Good thing Canadian Model wont be Correct........

[KatDaddy]

but if it were to be correct look out Houston-Galveston


http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Even the Nogaps says S TX

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

The models are a sniffing

[superfly]

Neither are ex-TD10.

[WindRunner]

no, but another wave coming through the Carib will be in the w. carib at the appropriate time (when the models show development ~3.5days) to become whatever they are showing there. I wouldn't discount it quite yet, especially with the two models showing it.

[KatDaddy]

The model run for Ex-TD10 point to the GOM S of FLA and Cuba into the SE and S GOM.........IF it survives.

I really hope to see a Joe B update this morning. If its not posted someone will need to enlighten us.........please.

[vbhoutex]

Katdaddy why do you discount it when two models are showing it? I know it is 5 days out, but what do you see that makes you think it won't happen? Dr. Frank was looking at something possibly impacting N MX or S TX the other day, but I am not sure how far out it was.

[Steve H.]

YEs, I wouldn't discount those models, NOGAPS has been on that for days in the GOM. Now the Canadien has joined and MM5 had been showing it.

[mvtrucking]

This may be from yesterday(Point/counterpoint) but they touch on TD10 and also the system SE of Irene that they say was moving SW that could be interesting in a few days.

http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

[Frank2]

Interesting that the loop doesn't indicate the former TD10 low...

[donsutherland1]

Dave,

I agree with you. With multiple models hinting at some kind of development that might threaten northeast Mexico or Texas, I'd certainly keep an eye out for such development. It might come to nothing, but with several models providing the same hint, I'd be very hesitant to dismiss those hints until I see sufficient evidence that concern is not warranted. Right now, I don't see such evidence.

[KatDaddy]

Hey there VB. I just want to see more model runs before becoming more interested with potential GOM development. The tropical wave Dr Neil is talking about should be mostly inland by later today or tomorrow morning.
I just do not see anything yet but will be watching

[weatherwoman]

i wouldnt be so sure it is not right

[Anonymous]

How do you all know that this isn't TD-10 missing the trough?

[tailgater]

The nogaps has been hinting at this area of low pressure for about 3 days now along with MM5. My guess is that the system (N12.5 -W77.0)currently fighting off the( or being enhanced by ) the TUTT to it's north. Looks to have a bit of rotation, probably at the mid levels. I'm gonna watch.

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS 00Z run downplayed the situation and it looks like the 12Z run is completely without it (the low... it still carries precip).

Compare:
yesterday's 12Z forecast for 00Z Saturday

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=084

00Z forecast for the same time

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=072

and today's 12Z forecast for the same time

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=060

[jasons2k]

There was a thread going about this yesterday, yes it is always scary when a model is fishing for something that really isn't there yet, after all, that's how it all begins.

When you get 2 models it definately raises eyebrows, altho the MM5 is usually tossed.

Oh and as far as nothing on the new run, that happens all the time with developing or "to be" developed systems. It'll show in one run and not the next...then it'll show up again.

The name of the game here is consistency

[stormcloud]

This mornings (Wednesday) 12z Canadian has backed down on the large storm going to Texas early next week. They now have a much weaker system moving inland well south of Texas.