TD 10...Back Again

[jabber]

Everybody is so quick to write former TD10 off... I will wait till the morning. If there has been a trend this seasons, its persistence. Once these swirls get going, be it naked or not, they seem to go on and on until the right opportunity for development presents itself. Lets see what the morning brings.

[Sanibel]

I'm still reading a weak half-exposed spiral at 275*

[StormWarning1]

Totally exposed is more like it

[clfenwi]

00Z guidance

WHXX01 KWBC 180025
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050818 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050818 0000 050818 1200 050819 0000 050819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 57.5W 18.6N 59.5W 19.6N 61.5W 20.4N 63.4W
BAMM 17.6N 57.5W 18.7N 59.8W 19.9N 62.0W 21.0N 64.1W
A98E 17.6N 57.5W 18.5N 59.5W 19.9N 61.5W 21.6N 63.6W
LBAR 17.6N 57.5W 18.9N 59.5W 20.3N 61.3W 21.6N 63.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050820 0000 050821 0000 050822 0000 050823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.1N 65.1W 21.8N 68.2W 21.8N 70.7W 21.6N 73.1W
BAMM 21.9N 65.8W 22.9N 69.0W 23.3N 71.4W 23.9N 73.5W
A98E 23.1N 66.0W 25.4N 70.9W 26.3N 74.4W 26.7N 75.5W
LBAR 22.6N 64.8W 23.8N 68.2W 24.6N 71.8W 25.3N 74.7W
SHIP 44KTS 54KTS 61KTS 65KTS
DSHP 44KTS 54KTS 61KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.6N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gkrangers]

I think its funny some of you obsess over arguing the NHC motion.

[WeatherEmperor]

looks like the models have shifted ever so slightly further south at the end of the forecast period but overall they look about similar to the 18Z run.

<RICKY>

[sweetpea]

I am not sure if I am asking this in the right place and I am sorry for the ignorant question. How many NM are there between points? Like 74 W and 75 West? Is it the same North? Thanks for any responses.
Debbie

[gkrangers]

I am not sure if I am asking this in the right place and I am sorry for the ignorant question. How many NM are there between points? Like 74 W and 75 West? Is it the same North? Thanks for any responses.
Debbie

Roughly 60NM. You'll get a fair estimate using 60NM.

[sweetpea]

Thanks gk.

[clfenwi]

I am not sure if I am asking this in the right place and I am sorry for the ignorant question. How many NM are there between points? Like 74 W and 75 West? Is it the same North? Thanks for any responses.
Debbie

Depends on where the points are relative to the equator.

At the equator, it is the same as latitude: 1° = 60 nm.

However, as you head north or south from the equator, the distance shrinks.

The conversion factor is the cosine of the latitude. For example, for 20° latitude , cos(20) ~= .9397 .9397* 60 = 56.3 . So at 20° latitude 1 ° longitude = 56.3 nm ...

For the tropics, the conversion factor doesn't take much off, so 60 nautical miles is a reasonable approximation if you don't have a calculator or trig table handy. However, as you head further north or south from the equator, the differences become significant.

hope this helps...

[sweetpea]

I am not sure if I am asking this in the right place and I am sorry for the ignorant question. How many NM are there between points? Like 74 W and 75 West? Is it the same North? Thanks for any responses.
Debbie

Depends on where the points are relative to the equator.

At the equator, it is the same as latitude: 1° = 60 nm.

However, as you head north or south from the equator, the distance shrinks.

The conversion factor is the cosine of the latitude. For example, for 20° latitude , cos(20) ~= .9397 .9397* 60 = 56.3 . So at 20° latitude 1 ° longitude = 56.3 nm ...

For the tropics, the conversion factor doesn't take much off, so 60 nautical miles is a reasonable approximation if you don't have a calculator or trig table handy. However, as you head further north or south from the equator, the differences become significant.

hope this helps...

Thanks again -sooner or later I will get this stuff straight. Debbie

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN 10L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.2 56.6 300./ 8.9
6 17.1 57.9 265./12.5
12 17.8 58.8 308./11.5
18 18.3 60.4 286./16.2
24 19.6 61.4 324./15.8
30 20.0 62.5 291./11.2
36 20.8 63.2 315./10.4
42 21.5 64.1 310./10.7
48 22.2 65.1 307./11.6
54 22.8 65.8 310./ 8.9
60 23.3 66.7 298./ 9.8
66 23.8 67.6 297./ 9.4
72 24.2 68.4 297./ 8.9
78 24.5 69.6 282./10.6
84 24.8 70.6 290./10.3
90 25.2 71.7 287./10.3
96 25.6 72.8 293./10.4
102 26.0 73.8 293./10.5
108 26.6 74.6 305./ 8.8
114 27.1 75.5 299./ 9.2
120 27.9 76.3 314./11.3
126 28.6 77.1 312./ 9.4



18z GFDL.

[WeatherEmperor]

ex-TD10 is not looking very good right now. Maybe, just maybe its a sign that it is starting to throw in the towel. Too early to say but its possible.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Stupid shear

[senorpepr]

I am not sure if I am asking this in the right place and I am sorry for the ignorant question. How many NM are there between points? Like 74 W and 75 West? Is it the same North? Thanks for any responses.
Debbie

Depends on where the points are relative to the equator.

At the equator, it is the same as latitude: 1° = 60 nm.

However, as you head north or south from the equator, the distance shrinks.

The conversion factor is the cosine of the latitude. For example, for 20° latitude , cos(20) ~= .9397 .9397* 60 = 56.3 . So at 20° latitude 1 ° longitude = 56.3 nm ...

For the tropics, the conversion factor doesn't take much off, so 60 nautical miles is a reasonable approximation if you don't have a calculator or trig table handy. However, as you head further north or south from the equator, the differences become significant.

hope this helps...

Wow... I knew the day that people started using cosine in their post was going to be a strange day indeed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah stupid shear. But the fact is it is not very strong. The SAL burst coming at it at full speed to the east will get it by tomarrow. Bye tropical depression 10 you did well in also you looked better then Alison,Arlene, in countless others. Rest my friend...

[Scorpion]

Its not dead yet

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also quickscat shown it had 40 knot winds at a few point in its life. Do you trust the quickscat data? In for a sheared system is the weakness of the t numbers.

But its over because once that SAL burst gets to it by 24 hours. Its going to open up.


I say a it would be a good idea to place a standard like this on tropical cyclones. Because it would get raid of alot of mess.

Depression should be changed to a well defined LLC with a developing Cdo. 1/3 banding. 30 to 50 mph winds.

Tropical storm developed Cdo 50 mph winds. 2/3s banding.

Hurricane Developed Cdo with some reds near the core. Full Banding with close eye developing. 75 mph winds.

Jokeing!

Then I don't went to see any more sheared systems upgraded. I say good luck to me.

[sweetpea]

I am not sure if I am asking this in the right place and I am sorry for the ignorant question. How many NM are there between points? Like 74 W and 75 West? Is it the same North? Thanks for any responses.
Debbie

Depends on where the points are relative to the equator.

At the equator, it is the same as latitude: 1° = 60 nm.

However, as you head north or south from the equator, the distance shrinks.

The conversion factor is the cosine of the latitude. For example, for 20° latitude , cos(20) ~= .9397 .9397* 60 = 56.3 . So at 20° latitude 1 ° longitude = 56.3 nm ...

For the tropics, the conversion factor doesn't take much off, so 60 nautical miles is a reasonable approximation if you don't have a calculator or trig table handy. However, as you head further north or south from the equator, the differences become significant.

hope this helps...

Wow... I knew the day that people started using cosine in their post was going to be a strange day indeed.

OK my next question. What is cosine? I tried to look in a weather glossary before I asked and couldn't find it.

I just realized it wouldn't be in a weather glossary but it is more of a mathematical term, right?

Debbie

[gkrangers]

Are you on drugs ?

In two hours when a little thunderstorm develops near the center, you'll be jumping for joy again.