EX TD 10 forecast

[george_r_1961]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sattelite imagery indicates a badly sheared system with abundant dry air to the north. The shear is due to an upper low to the NW of the system producing west to southwest winds over the former TD.. Since surface winds steering the system are from the east-southeast there in no chance in the short term of significant development significant development due to these winds blowing the convection away from the center. The long term prospects of this system appear bleak at this time. the UL will probably influence the system for the next 48 hours before lifting out; then the system could come under the influence of upper level SW winds ahead of a trough moving off the east coast. Since I expect little if any upper level support the low will continue to be steered WNW over the next several days by the trade winds. At this time I believe it will at best attain TS status although it may not even reach that. Another scenario is the UL gets out of the way allowing for development. This would also allow for recurvature but I am unable to say how close to the US coast it would come should this scenario happen. The first scenario I described would bring a weak tropical depression or tropical low over the Bahamas and eventually to the southeast US with little significant impact.

George Rinaldi

[Stormcenter]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sattelite imagery indicates a badly sheared system with abundant dry air to the north. The shear is due to an upper low to the NW of the system producing west to southwest winds over the former TD.. Since surface winds steering the system are from the east-southeast there in no chance in the short term of significant development significant development due to these winds blowing the convection away from the center. The long term prospects of this system appear bleak at this time. the UL will probably influence the system for the next 48 hours before lifting out; then the system could come under the influence of upper level SW winds ahead of a trough moving off the east coast. Since I expect little if any upper level support the low will continue to be steered WNW over the next several days by the trade winds. At this time I believe it will at best attain TS status although it may not even reach that. Another scenario is the UL gets out of the way allowing for development. This would also allow for recurvature but I am unable to say how close to the US coast it would come should this scenario happen. The first scenario I described would bring a weak tropical depression or tropical low over the Bahamas and eventually to the southeast US with little significant impact.

George Rinaldi

A weak TD in August over the Bahamas?!?!?!?
I don't think so.

[gatorcane]

there won't be a weak system over the bahamas....

[wxmann_91]

Why is everyone doubting that it will be weak over the Bahamas? I like George's forecast, it looks good and I pretty much agree with it. The warmest SST's doesn't matter if there is too much dry air/SAL and/or excessive shear.

[dhweather]

I think he's dead on with this.

[WindRunner]

It's certainly feasable, but it's just one of many scenarios that could happen, and the chances of any one of those happening are small because of the astounding number of factors going into the environment call. I see George's forecast to be just as likely as any other reasonable forecast at this point.

[Stormcenter]

Why is everyone doubting that it will be weak over the Bahamas? I like George's forecast, it looks good and I pretty much agree with it. The warmest SST's doesn't matter if there is too much dry air/SAL and/or excessive shear.

The warm SST's "DO" matter. As for the dry air/SAL thing well that is overrated big time. The shear thing is a different story but I don't anticpate it to be an issue. Anyway we are talking 3-4 days here "IF" it makes it that far.

[george_r_1961]

Why is everyone doubting that it will be weak over the Bahamas? I like George's forecast, it looks good and I pretty much agree with it. The warmest SST's doesn't matter if there is too much dry air/SAL and/or excessive shear.

The warm SST's "DO" matter. As for the dry air/SAL thing well that is overrated big time. The shear thing is a different story but I don't anticpate it to be an issue. Anyway we are talking 3-4 days here "IF" it makes it that far.

You can have boiling SST's and if theres dry air you wont get a storm.

[Aquawind]

Why is everyone doubting that it will be weak over the Bahamas? I like George's forecast, it looks good and I pretty much agree with it. The warmest SST's doesn't matter if there is too much dry air/SAL and/or excessive shear.

The warm SST's "DO" matter. As for the dry air/SAL thing well that is overrated big time. The shear thing is a different story but I don't anticpate it to be an issue. Anyway we are talking 3-4 days here "IF" it makes it that far.

From NHC FAQ..

The SAL has been shown to have significant negative impact on tropical cyclone intensity.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A17.html


Dry air is a no brainer of course it has an effect..


Paul

[piedmont2]

What is this SAL stuff everyone is talking about?

[Aquawind]

What is this SAL stuff everyone is talking about?

Read the link I posted above....

Paul

[Lindaloo]

I think he's dead on with this.

I second it.

[EDR1222]

Sounds like a good forecast to me as well.

[piedmont2]

I think he's dead on with this.

I second it.

I agree.