what really gives?

[x-y-no]

Patience, grasshopper ...

[CFL]

There's plenty more misery to come - just wait.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical depression 10 is going to become quite the cyclone you will see. Then watch for more coming off the African coast. Come on Atlantic beat 1995...Wahooo

[HurricaneGirl]

Yes, what's up with all these little stormelettes???
http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=AtlanticLoop&prodnav=none
Ex-TD#10 and another little one just off the coast of Africa. Irene had an eye just for a little bit.

[Derecho]

So, where's the action already? It's past mid-August and looking at the Atlantic basin everyday is like watching paint dry.

BWAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.....

1997 - August. THAT's watching paint dry.

You have an active hurricane (Irene) and a TD about to become active again (10) at the moment.

If you consider this "watching paint dry" you really need a different hobby than watching the tropics, because most years you're going to be so bored you'll consider suicide.

What gives? I know, I know - SAL and upper level shear.

The levels of both are about normal for this date in the Tropical Atlantic at the moment; overall, the genesis parameters are ABOVE normal.

But, what really gives?

Fundamental misunderstanding of tropical climatology. The peak of the season is September, not August.

[WeatherEmperor]

where have you been all this time Hurricanegirl?

<RICKY>

[EDR1222]

It is actually staying faily active. We have a hurricane out there and former tropical depression 10 that bears watching. Also, if you notice on water vapor imagery, there seems to be more moisture in the western Atlantic than there has been in a while, so when the shear lets up across the region, we could see things really start to pick up.

[Steve]

The Navy NOGAPS model in alliance with the FSU MM5 are calling for something to close off and hit in the Bret/Emily area at the end of their runs. The UKMet just starts to close something off when the run ends.

Here's the NOGAPS just to give you something to watch. FWIW, I'm not saying anything will or won't form in the SW Gulf because I have no idea. I caught Point/Counterpoint today and JB said he didn't think anything would be organized but that S TX should see some rainfall.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[HurricaneGirl]

where have you been all this time Hurricanegirl?

<RICKY>

Just laying low, playing Mahjong and waiting for something to track besides Irene.

[gatorcane]

Jose will be the action soon, just be patient

[gulfcoastdave]

The storms are just waiting til closer to football season

Canes and Noles play in about two weeks

time for game time to be changed...........wait and see

[FloridaDiver]

{snip}..... But, what really gives? {/snip}

Ahhh, how about just a bit of GOOD LUCK?
I for one do not mind the "lack of tropical weather", last year in South Florida was a mess. Yes we were a but lucky to miss the one-two punch of last year but the weather and surrounding oceans were still affected. As an avid scuba diver it is most difficult to enjoy the ocean when it is stirred up to the consistency of oatmeal....

[NastyCat4]

The peak of the season is September, not August.

NOT true---peak of hurricane season is MID AUGUST to MID SEPTEMBER.

[boca]

peak is Sept10th

[NastyCat4]

More cat 3,4, and 5 storms have formed and made landfall between Aug 15, and Sept 15 than any other time. Thus, peak is a period of time, and not a date.

[Stormtrack]

peak is Sept10th

True, but it seems to be front end loaded (not a bell curve). Anybody have a plot of average distribution?

[mobilebay]

Derocho is right. Some people sure know how to fold a tent! We go through this every year on every board. No matter how active a season is it is just not active enough for some people. Even given the time frame presented 8-15- through 9-15, we are exactly ONE day into that time, and we HAVE 1 Hurricane and probably at least a Depression by tomorrow. Come on people enough of this!

[tropicstorm]

It seems that I took a bit of flak and some ridicule last night from Derecho with his "BWAHAHAHAHAHA" - which I guess is some type of primal communication to me that I am a crybaby because there has been a lull in developing Atlantic tropical systems lately. He goes on to predict a strengthening of TD # 10, but alas - it took another beating today from upper level wind shear and is now classified as a tropical wave with only remnants of convection. I was also informed that the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is in September - really only partially true, as the peak is a median range of more intense tropical storm activity historically beginning about mid-August through the end of September. And finally, I am told that I have a "fundamental misunderstanding of tropical climatology".
Oh really? I am no expert, but think that I understand the fundamentals pretty well. I can't wait for Derecho's next forecast.

[ohiostorm]

This is the calm before the storm. I told someone earlier that insanity awaits. I hate to say this but you'll see you action soon enough and it's not going to be pretty.