TD 10...Back Again

#761 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:54 am

ya, i cant track a low anymore...i do think one will develop again, but im not sure in time for recon to find one

jabber · #762 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 9:59 am

ivanhater wrote:ya, i cant track a low anymore...i do think one will develop again, but im not sure in time for recon to find one

Think this might have been the last chance. At least the last couple days after the convection died (blown) off, we had a LLC to see. Now I cannot even see that. My guess is former TD is now gone for good.

#763 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:12 am

NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 18 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 191100Z TO 20/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0410A CYCLONE
C. 19/1600Z C. 20/0400Z
D. 20.0N 65.5W D. 21.5N 67.0W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2130Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLY START 6 HRLY
FIXES AT 20/1800Z.

Tentative missions in the comming days are planned but will eventually they will go?

jabber · #764 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:13 am

cycloneye wrote:NOUS42 KNHC 181500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 18 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 191100Z TO 20/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-082

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (REMNANTS OF TD 10)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0310A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0410A CYCLONE
C. 19/1600Z C. 20/0400Z
D. 20.0N 65.5W D. 21.5N 67.0W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2130Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLY START 6 HRLY
FIXES AT 20/1800Z.

Tentative missions in the comming days are planned but will eventually they will go?

I doubt it... Looks like a waste of a flight today.

#765 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:19 am

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM IRENE...WHICH IS LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LESS DEFINED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS MAY STILL
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

Frank2 · #766 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:23 am

Yes, I agree with the TWO - former TD10 seems to have finally lost it's low-level circulation.

Frank

#767 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:24 am

It could be throwing in the towel right about now.

<RICKY>

TS Zack · #768 Postby **TS Zack** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:08 am

Look at the latest visible from NRL... Looks good to me!

#769 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:10 am

ugh, its firing again! its ticking me off!! lol

chris_fit · #770 Postby **chris_fit** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:22 am

Nice little blob, nice long comma feature.

jabber · #771 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:30 am

ivanhater wrote:ugh, its firing again! its ticking me off!! lol

Its taunting us.... bad storm. :grrr:

#772 Postby **Deenac813** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:31 am

ivanhater wrote:ugh, its firing again! its ticking me off!! lol

It does not want recon to waste a trip! :lol:

frederic79 · #773 Postby **frederic79** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:32 am

I'm probably staring at the latest visibles too long but it appears that under the sheared cloud tops there is still a LLC around 19N and 59.5W moving basically west. If you look closely in this area, you'll see low clouds moving in toward this area from the southwest. I maybe grabbing at straws with this but I'm not ready to stick a fork in it just yet.

#774 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:34 am

frederic79 wrote:I'm probably staring at the latest visibles too long but it appears that under the sheared cloud tops there is still a LLC around 19N and 59.5W moving basically west. If you look closely in this area, you'll see low clouds moving in toward this area from the southwest. I maybe grabbing at straws with this but I'm not ready to stick a fork in it just yet.

there certainly is a spin there, im not sure if its at the low levels though

jabber · #775 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:35 am

Ok... I am a bit confused. The Navy site as well as floter 1 do not match the image above. Also the time stamps are off. Is this an earlier picture?

clfenwi · #776 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:36 am

Since the previous one was about to expire, Navy issued a new TCFA:

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 181430Z AUG 05//
WTNT90 KNGU 181500
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 59.0W TO 19.0N 63.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT 18.0N 59.0W (REMNANTS
OF TD 10L SEE REF A) IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
SCATTEROMETRY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A SURFACE CIRCULATION
WITH WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THIS CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED FOR 72 HOURS.
CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHER ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASE WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST; HOWEVER,
AS THE YSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST, IT MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE AREA
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 200MB,
WEAK WIND SHEAR, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DISTURBANCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPARATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE
DATA IS 83F(28C). SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL EXPIRE, BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191500Z AUG 05.//

jabber · #777 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:37 am

TS Zack wrote:

Look at the latest visible from NRL... Looks good to me!

This is NOT the latest shot.... this is - not such a pretty site

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=AUG&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=10L.NONAME&PROD=geo&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=vis&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050818.1545.goes12.x.vis1km_high.10LNONAME.25kts-1010mb-179N-598W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/10L.NONAME/vis/geo/1km_zoom&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al102005.05081506.gif&ATCF_NAME=al102005&PRODUCT=vis&SUB_PRODUCT=geo&SUB_SUB_PRODUCT=1km_zoom

#778 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:39 am

that is an old image

#779 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:40 am

Here is a new picture.

Frank2 · #780 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 11:58 am

It looks less even less impressive in the new image...

Frank

TD 10...Back Again

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