Here's an example of three hurricanes affecting Florida one year. One originated in the Caribbean, one near Bermuda, one in the Bahamas.
Hurricane 2, Sept. 2 -- System formed at 24n/68w.
Hurricane 4, Sept. 28 -- System formed at 15n/73w, recurved just off upper Keys/S. Miami.
Hurricane 6, Nov. 4 -- System formed at 33n/61w, tracked west towards Charleston, then southwest and west into Ft. Lauderdale.
TD 10...Back Again
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
I agree Boca. Come on 2005!!!
Tropical depression 10 is not having any problem holding its own right now. With each flare up it gets better organized + stronger. In the LLC holds closer to the Cdo/convection. Really it could still hit the northern islands in about a few days. I think a steady development of the system.
Tropical depression 10 is not having any problem holding its own right now. With each flare up it gets better organized + stronger. In the LLC holds closer to the Cdo/convection. Really it could still hit the northern islands in about a few days. I think a steady development of the system.
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cycloneye
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Wnghs2007
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Ixolib wrote:WOW - 24 pages and 13,333 views for a TD!! Yet another example of how the first part of this season really spoiled us!! We are obvioulsy DYING for something - anything - to track and discuss
Yeah thats good for a wave, but Irene as a very weak TD who was going to recurve, caused over 2,000 posts in a thread and over 120 pages
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NWS from Puert Rico seems to think TD10 will regenerate move west initially then WNW on Thursday.NW late Thurs into Friday.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU
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A 1011 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 16N54W MOVING W 5-10 KT. CONVECTION HAS REDUCED SINCE
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
OBSCURED MOSTLY BY HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THIS LOW IS E OF
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN...THUS IS UNDER S TO SW SHEAR AND THUS PREVENTING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
2:05 AM TWD (although the header currently says 8:05 AM and it was sent at 0524Z...)
NEAR 16N54W MOVING W 5-10 KT. CONVECTION HAS REDUCED SINCE
EARLIER THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
OBSCURED MOSTLY BY HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 51W-55W. THIS LOW IS E OF
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN...THUS IS UNDER S TO SW SHEAR AND THUS PREVENTING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
2:05 AM TWD (although the header currently says 8:05 AM and it was sent at 0524Z...)
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00Z GFDL... much further west than previous run...
WHXX04 KWBC 170524
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 17
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.0 54.1 280./ 9.9
6 16.4 55.0 291./ 9.6
12 16.7 56.1 284./10.3
18 17.1 56.9 300./ 8.8
24 17.8 57.9 301./11.7
30 18.5 58.9 306./12.2
36 19.3 60.0 306./13.2
42 20.1 61.3 300./14.3
48 20.8 61.8 327./ 8.8
54 21.3 63.0 292./12.2
60 21.9 63.9 302./10.2
66 22.3 64.4 311./ 5.8
72 22.7 65.4 290./10.4
78 22.9 66.6 279./10.9
84 23.3 67.5 296./ 8.7
90 23.5 68.3 284./ 7.6
96 23.8 69.4 287./10.6
102 24.0 70.7 278./12.5
108 24.5 71.5 300./ 8.5
114 24.8 72.7 287./11.7
120 25.3 73.9 290./11.8
126 25.9 74.8 304./10.2
WHXX04 KWBC 170524
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 17
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 16.0 54.1 280./ 9.9
6 16.4 55.0 291./ 9.6
12 16.7 56.1 284./10.3
18 17.1 56.9 300./ 8.8
24 17.8 57.9 301./11.7
30 18.5 58.9 306./12.2
36 19.3 60.0 306./13.2
42 20.1 61.3 300./14.3
48 20.8 61.8 327./ 8.8
54 21.3 63.0 292./12.2
60 21.9 63.9 302./10.2
66 22.3 64.4 311./ 5.8
72 22.7 65.4 290./10.4
78 22.9 66.6 279./10.9
84 23.3 67.5 296./ 8.7
90 23.5 68.3 284./ 7.6
96 23.8 69.4 287./10.6
102 24.0 70.7 278./12.5
108 24.5 71.5 300./ 8.5
114 24.8 72.7 287./11.7
120 25.3 73.9 290./11.8
126 25.9 74.8 304./10.2
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gkrangers
Tropical models are way way way west..like south florida to straights west.
00z NOGAPS and 00z Euro show recurvature, starting NE of the Bahamas, then north from there...presumably in between the US and Bermuda.
Sooooo anyway...theres barely any system at all to follow, they both keep a very weak system, and its going to take until we have a legitimate system initialized to get some more trustworthy model runs, IMO.
00z NOGAPS and 00z Euro show recurvature, starting NE of the Bahamas, then north from there...presumably in between the US and Bermuda.
Sooooo anyway...theres barely any system at all to follow, they both keep a very weak system, and its going to take until we have a legitimate system initialized to get some more trustworthy model runs, IMO.
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elysium
TD 10 has finally stabalized and should be, as the NHC forecasts, in a much better environment for development very soon. The sheer has abated and the ridge is building in absolutely picture perfect to TD 10's north and northwest. We may easily see some additional northwest movement on day 5 after TD 10 slows down in forward speed. Does anyone here think that day 5 might see TD 10 remain at whatever its current forward speed is at that time?
Most of the models have the ridge to TD 10's north weakening on day 5 and it's hard not to buy into that argument. While the models are flip flopping on the trough, they have flipped back again to a stronger trough but also a stronger ridge as well. This means that, as suggested by model guidance like the 00Z GFS and UKMET, the ridge will weaken on day 5 and allow for slow northwestward movement. However, on days 6 and 7, the ridge quickly fills in again according to most of the models due to the troughs rapid evacuation of the SE conus. There is also some suggestion that the high forecasted to to build in for the mid-Atlantic may actually shunt the trough to the northwest some removing some of its energy. I am not sure nor can I therefore say what this means to the forecast for TD 10. Could it mean that TD 10 turns slowly to the northwest on day 5 and then takes a hard westward turn with strong high pressure overhead? Or could it mean something else again?
It is too early to tell whether TD 10 will take aim at either south or central Florida.
Does anyone here have any idea about how a building high pressure ridge over the top of TD 10 on days 7 and 8 might possibly effect the intensification forecast? What are the sst's near the Florida east coast? If I had those facts in hand, I could offer a reasonable guess as to what TD 10's intensity might be at time of day 8 or 9. Without that data I'd be little more than guessing.
Most of the models have the ridge to TD 10's north weakening on day 5 and it's hard not to buy into that argument. While the models are flip flopping on the trough, they have flipped back again to a stronger trough but also a stronger ridge as well. This means that, as suggested by model guidance like the 00Z GFS and UKMET, the ridge will weaken on day 5 and allow for slow northwestward movement. However, on days 6 and 7, the ridge quickly fills in again according to most of the models due to the troughs rapid evacuation of the SE conus. There is also some suggestion that the high forecasted to to build in for the mid-Atlantic may actually shunt the trough to the northwest some removing some of its energy. I am not sure nor can I therefore say what this means to the forecast for TD 10. Could it mean that TD 10 turns slowly to the northwest on day 5 and then takes a hard westward turn with strong high pressure overhead? Or could it mean something else again?
It is too early to tell whether TD 10 will take aim at either south or central Florida.
Does anyone here have any idea about how a building high pressure ridge over the top of TD 10 on days 7 and 8 might possibly effect the intensification forecast? What are the sst's near the Florida east coast? If I had those facts in hand, I could offer a reasonable guess as to what TD 10's intensity might be at time of day 8 or 9. Without that data I'd be little more than guessing.
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gkrangers
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Aquawind
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- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 170903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN... IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
SINCE YESTERDAY... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO
PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
Well the swirl is not entirely naked this morning like yesterday.. Looks like pre-Jose might be wearing some speedos..
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
Paul
ABNT20 KNHC 170903
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN... IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED
SINCE YESTERDAY... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO
PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
HOWEVER... CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
Well the swirl is not entirely naked this morning like yesterday.. Looks like pre-Jose might be wearing some speedos..
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
Paul
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
WeatherEmperor
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The system appeared the best Tueday night to me. Nice healthly blow ups of convection with a tight LLC. Now its just banding like conveciton over a broader LLC. Both deserving Td but the later maybe less. I still expect this to develop over the next few days.
If this thing heads further and further west then the islands could have some problems if this develops. However if this does not start moving more WNW before it impacts the islands, I dont see this ever going further north then 20N, at least not for a long time. Reasoning is that if it crosses the islands which is at about 61/62W, on its current motion and path will set up a collision course with Hispanola and we all know what that means. So if it were to avoid Hispanola, it would have to take a very hard northward turn at that point or it can just stay south and go south of Hispanola. Point is, in order to avoid Hispanola a WNW motion would have to start happening within the next day or two.
<RICKY>
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