Jose on the way?

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dixiebreeze
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Jose on the way?

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:25 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:28 am

No not a chance it will be upgraded now. Yes it has a LLC but it has become disorganized over the last 12 hours. In this system is not nearly as strong as it was a day or so ago. So NO we will not have Jose or a depression for that matter. It is also unfavable for tropical cyclone development at this moment.
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:35 am

I think Jose is on the way. Probably by Thursday afternoon.
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:37 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 17 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
1. FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 18/1800Z A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0110A INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 18/1200Z C. 19/0000Z
D. 19.2N 61.2W D. 20.4N 63.4W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2130Z E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUED 12 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REDEVLOPS AND IS A THREAT.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:37 am

This thing is going to have to form a cdo with banding. With a very well defined LLC for that to a happen. O yeah recon going in today good they can check it out. We shall see.

It looks pretty sick to me right now.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:44 am

On a more serious note the quickscats are showing that the LLC has become weaker.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html
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DoctorHurricane2003

#7 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:47 am

Matt....CDOs do NOT form until you have around 65 MPH + winds...depressions do not have them...and one more thing, the thunderstorms have increased during the night.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:49 am

I understand that very well.
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:59 am

Flaring can only mean strengthening...
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#10 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:05 am

We'll just have to see if this convection persists this morning.
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#11 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:07 am

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Matt....CDOs do NOT form until you have around 65 MPH + winds...depressions do not have them...and one more thing, the thunderstorms have increased during the night.


Thank you, DoctorHurricane. Convection has flared overnight and I expect it will continue to increase given that #10 is getting closer to favorable SSTs and less shear.
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#12 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:07 am

I think the surface pattern is strengthening and pulling towards the center stronger now...
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#13 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:11 am

Updated model plots are getting very interesting -- watch out GOM and S. Florida:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php
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elysium

#14 Postby elysium » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:16 am

Whoever said 4 am diehards aren't occasionally rewarded?
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#15 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:22 am

Don't like the potential I'm seeing here...
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wayoutfront

#16 Postby wayoutfront » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:26 am

looks pretty good to me

for a wave

Image

it also appears 10 has just about escaped the dry air

Image
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#17 Postby storm4u » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:33 am

elysium wrote:Whoever said 4 am diehards aren't occasionally rewarded?


lol its looking pretty good now!
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#18 Postby TampaFl » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:47 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:48 am

It is still a disorganized area of convection. It been doing this for days now.
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superfly

#20 Postby superfly » Thu Aug 18, 2005 3:51 am

If the convection actually persists, it will likely gain back TD status at 11 AM.
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