Former TD-10, Florida and the Shortwave

[Scorpion]

In Frances everyone below West Palm got only TS winds. The damage was caused by the several hours of sustained TS winds. I think its pretty pathetic about the damage that occured here from just a TS/Cat 1.

[artist]

according to the diameter of the eye we were in the southern eyewall!

The center of the storm hit Port St. Lucie

[gatorcane]

In Frances everyone below West Palm got only TS winds. The damage was caused by the several hours of sustained TS winds. I think its pretty pathetic about the damage that occured here from just a TS/Cat 1.

It's very pathetic.

[deltadog03]

my parents at the time live in stuart....2 miles from jensen beach....um...where landfall was....both of them...they got the eye and both EYE WALLS

[Scorpion]

To tell you the truth Frances was a POS storm at landfall. Absolutely nothing compared to what it was before the Bahamas. The 105 mph winds were up in Ft Pierce and north. North County probably got only 80 mph winds at most, and below West Palm just 60 mph maybe. People have absolutely no idea how lucky we were. If this would have hit at full intensity we would still be rebuilding now.

[WeatherEmperor]

To tell you the truth Frances was a POS storm at landfall. Absolutely nothing compared to what it was before the Bahamas. The 105 mph winds were up in Ft Pierce and north. North County probably got only 80 mph winds at most, and below West Palm just 60 mph maybe. People have absolutely no idea how lucky we were. If this would have hit at full intensity we would still be rebuilding now.

Yes it would have been very disastrous. Thank goodness it weakened from cat 4 to cat 2.

<RICKY>

[fci]

In Frances everyone below West Palm got only TS winds. The damage was caused by the several hours of sustained TS winds. I think its pretty pathetic about the damage that occured here from just a TS/Cat 1.

In Lake Worth/Boynton we had verified winds of 100.
Care to see the tarps and the blwon away patios??

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The ridge weakness is not such that it will appreciably effect TD 10 track. The weakness in the ridge has more to do with its ability to sustain a rapidly intensifying system in 2 days rather than 3 or 4; the tracking is rudimentary and not subject to debate.

The folks in the southeastern most Bahamas can feel a little more optimistic that a major hurricane for their area is not highly likely. There is even some chance that people residing points to the immediate west of the sotheastern Bahamas can also feel more optimistic that a major hurricane in that region is by no means etched into proverbial stone. Certainly the possibility exists that this system will continue to only improve marginally for the next 3 or 4 days.

After that, the ridge becomes reinforced by the continental ridge that works its way into the SE conus. This ridge is setting up to entrench powerfully according to the GFS and many other models. The EURO is calling for a recurvature possibility, but should soon be updated to current.

Points north of West Palm Beach or more exactly, Daytona Beach, have some reason to be a little more optimistic for 2 reasons; 1) TD 10 looks to become stronger only marginally over the next 3 days, which increases the likelihood of it not being at highest intensity IF it made it that far north; 2) TD 10 will unlikely make it that far north, and if it does, it would only occur if all the models were wrong. It's a little complicated, but that too would bode very well for points north of Daytona.

Day 4 looks extremely ominous this hour, however, before presenting my forecast I want to recheck all the data. I have yet to see the 18Z, and I'd like to take a look at that before my presentation.

4 or 5 days ago, it looked like the S.E. Bahamas were in danger. That threat is diminishing considerably IMO, due to today's lackluster ridge; furthermore, the ridge looks to be lackluster for at least 3 more days, but the NHC indicates the ridge will strengthen sooner than that. There is no reason to believe that a major hurricane will impact the Bahamas. Hopefully, this will come as good news? Anything more than that is outside the scope of this discussion.

[rockyman]

The ridge weakness is not such that it will appreciably effect TD 10 track. The weakness in the ridge has more to do with its ability to sustain a rapidly intensifying system in 2 days rather than 3 or 4; the tracking is rudimentary and not subject to debate.

The folks in the southeastern most Bahamas can feel a little more optimistic that a major hurricane for their area is not highly likely. There is even some chance that people residing points to the immediate west of the sotheastern Bahamas can also feel more optimistic that a major hurricane in that region is by no means etched into proverbial stone. Certainly the possibility exists that this system will continue to only improve marginally for the next 3 or 4 days.

After that, the ridge becomes reinforced by the continental ridge that works its way into the SE conus. This ridge is setting up to entrench powerfully according to the GFS and many other models. The EURO is calling for a recurvature possibility, but should soon be updated to current.

Points north of West Palm Beach or more exactly, Daytona Beach, have some reason to be a little more optimistic for 2 reasons; 1) TD 10 looks to become stronger only marginally over the next 3 days, which increases the likelihood of it not being at highest intensity IF it made it that far north; 2) TD 10 will unlikely make it that far north, and if it does, it would only occur if all the models were wrong. It's a little complicated, but that too would bode very well for points north of Daytona.

Day 4 looks extremely ominous this hour, however, before presenting my forecast I want to recheck all the data. I have yet to see the 18Z, and I'd like to take a look at that before my presentation.

4 or 5 days ago, it looked like the S.E. Bahamas were in danger. That threat is diminishing considerably IMO, due to today's lackluster ridge; furthermore, the ridge looks to be lackluster for at least 3 more days, but the NHC indicates the ridge will strengthen sooner than that. There is no reason to believe that a major hurricane will impact the Bahamas. Hopefully, this will come as good news? Anything more than that is outside the scope of this discussion.

PLEASE, MODERATORS! This poster has been warned repeatedly to put the disclaimer on his/her forecasts and he/she simply REFUSES to do it...Anyone who can issue a page-long dissertation on the tropics can certainly figure out how to cut and paste. Unless, of course, this is not a "forecast"...I think any post which tells specific areas that they are in "danger" and other specific areas that they can be "more optimistic" that a major hurricane is "not likely" is a FORECAST and should have the disclaimer...if I'm the nut here, just let me know...it wouldn't be the first time.

[Bocadude85]

Even in Boca Raton during Frances and not so much jeanne there were reports on the radio of 75mph winds for a short period of time

[artist]

fci - yep - it did get bad in Palm Beach county. on Singer Island the tallest condo lost parts of its facade, most of the docks were damaged or gone. Some of the mansions on Palm Beach suffered severe damage.
In our area north of there - lines down everywhere, debrise scattered all over, homes lost their roofs, ceilings fell in, trees everywhere down, or totally stripped, enclosures totally gone, sides of homes stripped. I could go on and on. Thank goodness we were on the south end of the storms.

Streets were under water as well (edited to add this)

[Scorpion]

IF the county experienced Category 3 winds or higher it would be in shambles. Most of the condos would also likely be blown out.

[elysium]

The 18Z is slow. Will have a better chance to present unofficial forecast when 18 gets into days 6 and 7. The main problem is that it is hard to tell whether the 18 will speed up the trough or slow it down. Also, without the full 18Z, it's tough to have any idea about the forward speed of TD 10.

As for satellite imagery presentation, TD 10 has never looked better. This is partly because TD 10 has never looked really good, but that is beginning to change per satellite review.

The 18Z is only updated to 72 hrs but should soon present fully within the hour (hopefully).

[FritzPaul]

The ridge weakness is not such that it will appreciably effect TD 10 track. The weakness in the ridge has more to do with its ability to sustain a rapidly intensifying system in 2 days rather than 3 or 4; the tracking is rudimentary and not subject to debate.

The folks in the southeastern most Bahamas can feel a little more optimistic that a major hurricane for their area is not highly likely. There is even some chance that people residing points to the immediate west of the sotheastern Bahamas can also feel more optimistic that a major hurricane in that region is by no means etched into proverbial stone. Certainly the possibility exists that this system will continue to only improve marginally for the next 3 or 4 days.

After that, the ridge becomes reinforced by the continental ridge that works its way into the SE conus. This ridge is setting up to entrench powerfully according to the GFS and many other models. The EURO is calling for a recurvature possibility, but should soon be updated to current.

Points north of West Palm Beach or more exactly, Daytona Beach, have some reason to be a little more optimistic for 2 reasons; 1) TD 10 looks to become stronger only marginally over the next 3 days, which increases the likelihood of it not being at highest intensity IF it made it that far north; 2) TD 10 will unlikely make it that far north, and if it does, it would only occur if all the models were wrong. It's a little complicated, but that too would bode very well for points north of Daytona.

Day 4 looks extremely ominous this hour, however, before presenting my forecast I want to recheck all the data. I have yet to see the 18Z, and I'd like to take a look at that before my presentation.

4 or 5 days ago, it looked like the S.E. Bahamas were in danger. That threat is diminishing considerably IMO, due to today's lackluster ridge; furthermore, the ridge looks to be lackluster for at least 3 more days, but the NHC indicates the ridge will strengthen sooner than that. There is no reason to believe that a major hurricane will impact the Bahamas. Hopefully, this will come as good news? Anything more than that is outside the scope of this discussion.

I thought you learned your lesson the other night. You need to stop with these silly "forecasts". Everytime you post a "forecast" you give away your ignorance @ hurricanes.

My best guess is the track is not up for debate because you don't know enough about hurricanes to say what the track will be. Just because you don't know doesn't mean it's not debateable. The contrary is true. It's very debateable: You might learn something.

Your analysis about the high in the first paragraph is 100% wrong. The weakness in the ridge has a lot to do with the storm track.

[jujubean]

Lets not ignore the "ridge expected to build back westward across the FL peninsula monday-wednesday".

If the system is NE of the Bahamas by Sunday-Monday...and the ridge builds back westward...then...?

It still remains away from Florida by waiting for a trough to pick it up.
Oh, there are historical cases where a system has taken a hard left and gone under the ridge right into Florida but it is the rare exception.
Generally, they turn before the Bahamas and head up north and generally northeast. Sometimes we get protected and then the NC area gets sideswiped.
But a direct left turn?
Unususal and extremely doubtful...

Off the exact subject a little; sea surface temps have now hit 90 off of SE Florida; a virtual timber-box for a storm to explode. We down here need to hope that systems get shunted off because if one comes cruising this way, it is gonna explode. These high sea surface temps are fueling the hot days and nights we are getting here and Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out so when one gets nearby..... watch out......!!!!

this might seem like a silly question but I was wondering statisticly speaking how unusual is it for a tropical system to ride under the ridge or bermuda high and head into florida....how many times has that actually happened?

[Recurve]

Jujubean, we need one of the excellent statisticians here to give a comprehensive answer.
But it happens, sometimes with the bad ones. Andrew is the classic example -- beeline straight west, trapped by a strong ridge. Other tracks that impact Florida are caused by recurvature in the Gulf or Caribbean. Some storms that have impacted Miami came straight across, no weakness or trough to let them move northward. There have also been Florida impacts from storms that went northward but then got turned back around, like Betsy (1965).

You can use the NOAA historical tracks page to check out your area and tracks for different months:

http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Click where it says "Query storm tracks"

[elysium]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The speed of the trough may factor significantly, along with the forward speed of TD 10 on day 4 and 5. If the trough is faster than NO GAPS and MM5 are depicting, it may only have minimal effect on track. In situations such as the day 5 scenario depicted by the navy models, systems like TD 10 often behave like Hurricane Floyd and Isabel. Of course, those storms happened to landfall on the mid-Atlantic coast. However, if you remember, both of those storms were impacted by multiple troughs, and both slowed down considerable before turning.

Does anyone think that the sterring currents may weaken on days 5 and 6, and lead to TD 10 meandering in place or drifting slowly? Is it rare to have strong troughs making it down to TD 10's low latitude with enough energy to recurve the system without first causing it to slow or drift? In August? If TD 10 does in fact only slowdown or meander in response to the trough, what happens shortly thereafter? does another trough come along? or, does the ridge build over TD 10's top, and if so, what does that mean for future course heading on days 6 and 7? Is there another trough right behind this one that can dislodge TD 10 and recurve it or, as in the case of both Floyd and Isabel, cause TD 10 to head more northwesterly? Or does the ridge entrench and build in over the stranded stystem's top, blocking this more northwesterly possibility? How long does the ridge stay in place? Long enough to drive TD 10 into the GOM?

Before issuing my unofficial forecast, I will need the answers to almost every one of those questions. In particular, I will need to know whether weak steering currents on day 5 and 6 will lead to TD 10's slowing down of forward speed or a possible slow drift, enabling the ridge to build in before the trough can lift TD 10 out. Knowing the answer to that question alone will greatly assist in providing a more accurate assessment of the situation as I prepare and deliver my unofficial forecast. All answers to any or all of these questions will be greatly appreciated.

[jrod]

Almost every computer model I've seen shows this dissapating even more. Here are two easy to read ones from the navy: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

I am going to go with the models on this one and say that whats left of TD 10 is dying and wont regenerate. It should be noted that I am terrible at making forecast calls and the ECMWF model shows a low of the Florida coast in about 144 hours.

[Recurve]

GFS forecast for Sunday -- quite a trough there, serious gap in the Atlantic high for a system (which this model isn't seeing) to ride up north:





Disclaimer: This is not a forecast, only a reference to a model run run for folks to see.

[jrod]

That is one heck of trough for this time of the year. If it holds true or even close to true, if roTD10 is still around, there is no way it will make it past that.