TD 10...Back Again

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats a major problem because it has a well defined LLC with everything. But shear keeps knocking the convection to the northeast. This could be a storm that is allowed closed to the United states with out a Advisorie then boom? It sure looks like it. I don't know what to say because I just don't know.

[hicksta]

i just hope it takes a N turn and stays away from texas

[gatorcane]

Thats a major problem because it has a well defined LLC with everything. But shear keeps knocking the convection to the northeast. This could be a storm that is allowed closed to the United states with out a Advisorie then boom? It sure looks like it. I don't know what to say because I just don't know.

Matt I highly doubt no advisory and then boom...

[Ivanhater]

i just hope it takes a N turn and stays away from texas

well not before it gets past me...lol

[MWatkins]

One more quick hit...

The burst of convection over the last 6 hours has bought the low-level circulation some time. The shear is lessening a bit...and by tomorrow the environment...in terms of moisture...should moderate a bit and allow this thing to get back to TD status.

I realize there are a lot of questions on track...and I don't want to get too hyped up on a track projection until we actually see advisories coming out on the system again. However...I think the WNW track...for the next 5 days...seems extreemly reasonable. I don't see this system gaining latitude rapidly at any point in the next few days....and the increase to 10 knots in forward speed suggests the system is already feeling some ridging to the N.

MW

[gatorcane]

any chances of an upgrade to a depression at 11 EST?

[hicksta]

Alright thats a deal. Turn N into the most unpopulated area around.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 170224
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND
IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


NO upgrade at 11 PM but tommorow yes if organization trend continues.

[Ivanhater]

One more quick hit...

The burst of convection over the last 6 hours has bought the low-level circulation some time. The shear is lessening a bit...and by tomorrow the environment...in terms of moisture...should moderate a bit and allow this thing to get back to TD status.

I realize there are a lot of questions on track...and I don't want to get too hyped up on a track projection until we actually see advisories coming out on the system again. However...I think the WNW track...for the next 5 days...seems extreemly reasonable. I don't see this system gaining latitude rapidly at any point in the next few days....and the increase to 10 knots in forward speed suggests the system is already feeling some ridging to the N.

MW

yes, i was going to comment that every pulse, which seems to be getting closer and closer together, is strengthening the llc and keeping it going

[gatorcane]

I have the TWC on and Jim Cantore is mentioning a very vigorious cold front that is expected to move SE across the Eastern US....it will be bringing lows in the 40s and 50s in the mid west. it won't make it all the way to the deep South but it may just be enough to cause the north turn down the road...

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting to see how the system has progressed or regressed.

[Ivanhater]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting to see how the system has progressed or regressed.

hurakan, i miss your old avatar with the apple

[Derek Ortt]

south Florida (meaning Keys, mainland and Dade) do mainly get hit from the south. This includes many of the Lesser known storms, such as 1981 Dennis, as well as many threats, such as Michelle and Fabian 1991. Even Dennis side-swpied the Keys from the south

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting to see how the system has progressed or regressed.

hurakan, i miss your old avatar with the apple

I don't remember having an avatar with an apple. The old one that I had had the Florida Marlins symbol.

[Ivanhater]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting to see how the system has progressed or regressed.

hurakan, i miss your old avatar with the apple

I don't remember having an avatar with an apple. The old one that I had had the Florida Marlins symbol.

hmm, maybe i have you mixed up

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 170224
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

$$

[clfenwi]

The shear just isn't letting up: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I think some point last night I said 36 hours or so until it gets to more favorable conditions... well, it still looks like 36 hours...given the step forward half-step backward nature of the system, I think it's unlikely that there will be an upgrade tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The well defined LLC is still under or near the convection. Also look at the faning of the clouds to the southwest=less shear???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

I'v seen worst believe me.

[rockyman]

Hebert...eat your heart out

[Patrick99]

That ULL looks like it's finally filling in a bit and releasing its grip. Ex TD 10 is already well to the west of it....