East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

Hyperstorm it looks like a piece of the wave is moving WNW as you said and the other is in the ITCZ with some deep convection down around 10n.Is that right about what I am seeing?

The main axis of the wave is stretched from the ITCZ to the Sahara. The southern part of the convection is moving west as the northern part moves WNW. It should generally move westward now since it has moved over water, but since the main core is now from 12N-16N, it would not bode well for immediate development. It would have to concentrate around a common center, rather than taking up hundreds of miles of North/South latitude.

In other words the wave is tilted SW to NE not good in the near term.Now let's wait and see if something that may resemble a low forms somewhere in the long wave axis which may occur anywhere from the ITCZ northward.

But the biggie one behind is the one we have to pay more attention in a couple of days as it emerges Africa.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA IS SOMEWHAT TILTED FROM
THE WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA BORDER SW TO NEAR 8N20W...MOVING W
5-10 KT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO HAS
INDICATED THAT A BACKWARD TILTED WAVE BEGAN MOVING OFF THE COAST
YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
WAVE HAS YET TO FULLY EMERGE WITH BROAD S/SWLY FLOW FEEDING UP
INTO GUINEA-BISSAU...SENEGAL...AND WRN MAURITANIA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR THE SENEGAL/MAURITANIA BORDER...AND THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
12W-19W...AND FARTHER SW ALONG THE ITCZ.


The above is the 2 PM discussion from TPC.

[JTD]

So, Luis:

When is this wave currently over Africa supposed to come off into Atlantic? Sorry for my confusion?

[cycloneye]

So, Luis:

When is this wave currently over Africa supposed to come off into Atlantic? Sorry for my confusion?

In a couple of days that wave will emerge.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS ALONG 18W S OF
22N. A 1007 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N18W. THE SYSTEM
IS MOVING W 5-10 KT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR OVER THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS INDICATED THAT A BACKWARD TILTED WAVE BEGAN MOVING OFF
THE COAST YESTERDAY MORNING. PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW CENTER.

The above remarks from 8 PM Discussion about wave just west of the African Coast with a surface low.

[superfly]

The convection around 9N/28W has been persisting for a while now, could be something to watch. The area with the surface low seems to be holding its own as well around 16N/18W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA IS DRIFTING W SLOWLY AND
IS ALONG 19W S OF 22N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 13.5N-18.5N BETWEEN 17W-21W WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW.


MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE AFRICAN
COAST AS THE NEW TROPICAL WAVE/LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE COAST.

The above remarks from the 8:05 AM Discussion from TPC.

Note that moist air is increasing in the Eastern Atlantic and that will help waves that will emerge west africa in the comming days not have to deal with much sal.

[Aquawind]

Looked pretty good on that IR pic.. Large economy size..16N..I like that..


Paul

[weatherwoman]

i think we will have a lot tolook at soon

[shaggy]

looks like that last one to move off the coast is it for a few days the continent looks dry right now



http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AV/200 ... 0AV1_g.jpg

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 12.9N 17.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 20.08.2005 12.9N 17.0W WEAK

00UTC 21.08.2005 13.6N 18.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.08.2005 14.5N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2005 13.3N 28.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2005 12.7N 31.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2005 12.7N 33.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2005 12.8N 36.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET shows a system moving west.

[caribepr]

Those numbers suck, Luis! Make them change it!

[cycloneye]

Those numbers suck, Luis! Make them change it!

I know why you say that. Let's see what pattern this system will have in terms of how strong the subtropical ridge will be and if is going to encounter troughs on it's treck thru the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

Look how it looks inside Africa.That wave poised to emerge late tommorow is the one some models are jumping on.But look behind at that bomb that models jump also.

[sweetpea]

I hope they go merrily off to sea. I will fedex the bait to them.

[cycloneye]

I hope they go merrily off to sea. I will fedex the bait to them.

That is the thinking of all here in Puerto Rico and I know our friends in all the islands think the same.But we have to be prepared if a big threat arises because it only takes one to do all the damage and change our lives but again all that may form east of us miss the islands or anywhere in the basin.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 18z GFS loop at 384 hours.

What I follow are trends from the models. Now let's see what the 00z run of the GFS later tonight show and the rest of the globals as well.

[sweetpea]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

The 18z GFS loop at 384 hours.

What I follow are trends from the models. Now let's see what the 00z run of the GFS later tonight show and the rest of the globals as well.

According to that it doesn't look to good for PR. Let us hope that doesn't come true.

Debbie

[HurricaneQueen]

Since it is that time of year when we spend two weeks in St.Maarten (leaving Saturday), I'm depending on you, Luis, to keep the storms away from the Northern Caribbean. We definitely do not want to experience another Hurricane Luis.

At the same time, it's pretty scary being away from Florida should a storm come this way with our beloved pets here (in fairly capable hands). Every year we spend two weeks with one eye on what is happening in the tropics and at home. Fortunately, access to the internet has become much better in recent years. In the old days we were at the mercy of those places that get TWC. Tourist resorts and time shares do not provide much in the way of weather information-talk about withdrawal!!!!

Anyway, I hope to keep in touch while there. Stay safe, everyone.

Lynn