TD 10...Back Again

[jabber]

Looks like the low-level cloud bands are becoming a bit more active this morning…especially the bands east of the center…as well as a little band south of the center. Although nothing dramatic is happening at present the overall circulation envelope looks healthier than yesterday…

I will make no more predictions as to when the public advisories will resume since I have repeatedly been wrong on that issue…but I am sure that they are holding off on bringing this system back due to uncertainty of its immediate future…and perhaps as a result of implications of the future track.

Going to be an interesting afternoon…

MW

So kinda like stick your head in the sand and hope it goes away for a little longer

[weatherwoman]

could it develop today

[Recurve]

Recon on Thursday:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
1. FLIGHT ONE
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0110A INVEST
C. 18/1200Z
D. 19.2N 61.2W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 19/0000Z
D. 20.4N 63.4W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM REDEVLOPS AND IS A THREAT.

[HURAKAN]

Recon on Thursday:

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUG 2005
         TCPOD NUMBER.....05-081

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
    1. FLIGHT ONE                    FLIGHT TWO
       A. 18/1800Z                   A. 19/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0110A INVEST         B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 18/1200Z                   C. 19/0000Z
       D. 19.2N 61.2W                D. 20.4N 63.4W
       E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2130Z       E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0930Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 12 HRLY FIXES
       IF SYSTEM REDEVLOPS AND IS A THREAT

.

[x-y-no]

I will make no more predictions as to when the public advisories will resume since I have repeatedly been wrong on that issue…but I am sure that they are holding off on bringing this system back due to uncertainty of its immediate future…and perhaps as a result of implications of the future track.

Going to be an interesting afternoon…

MW

I don't doubt the winds are there in the NE sector to justify a TD, and there's certainly a healthy LLC, but in their place, I would wait for the convection to be more sustained than it has been.

[storms in NC]

could it develop today

That would be the question of the day

[HURAKAN]

The system surely looks to be doing a comeback, but Dvorak numbers still don't show a depression. We need a ship report or Dvorak numbers to go up for the system to be upgraded. By the way, I don't like the models future movement of the system!

[TS Zack]

It doesn't take much of a tropical downpour to produce Tropical Depression Force Winds. This certainly has sustained winds of 30mph in one of them bands.

They really need to watch how they treat this scenario. What if it does hit the Northern Islands and they get Tropical Storm force conditions. Let's see what they do later today but a little more organization will be enough to upgrade it back up to TD 10.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

sorry here it is

[HURAKAN]

It shows a very well-developed low pressure system.

[wxman57]

Satellite imagery does show a weak circulation center, but it appears to be getting stretched out NW-SE along that line of convection. Center could even reform farther to the northwest as it did yesterday. Looks no better today than it did yesterday morning. Probably no TD today with this mess. Take a look at the convection on the northwest side of the center. Note all the outflow boundaries moving AWAY from the center? For development, there needs to be convergence, and you can't have much convergence if the low-level winds are moving away from the center of lower pressure.

That said, I still think it has about a 50-60% shot at becoming a TS in 3-4 days, possibly a hurricane. Could threaten Florida to the Carolinas.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/jose17.gif">

[Steve H.]

Agree wx57, this disturbance is a mess, and elongated. Still expect it to develop during the next few days; maybe a TS on Friday. Where it goes is debateable. Think it will stay a bit further south than some of the projections I've heard - don't think its going out to sea. We can worry about that later.

[elysium]

Conditions around TD 10 mid-range future are horrendous. I've never seen conditions this bad at this time of the year. It will take at least 4 days for the trecherous conditions to clear out. How that might effect TD 10's forecast is beyond the scope of this discussion. Does anyone here think that better conditions will prevail 4 days down the road?

The reason that TD 10's future has become much less certain is due to the collapse of the ridge that all of the models forecasted would develop. It is beyond belief that the ridge would just drop like this. It would appear that the NHC is correct in not sending out reconaissance until tomorrow. They may not send out a recon flight until after that.

TD 10 is in very good shape, but the ridge is faltering badly. While as indicated by the models, TD 10 will not likely recurve, it will also not likely develop into anything stronger than a minimal system until after day 4. However, with the ridge collapse, it could be longer than that before TD 10 develops meaningfully. Does anyone think that TD 10 won't develop until it gets into the GOM? I am exploring that possibility. With the downfall of the Atlantic conditions, the GOM conditions for development have actually improved.

Does anyone think that the chances of the Atlantic getting into shape by day 4 or 5 are greater than 30%? If the ridge recovers, could TD 10 go on to rapidly intenify? Or is that scenario all but down the drain until TD 10 reaches the GOM?

[gkrangers]

Elysium..not two days ago you said you had never seen better conditions for development and that TD10 would become a monster hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

Elysium, like most of us, has more questions than answers.

[LarryWx]

I now firmly believe that IF ex-TD-10 were to redevelop into a TS+ prior to reaching 70W, it will recurve safely east of the SE US as it gets caught by a surface/upper trough with its SSW winds. I even think that a TD would likely recurve. So, I currently don't see this as much of a threat for the SE US (FL, GA, SC, NC). It is pretty clearcut in my mind: there is, once again, hardly any Bermuda surface high currently in place and one isn't expected to be in place during the next several days at least. These storms tend to have a hard time hitting the SE coast outside of NC with no significant Bermuda surface high. Check historical maps. It makes sense. There's really nothing to steer it westward enough to hit the SE US imho. On top of this, add a trough getting near the east coast around day 5 and it tells me easy recurve well east of the SE US should it develop significantly over the next 2-3 days. If it stays very weak, I suppose it could track to the Gulf.


I really think that the primary system to watch for FL-NC is the one that is expected to emerge off of Africa in about 4 days. It would be more than two weeks away from the US if it were to make it that far. (early Sept.).

[WeatherEmperor]

I really do hope that this thing recurves out to sea and doesnt bother anybody. That would put everybody here on this board out of their misery.

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

Does anybody have the absolute latest UKMET model run graphically that I can look please?

<RICKY>

[clfenwi]

Two scenarios playing in my mind right now:

1. Tropical Depression tommorow morning, tropical storm on Friday. Nothing in place to 'trap', so it runs north-west then north and probably out to sea (or threatens North Carolina a la Bonnie of '98 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )

2. Next 72+ hours no different from the previous 72. The system defies all expectations and does nothing much. Continues along XTRAP course. Starts coming to life near the FL Straits where high pressure centered over Florida runs it through the straits and then poses a threat to the Gulf coast. (Loose example, albeit similar position at the moment, Claudette of '79 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )