TD 10...Back Again

[Thunder44]

597
ABNT20 KNHC 180927
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT NEAR OR TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
INTERESTS AROUND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Deenac813]

It sure is interesting to read the back & forth that happens here over night. I kept reading the system looks bad etc and then I look at Satellite and it looks pretty good. I guess it is another wait & see day!

[jabber]

It sure is interesting to read the back & forth that happens here over night. I kept reading the system looks bad etc and then I look at Satellite and it looks pretty good. I guess it is another wait & see day!

Yes , lets see what the day brings. TPC seems pretty keen on the idea of development. Lets see if the shear relaxes a bit today.

[abajan]

It's looking quite good this morning. When recon goes in this afternoon, it should find a reborn TD 10.

That system isn't dead - Not by a longshot.

[wxman57]

A question for the pros on storm2k. The quickscats shown a area of 40 knot winds with this system. In also I heard if the system is sheared that the t numbers don't do that good. Is that true? Thanks.

Also 1995 had its weak storms to. One or two of them mean alot this year.

Matt,

The latest quickscat was from 0928Z yesterday morning. This morning's quickscat isn't in yet, and yesterday aftenroon's pass missed. BUt to answer your question, the numbers are what they are, sheared or not. I do not see any 40kt winds in the last pass about 24 hours ago, however. The highest uncontaminated wind estimate is 25 kts. You cannot use the black barbs because those are likely "rain-contaminated", meaning there are clouds there and the wind estimate may be for a point well above the surface.

[KatDaddy]

I must chime in this morning. Ex-TD10 is lookingmuch better this morning with the nice feederband developing SE through NE of the center.
In addition deep convection beginning just to the N of the LLC. This could be the true awakening this time around.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I must chime in this morning. Ex-TD10 is lookingmuch better this morning with the nice feederband developing SE through NE of the center.
In addition deep convection beginning just to the N of the LLC. This could be the true awakening this time around.

Agree the shear has abated big time the T-Storms are not being blown off the top this morning..

[cycloneye]

A 1012 MB LOW...REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 17.5N59W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT HAS NOT REDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND A
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 120
NM RADIUS OF 18.5N58W.


The above is the 8 AM Discussion.

[DAVE440]

Water Vapor loop is interesting.

ex- TD10 looking better....

Now someone please explain what i'm seeing here. Looks like a ULL
to the NW of ex-TD10 moving westward. If so....what if any effect would
this ULL have on the course of our system?

Also whats happening to the north? I see some dry air there but
the system is coming down.... Is that a blocking high? If so...depending
on how far south it moves and the timing of any development....its possible TD10...Jose...whatever if anything...could get trapped and maintain a w or wnw movement.

Am I right on any of what Im seeing....or should I go back to meteorology101?

OOPS....forgot the link....heres the water vapor image I was lookin at...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[Deenac813]

This "thing" is headed right for the Hebert box.

[gatorcane]

where is the Herbert box?

[cycloneye]

where is the Herbert box?

20.0n-60.0w.

[Marilyn]

What is the Herbert Box??

[wxman57]

I can't really find the center this morning. My initial impression was it could be way up at 19N/61.5W. But it could be down near 18.5N/59.7W. Cirrus is obscuring the low-level cloud elements. Could be it's gone, too, but more likely just hidden. If it's down near 19N, then it's not looking too healthy this morning with all the convection to the northwest moving away.

As for the model guidance this morning, note that the dynamic models are beginning to show a turn when it reaches the Bahamas, but the static BAM models show continued westward motion. I would remind you that the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics, as they perform horribly in a changing environment. This is evident in their performance with Franklin a few weeks ago:

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_05072118.png">

[jabber]

I can't really find the center this morning. My initial impression was it could be way up at 19N/61.5W. But it could be down near 18.5N/59.7W. Cirrus is obscuring the low-level cloud elements. Could be it's gone, too, but more likely just hidden. If it's down near 19N, then it's not looking too healthy this morning with all the convection to the northwest moving away.

As for the model guidance this morning, note that the dynamic models are beginning to show a turn when it reaches the Bahamas, but the static BAM models show continued westward motion. I would remind you that the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics, as they perform horribly in a changing environment. This is evident in their performance with Franklin a few weeks ago:

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_05072118.png">

I think you have the wrong system charted.....

[jabber]

I can't really find the center this morning. My initial impression was it could be way up at 19N/61.5W. But it could be down near 18.5N/59.7W. Cirrus is obscuring the low-level cloud elements. Could be it's gone, too, but more likely just hidden. If it's down near 19N, then it's not looking too healthy this morning with all the convection to the northwest moving away.

As for the model guidance this morning, note that the dynamic models are beginning to show a turn when it reaches the Bahamas, but the static BAM models show continued westward motion. I would remind you that the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics, as they perform horribly in a changing environment. This is evident in their performance with Franklin a few weeks ago:

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_05072118.png">

I think you have the wrong system charted.....

Never mind , this is what you are showing was franklin..... sorry

[Derek Ortt]

I am also having problems finding a closed low this morning. Shear is strong and out of the west

[fci]

I can't really find the center this morning. My initial impression was it could be way up at 19N/61.5W. But it could be down near 18.5N/59.7W. Cirrus is obscuring the low-level cloud elements. Could be it's gone, too, but more likely just hidden. If it's down near 19N, then it's not looking too healthy this morning with all the convection to the northwest moving away.

As for the model guidance this morning, note that the dynamic models are beginning to show a turn when it reaches the Bahamas, but the static BAM models show continued westward motion. I would remind you that the BAM models should not be used out of the deep tropics, as they perform horribly in a changing environment. This is evident in their performance with Franklin a few weeks ago:

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL06_05072118.png">

wxman57:
I'm confused.
I see the model plot above (AL06) showing the turn at the Bahamas from 25/75 but when I look at the Current TPC/NHC Model Plots from Weathernet (sorry I can't paste it here; not sure how to do it although I see them all the time!); they show a west movement almost through the Fl Straits never even reaching 25/75.
Which one is the correct current plot?

Thanks for your guidance!

[rockyman]

Here's the map for ex-TD 10

[wxman57]

It does appear as though there may be a significant trof along the east U.S. coast as "Jose" approaches late in the weekend/early next week. That trof could well steer "Jose" off to the north before it reaches the east coast. No guarantee of that yet, though. Just don't pay much attention to the non-dynamic BAM models now. Look at the dynamic models.

Oh, and I asked a coworker where he thought the center was today, he guessed 19N/59.5W. So that's 3 different estimates. Could well be it's nowhere or it's too broad to identify. I think it may be reforming north and west in the leading mass of convection.