Jose on the way?

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gatorcane
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#41 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:15 am

aww now why did you have to say somethng like that?


Maybe he didn't hear me :P
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#42 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:18 am

Dvorak is not impressed. Still gives it 1.0 T number this morning.
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#43 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:35 am

Have to admit the visible and convection is looking rather impressive this AM.. Persistent has been a problem..if it maintains till 5pm..TD 10 might be back in the saddle..

Actually Recon looks to be flying this time..

They may start mentioning the "disturbed" weather in the central and western Caribbean today in the outlook as well..

Paul
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#44 Postby beachbum_al » Thu Aug 18, 2005 7:39 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Updated model plots are getting very interesting -- watch out GOM and S. Florida:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php


Don't say that. Especially S. Florida and GOM. I haven't been watching the tropics like I was. Not that I have lost interest but I went back to work and I have been exhausted!
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#45 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:08 am

I don't see any LLC anymore like yesterday morning. Don't think this will be upgraded until, if at all, until recon finds a LLC. Granted, convection does loook much better this morning.
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#46 Postby wayoutfront » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:08 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It is still a disorganized area of convection. It been doing this for days now.


perhaps thats why they call it a " wave"
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#47 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:09 am

chris_fit wrote:I don't see any LLC anymore like yesterday morning. Don't think this will be upgraded until, if at all, until recon finds a LLC. Granted, convection does loook much better this morning.


I agree. I dont think the NHC would have upgraded it anyways without a recon having gone in there to check it out.

<RICKY>
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#48 Postby Recurve » Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:40 am

From what I see, most of the models this morning do not show the system developing. The Aug 18 06z GFDL has a very small low moving toward the Bahamas, and then it blows away into a trough coming off the East Coast at hour 114.
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#49 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:01 am

Looks like it's being impacted by westerly shear again, doesn't look good for TS today. It could still be a TD though.
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#50 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:11 am

This thing has not had a very happy life. Undergoing constant shear. I sure hope he doesnt end up retaliating later on when he does find favorable conditions by blowing up into a major 'cane.

<RICKY>
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#51 Postby BRADGPSL-FL » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:24 am

i believe we could see a major storm as this thing approaches the florida straights and starts to spin in the warm waters.
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#52 Postby Patrick99 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:33 am

I don't think it looks that bad at all this morning, considering what it's been through.

The Caribbean is looking a little suspicious. I wouldn't be surprised to see something get going down there.
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#53 Postby BRADGPSL-FL » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:42 am

i noticed a lot of activity going on in the Caribbean this morning my self
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#54 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:01 am

MODEL UPDATE THURS. MORNING. Right through the Fla. Straits and into the SW GOM. Welcome Jose:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php
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#55 Postby dwg71 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:11 am

dixiebreeze wrote:MODEL UPDATE THURS. MORNING. Right through the Fla. Straits and into the SW GOM. Welcome Jose:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php


I think you meant SE Gulf... still all we need is a storm to go with these model runs.
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#56 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:12 am

dwg71 wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:MODEL UPDATE THURS. MORNING. Right through the Fla. Straits and into the SW GOM. Welcome Jose:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td10.php


I think you meant SE Gulf... still all we need is a storm to go with these model runs.


Yes, SE GOM. Thanks for catch! :)
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#57 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:14 am

That would be the SE GOM, but I doubt it. 10L is getting sheared to death again as another ULL in the trough peddles SW to ITS NW. I'm not ruling out development, but I don't understand why the NHC doesn't see the shear and is abysmal at forecasting it from hour to hour. Just don't understand why they keep saying "may become more favorable" every day for the past week, yet there the trough sits, proiducing a hostile environment. Getting tired of watching this. Time to move on.
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#58 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:22 am

JOSE NO WAY! We'll be saying that across all of S. Florida this weekend :eek:
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#59 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:27 am

well before we all get excited here some interesting developments have been occuring. TD10 does not look very good at all this morning on visible satellite and could be on its last breath. A low level circulation is no longer evident.

<RICKY>
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#60 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:31 am

One buoy to the south of this system is reporting ESE winds. If there is an LLC it's very weak and tiny.
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