TD 10...Back Again

[hicksta]

Two scenarios playing in my mind right now:

1. Tropical Depression tommorow morning, tropical storm on Friday. Nothing in place to 'trap', so it runs north-west then north and probably out to sea (or threatens North Carolina a la Bonnie of '98 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )

2. Next 72+ hours no different from the previous 72. The system defies all expectations and does nothing much. Continues along XTRAP course. Starts coming to life near the FL Straits where high pressure centered over Florida runs it through the straits and then poses a threat to the Gulf coast. (Loose example, albeit similar position at the moment, Claudette of '79 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )

.


See #2 is wrong cause that would put it on my house.

[WeatherEmperor]

hwo about we just hope it recurves out to sea and bug nobody? sound good?

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

Does anybody have the absolute latest UKMET model run graphically that I can look please?

<RICKY>

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005081700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Sanibel]

It should have refired another center burst by now. Hmm.


It is approaching a slightly more moist environment by the islands. System looks like it is being effected by horizontal shear...

[jasons2k]

Two scenarios playing in my mind right now:

1. Tropical Depression tommorow morning, tropical storm on Friday. Nothing in place to 'trap', so it runs north-west then north and probably out to sea (or threatens North Carolina a la Bonnie of '98 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )

2. Next 72+ hours no different from the previous 72. The system defies all expectations and does nothing much. Continues along XTRAP course. Starts coming to life near the FL Straits where high pressure centered over Florida runs it through the straits and then poses a threat to the Gulf coast. (Loose example, albeit similar position at the moment, Claudette of '79 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif )

OK, that's a bit scary...something tells me the intensity would be a *tad* different than Claudette. Altho Caludette did set the record for TX rainfall (39" in Alvin).....but I'm more concerned with the wave near Central America that may get pulled north into the GOM than I am about #10, at least for now....

[storms in NC]

It should have refired another center burst by now. Hmm.


It is approaching a slightly more moist environment by the islands. System looks like it is being effected by horizontal shear...

It still don't look that bad as Irene did at one time

[wxman57]

It still don't look that bad as Irene did at one time

Just to refresh everyone's memory, this is a shot I saved of Irene when it was at its worst on the morning of August 9th:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene55.gif">

[JTD]

As for the shear, I think the warm water anomaly in the EPAC might explain why the Atlantic is a mess right now.

[Sanibel]

If EPAC heat were the sole factor those EPAC waves would be bombing. They aren't, so it is something else with the atmosphere.


TD10 is sheared more from the south now rather than SW as yesterday.

It is better curved, but the center is not bursting as much as yesterday.

The band to the east is thicker today indicating strengthening...

[HURAKAN]

17/1745 UTC 17.2N 56.4W T1.0/1.0 10 -- Atlantic Ocean


No depression today!

[clfenwi]

17/1745 UTC 17.2N 56.4W T1.0/1.0 10

[Derek Ortt]

thats only 1 Dvorak classification.

and I can guarantee that best track will have the system as a TD today and for the past several

[WeatherEmperor]

thats only 1 Dvorak classification.

and I can guarantee that best track will have the system as a TD today and for the past several

You are the first pro-met that has said that. Most of the others are like the system is dying, there is outflow on the LLC, etc. How confident are you that this thing will indeed redevelop into TD10?

<RICKY>

[Thunder44]

thats only 1 Dvorak classification.

and I can guarantee that best track will have the system as a TD today and for the past several

You are the first pro-met that has said that. Most of the others are like the system is dying, there is outflow on the LLC, etc. How confident are you that this thing will indeed redevelop into TD10?

<RICKY>

This system is not dying.

[Derek Ortt]

its been a TD for a while, it never actually dissipated. Advisories were just discontinued, like in Fran of 1996; however, BT still showed a TD at the time when no advisories were issued.

Still has a good chance of developing. We are quite confident on that fact

[WeatherEmperor]

thats only 1 Dvorak classification.

and I can guarantee that best track will have the system as a TD today and for the past several

You are the first pro-met that has said that. Most of the others are like the system is dying, there is outflow on the LLC, etc. How confident are you that this thing will indeed redevelop into TD10?

<RICKY>

This system is not dying.

I didnt say it was dying. If you carefully read my post I said that most of the "others" meaning other pro-mets beside Derek Ortt implied specifically yesterday that the LLC was dying. I dont wanna name any names here.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

It takes energy to blow up that east band like it is doing.


Until the synoptic shows us otherwise I would assume the Bermuda High is weak and a recurve tendency has set in like with Irene. The same lingering troughy-ness appears to be ahead of it...

[hurricanetrack]

Nice. I like this in a way, because it keeps the drama going- if they were all like Ivan where we almost knew for sure it would hit the U.S., then they would all be too predictable. A little "if it survives" is healthy for us 'cane trackers. Keeps us from being spoiled.

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 56.0 290./ 8.9
6 16.5 57.0 274./ 9.0
12 16.8 58.3 282./13.6
18 17.5 59.4 301./11.5
24 18.2 60.8 298./16.3
30 18.7 62.4 287./15.0
36 19.4 63.3 307./11.3
42 20.4 64.6 308./15.6
48 21.1 65.4 307./10.1
54 22.2 66.4 320./14.5
60 22.5 67.5 283./10.8
66 23.0 68.3 305./ 9.2
72 23.7 69.1 312./ 9.8
78 24.4 69.9 311./10.0


12z GFDL

[WeatherEmperor]

So the GFDL is starting to show a more northward turn? Works for me.

<RICKY>