Jose on the way?

[webke]

It looks like it's getting itself together this morning.

[george_r_1961]

Its got a few hurdles to overcome to regain TD status. Its undergoing shear and will continue to undergo shear for the next couple of days. Then theres the dry air.

[superfly]

Its got a few hurdles to overcome to regain TD status. Its undergoing shear and will continue to undergo shear for the next couple of days. Then theres the dry air.

The shear is still there but there is little dry air in front of it.

[george_r_1961]

I just checked the WV loop..remember we are dealing with a disorganized system. There is enough dry air IMO to inhibit development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC has become very undefined. It might even be a wave now. Take a look.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Thunder44]

The LLC has become very undefined. It might even be a wave now. Take a look.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

It's not a wave. There is still a LLC under the convection.. Take look here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Lowpressure]

The blob in the Carib looks better right now. I know it is not but it is colder and more concentrated. I think 10 will regain td status, but probably not until Friday afternoon. SE may have a late weekend TS approaching.

[Huckster]

The LLC has become very undefined. It might even be a wave now. Take a look.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180927
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE...LOCATED ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT NEAR OR TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

[mike815]

This storm is well on its way to getting its depresion status back. I belive it will be JOSE. Models shifted way south this morn interesting. I think td this afternoon after thr hurricane hunters investigate. Its envirnment is much less hostile. This system sure has been a fighter.

[jrod]

No way Jose!!!

At leat not anytime soon. While the storm looks better this AM on satellite, it still doesn't look like a cyclone. Recon is suppose to b there today, that should let us all know whats going on.

[WindRunner]

If/when they do anything, it'll be at 5 with recon unless there are drastic changes on the sat over the next 3-4hrs.

[BamaMan]

If 10 does get it's act together, even though models are far out, GOM is starting to look like a real possibility

[KatDaddy]

Still to far out to think GOM. With the unseasonable strong cold front headed SE to near FLA in the upcoming days it may very well be pulled NE and never make the GOM. If it does make it past the frontal effects and into the GOM then look out. This front and attended trough is why Joe B thought Carolina's yesterday. One caveat is this is August and not October. The front will likely stall and may not have much effect on upper level steering.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think just like accuweather counterpoint said yesterday that it already meets the requirements of a depression. Hate to say it but I think the NHC has the best grip on this systems path. And that is mostlikely a fish. The trough is suppose to be pretty strong for this time of year but in some cases that can open up the tropics. Models have no clue until it is initialized. Once it is classified I think it will head poleward. My guess is as good as the models right now.

[gatorcane]

Jose may be on the way to FL

[WeatherEmperor]

Jose may be on the way to FL

aww now why did you have to say somethng like that?

<RICKY>

[ThunderMate]

No i don't see Florida with the southern cold fron tmaking its way south. If a landfall happens it will probably be a Carolina storm. I just don't see a florida hit or GOM with these tracks. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

[Blown Away]

It is looking better and better with each frame!! It's getting its act together and going to move through the Hebert Box. I think we have a player! Shear has lessoned! Prediction: TD at 5pm!!

[ThunderMate]

Look at him now!! http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... T=1km_zoom