Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for ex TD10

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED 171130Z AUG 05//
WTNT01 KNGU 171200
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/171130Z AUG 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 171200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 56.0W TO 17.0N 60.0W WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE, REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10, CURRENTLY
LOCATED AT 16N 56W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY WINDS INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR 16N 55W
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 72
HOURS. CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST, IT MOVES
INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ANTI-CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AT 200MB, WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE ALL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
DEVLOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA
IS 83F(28C). SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181500Z.//




Always when these are issued an upgrade occurs a few hours later so if trend of organization continues this afternoon we will see TD10 again.

[caribepr]

With all the rain we had yesterday I thought it would be sooner! Today is haze-o-rama big time.
Well - this will be interesting to watch

[Ivanhater]

well if it does get upgraded today, it will be interesting to see what the forecast path will be

[Buck]

Yay! Something to track!

[jax]

well if it does get upgraded today, it will be interesting to see what the forecast path will be

looks like a GOM'er

[wxman57]

One question I have would be whether this would be TD 11 or TD 10? In the past, when the NHC has downgraded a TD to a wave, they used a new TD number (like tropical depression 6 becoming 7 of a few years ago just east of Florida, I believe. It was clearly the same system. However, there was no lingering LLC with that depression. All the model data still say TD 10, so I guess they'll keep the same name.

[DESTRUCTION5]

One question I have would be whether this would be TD 11 or TD 10? In the past, when the NHC has downgraded a TD to a wave, they used a new TD number (like tropical depression 6 becoming 7 of a few years ago just east of Florida, I believe. It was clearly the same system. However, there was no lingering LLC with that depression. All the model data still say TD 10, so I guess they'll keep the same name.

I say TD10 this time..They have been saying former TD10 in every Update

[cycloneye]

One question I have would be whether this would be TD 11 or TD 10? In the past, when the NHC has downgraded a TD to a wave, they used a new TD number (like tropical depression 6 becoming 7 of a few years ago just east of Florida, I believe. It was clearly the same system. However, there was no lingering LLC with that depression. All the model data still say TD 10, so I guess they'll keep the same name.

Oh yes I didn't thought of that but thanks for bringing it up 57.I am with you about them mantaining continuity and say TD10.

[TS Zack]

AND IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY

They say re-develop of TD 10!

[WindRunner]

Yeah, that's been my experience tooin terms of regenerations.

Looks like this streak will continue for now.

[HURAKAN]

One question I have would be whether this would be TD 11 or TD 10? In the past, when the NHC has downgraded a TD to a wave, they used a new TD number (like tropical depression 6 becoming 7 of a few years ago just east of Florida, I believe. It was clearly the same system. However, there was no lingering LLC with that depression. All the model data still say TD 10, so I guess they'll keep the same name.

It will be the same number. What happened in 2003 was that the same tropical wave that gave rise to TD 6 also became TD 7. It wasn't the same system, but the same mom!

[Anonymous]

One question I have would be whether this would be TD 11 or TD 10? In the past, when the NHC has downgraded a TD to a wave, they used a new TD number (like tropical depression 6 becoming 7 of a few years ago just east of Florida, I believe. It was clearly the same system. However, there was no lingering LLC with that depression. All the model data still say TD 10, so I guess they'll keep the same name.

That one was TD-6 east of the Antillies and TD-7 into South Carolina. TD-6 broke in two and the northern end became TD-7. It occured in 2003.

[Derek Ortt]

its still 10 in the ATCF file, so it will almost certainly be TD 10

[Anonymous]

its still 10 in the ATCF file, so it will almost certainly be TD 10

Yea...I've been watching that for the past few days. This will be an interesting system.

[Coredesat]

I noticed that the NRL has given this system a new invest number (90L.INVEST). Is this normal?

[cycloneye]

I noticed that the NRL has given this system a new invest number (90L.INVEST). Is this normal?

My best guess about this is that they have this 90L invest as a transitory thing between a TD and a wave.It came out late this morning with the TCFA so I think that if they upgrade later today or tommorow the invest is gone again.

[senorpepr]

Yes, it would be 10L again unless a situation happens like a few years ago when 06L weakens into a wave, part of it splits off, and then the "new" piece develops. That would become 07L.

Of course, that is all subject to a heated debate on the NHC ops floor.

[msbee]

Luis, do you think this is going to affect us in the Northern islands?
or will is pass North of us??

[gkrangers]

Yes, it would be 10L again unless a situation happens like a few years ago when 06L weakens into a wave, part of it splits off, and then the "new" piece develops. That would become 07L.

Of course, that is all subject to a heated debate on the NHC ops floor.

Ivan too....

[frederic79]

One thing's for sure... this is one symetrical tropical wave.