TD 10...Back Again

[cycloneye]

17/1145 UTC 16.7N 55.5W T1.0/1.5 10 -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050817 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050817 1200 050818 0000 050818 1200 050819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 55.7W 17.4N 57.6W 18.3N 59.6W 19.0N 61.6W
BAMM 16.5N 55.7W 17.4N 57.7W 18.7N 60.0W 20.0N 62.1W
A98E 16.5N 55.7W 17.4N 57.4W 18.6N 59.3W 20.1N 61.3W
LBAR 16.5N 55.7W 17.6N 57.5W 18.8N 59.4W 20.1N 61.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050819 1200 050820 1200 050821 1200 050822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.7N 63.6W 20.6N 67.5W 21.3N 71.0W 22.1N 73.9W
BAMM 21.2N 64.1W 22.7N 67.5W 23.5N 70.7W 24.4N 72.9W
A98E 21.6N 63.7W 24.3N 68.9W 26.2N 73.6W 28.1N 75.7W
LBAR 21.4N 63.5W 23.1N 67.4W 23.8N 70.4W 24.1N 71.6W
SHIP 43KTS 53KTS 61KTS 70KTS
DSHP 43KTS 53KTS 61KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 55.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 52.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Tropical Models run.

[WeatherEmperor]

This mornings 12Z models are out.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

lol darn it ya beat me to it Luis. lol

[jax]

This mornings 12Z models are out.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

lol darn it ya beat me to it Luis. lol

starting to look more and more like a GOM'er

[boca]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think TD10 will get pased the Central Bahamas because according to NWS Miami the trough will dig in along the East coast and the ridge will get shunted South,but on a flip note the models have the system turning more west. I just don't know,and this season is wierd.

[WeatherEmperor]

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think TD10 will get pased the Central Bahamas because according to NWS Miami the trough will dig in along the East coast and the ridge will get shunted South,but on a flip note the models have the system turning more west. I just don't know,and this season is wierd.

Does it say when the trough will dig into the east coast? This TD10 is not moving all that fast and wouldnt be near the east coast for at least another 5-6 days.

<RICKY>

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if this has the potential to be a gommer, do you think, if it does track into the straits, that it will continue on a WNW path or is this the potential setup for one of those curving storms that then impacts the west coast?

What is the ridge setup looking like for those two scenarios....

And will any troughing possibly affect future path?

Well, I guess getting laid off (Friday my last day now) will allow me to track this storm through the weekend and into next week before I find another job! -so that's something good coming out of the time off!

[boca]

WeatherEmperor it stated in the Mia diss that the trough would dig in along the east coast early next week.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/cgi ... &name=Area\sForecast\sDiscussion

[boca]

TD10 looks like its actually a TD and picking up momentum.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

looks like its heading 285 WNW now. Be prepared Luis.

[jabber]

TD10 looks like its actually a TD and picking up momentum.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

looks like its heading 285 WNW now. Be prepared Luis.

Yeah it does, but from the last frame it looks like our old friend shear is starting to do its dirty work.

[storms in NC]

Why so mush shear? I though it was to let up?

[TS Zack]

Certainly looks like the storm is getting close to becoming a Tropical Depression. Convection continues to fire near or over the center. It still continues to get sheared but you are seeing the convection re-fire.

Therefore, the system is holding its own and becoming better organized.

As for the track, a more Northward trajectory should be expected in the next 24-36hrs, thereafter, a bend back West. Florida needs to watch this very closely and that is all I will say as of now....

[x-y-no]

Why so mush shear? I though it was to let up?

There's less shear than there has been ... as evidenced by the fact that the convection is staying closer to the center for longer periods with each pulse.

Probably about 10 knots vertical shear at present.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like a Fla problem down the road. Of course it all depends on timing, just like always. If it does get to 70 to 75 w I think it will probably be a land falling hurricane especially if it is below 25 n. At least it shouldn't be a Carolinas problem.

[storms in NC]

Looks like a Fla problem down the road. Of course it all depends on timing, just like always. If it does get to 70 to 75 w I think it will probably be a land falling hurricane especially if it is below 25 n. At least it shouldn't be a Carolinas problem.

We HOPE

[weatherwoman]

do you think it will develop

[storms in NC]

do you think it will develop

I think it will. But as far as to say where to far out to say. I said it was going to be a fish when it was a TD10 and I still thinking on that line. But I have to wait and see what happens first with it. There is Too many iffy. Irene was iffy too for how many days till they really got a hold on her. She was tuff.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 17, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on hurricane
Irene...located about 720 miles south-southwest of Cape Race
Newfoundland.

The remnant of Tropical Depression Ten is a low pressure area
located about 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands that is moving
west-northwestward near 10 mph. Although upper-level winds are not
particularly favorable for development...this system has become
slightly better organized since yesterday...and it has the
potential to re-develop into a tropical depression later today or
on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday...if necessary.
On its present track...the system should pass to the north of the
Leeward Islands...however...interests in and near the northern
Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor its
progress.

Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Pasch/Cobb


Lets get interesting!!!

[MWatkins]

Looks like the low-level cloud bands are becoming a bit more active this morning…especially the bands east of the center…as well as a little band south of the center. Although nothing dramatic is happening at present the overall circulation envelope looks healthier than yesterday…

I will make no more predictions as to when the public advisories will resume since I have repeatedly been wrong on that issue…but I am sure that they are holding off on bringing this system back due to uncertainty of its immediate future…and perhaps as a result of implications of the future track.

Going to be an interesting afternoon…

MW

[storms in NC]

Looks like the low-level cloud bands are becoming a bit more active this morning…especially the bands east of the center…as well as a little band south of the center. Although nothing dramatic is happening at present the overall circulation envelope looks healthier than yesterday…

I will make no more predictions as to when the public advisories will resume since I have repeatedly been wrong on that issue…but I am sure that they are holding off on bringing this system back due to uncertainty of its immediate future…and perhaps as a result of implications of the future track.

Going to be an interesting afternoon…

MW

Nice Post. Like I said before there is too many iffy right now