Former TD-10, Florida and the Shortwave

[Anonymous]

Well, I believe that the best bet now is that Former TD-10 may very well regenerate, if it can survive roughly 24 more hours in unfavorable conditions. However, if it does survive...the questions are, where does it go and how strong does it get?

Well, as for intensity...considering it survives, it should become a Tropical Storm "Jose". The intensity may depend a lot on the potential track.

With the high pressure pushing westward, it should continue on a west-northwest track towards the Bahamas over the next 72-120 hours. During this time, I would not be surprised to see this become a hurricane. So, if this does pan out, and Hurricane "Jose" is near the Turks, Caicos and the Bahamas, where does it go from there?

Now, interesting enough....a few models develop a shortwave trough like the NOGAPS shows below:::



Now, would this shortwave trough become enough of a factor to have the ridge of high pressure back off, and allow the system to begin moving north? It would appear so, in my opinion. However, does it make it to Florida before it pulls north?

The think there are a few options:::

Track #1 Scenario, which would be into Florida...would be the possible track for a number of reasons.

Reason one, the system moves west-northwest faster than anticipated. This might cause a jog northwest or even north right at or after landfall, which could be a very bad scenario for Florida, especially if the system was a strong hurricane...in which case you have the system scraping the entire coast about 200 miles closer than Hurricane Floyd.

Reason two, the trough does not become as much of a factor, or does not pick it up fast enough, so the system barrels into Florida.

Other scenarios for the Southeast and even Mid-Atlantic all depend on...does the trough pull it north before Florida?

As for deepening, given the hot waters and forecast favorable conditions...I think this system could make atleast Category 1, maybe Category 2 in the Bahamas region. If it were to move further north, maybe less deepening....but if it continues west, more deepening.

I think the worst case with this system is if it were a small Category 2 in the Bahamas, and continued west towards Florida. While crossing the boiling Gulf Stream, it explodes, and then slams in or scrapes up the coast.

All in all....time will tell on this one.

~MIKE NASO

[boca]

Thanks Mike for the info I'm still getting over Frances and Jeanne from last year. Come on shortwave and let this storm curve away like Flyod did in 99.

[MysticOne]

Excellent discussion Mike!

Time will tell, but it should be very interesting watching how this develops (if it develops).

I look forward to following your analysis of the progress.

[Rainband]

Good job. Lots of what ifs.

[Anonymous]

Yea, something we need to watch.

[weatherwoman]

i still think nc will be in its path

[Recurve]

Sure this has been asked before, but -- what's the diff between a trough and a shortwave trough?

[TS Zack]

Nothing. A trough is a shortwave. Now there is a difference between a Longwave Trough and a Shortwave Trough

[Marilyn]

Thanks Mike for the info I'm still getting over Frances and Jeanne from last year. Come on shortwave and let this storm curve away like Flyod did in 99.

If it does pull a Floyd then we in North Carolina need to watch it , I remember Floyd and although I was over an hour inland from Wilmington Nc we got alot of wind and wind damage
I hope it fishes but it doesn't look that way does it?

[wxmann_91]

Now there is a difference between a Longwave Trough and a Shortwave Trough

And what's that?

[WindRunner]

And I'm sure we'd see something even more interesting if the shortwave came on down and sent it north right on top of the Gulf Stream for a while.

[Recurve]

Local NWS office says something this afternoon about Atlantic high and (possible) TD10 track:

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
145 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REBUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY.

[WeatherEmperor]

Local NWS office says something this afternoon about Atlantic high and (possible) TD10 track:

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
145 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEAKNESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REBUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE BASED UPON CLIMATOLOGY.

Isnt it always so convenient that when a tropical cyclone threatens the FL east coast, the ridge weakens coincidentally to allow the tropical system to move more northward but when there is no tropical system, the ridge tends to be stronger? Hmmm.....

<RICKY>

[hicksta]

So what i gatherd from you is. If it did this it would be bad for flordia. But it might do this and still hit flordia. Or do anything and hit flordia. Hmm?

[Recurve]

Hmmmmmm. Could it be...The Spanish Inquisition!?
sorry.

Back to topic -- in the NWS discussion, it sounds like the weakness could help the storm avoid Florida, but the timing suggests getting to the Bahamas and getting trapped under the ridge. Is shear going to be strong there, is the TUTT going to be near?
Stay tuned.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

For now I expect a gradual recurve to the north by the system as it gets near the Bahamas since many systems that are in the general area of EX-TD 10 tend to recurve gradually to the north. Also, if the high-pressure system does not strengthen significantly or maintain it's strength the system will probably and likely to be able to curve. This may be a temporary outlook, however...

[WeatherEmperor]

So what i gatherd from you is. If it did this it would be bad for flordia. But it might do this and still hit flordia. Or do anything and hit flordia. Hmm?

......what? lol sorry I have no clue what your talking about. What Im saying is that we are having the good life here in South Florida. All these coincidences have kept us safe from major hurricanes since Andrew. Dont you think we deserve some time off?

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

Lets not ignore the "ridge expected to build back westward across the FL peninsula monday-wednesday".

If the system is NE of the Bahamas by Sunday-Monday...and the ridge builds back westward...then...?

[MiamiensisWx]

It would certainly be nice, a time off from what happened last year...

[deltadog03]

yeah, then it GOES to FLORIDA