Will Dr. Gray's numbers go down in September ?

[dhweather]

Will Dr. Gray's numbers go down in September ?

Climatology vs. SAL

We should be approaching the peak of activity for any given hurricane season.

The SAL has been persistently wreaking havoc on waves as they move
across the Atlantic, and shows few signs of letting up.

The MJO is becoming more favorable.

So a quick straw poll - what do you think. Feel free to comment on your thoughts!

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not sure. I think he predicted 4-5 named storms for August and so far we have had 2. It certainly is possible to have another 2 more named storms before the end of the month but its tough to say.

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

yes

If he uped his numbers because of an active July, he will lower his number because of a quiet August. Of course this is assuming that only 1 or 2 more storms at most form this month. If it suddenly starts getting active again well then forget about it.

[wxwatcher91]

hey! where's the "maybe" option???

[dwg71]

I voted he will lower his numbers, especially if we dont see a flair up in the next week. We have till the 27th of August to get jose or we will be 3 full storms behind 1995 pace.

[RU4REAL]

I say no, he want lower his numbers, looking at the coast the dry air is almost gone, moist air is building in and will make much better conditions.
I think when the wave that's on the coast now emerges, you can pretty much look for a lift in activity. IMO

[WindRunner]

It's all dependent on the next two weeks. If we have just 2-3 storms, than no (how I voted). If the shear keeps ripping up great-looking waves, than I wouldn't be surprised by a lowering of the numbers.

[Frank2]

I think he will - since Emily, the season has shown only a modest amount of activity - nothing like the dramatic statistics given before the season began.

When you consider that Dennis made landfall way back on 7/10, and Emily on 7/20, and with September less than two weeks away, it's becoming less likely (though certainly still possible) that the season will be as busy as he or others had forecast.

Some may disagree, but, if I'm not mistaken, end of season statistics will show that most Atlantic hurricane seasons end (activity-wise) after late September or early October, with only a small number ending during the mid-October to November period, so, it's very possible that the season only has about another 6-7 weeks of activity remaining - with a long way to go to prove their forecasts correct.

Frank

[Jim Hughes]

Im not sure. I think he predicted 4-5 named storms for August and so far we have had 2. It certainly is possible to have another 2 more named storms before the end of the month but its tough to say.

<RICKY>

Dr. Gray said that there would be five named storms, three hurricanes, one intense. Harvey was already present when he made this forecast. So only one of the four has showed up for the big dance so far.

His outlook would have been very hard to reach if Irene had not finally made it to hurricane strength. He still has plenty of time though.


Jim

[LarryWx]

Some may disagree, but, if I'm not mistaken, end of season statistics will show that most Atlantic hurricane seasons end (activity-wise) after late September or early October, with only a small number ending during the mid-October to November period, so, it's very possible that the season only has about another 6-7 weeks of activity remaining - with a long way to go to prove their forecasts correct.

Frank

I agree that the bulk of the season (~90%) is over by ~10/15 in terms of # NS on average. However, on the same token, only 3 NS (only 30% of the total season) have formed on average through today going back to 1950. So, on average, we still have ~70% of the season to go and we're currently sitting at 300% of the normal # of NS as of 8/18 (9 vs. 3)!

The period 8/1-18, even with just 2 NS to date, is still above the 1950-2004 average, which is only ~1.3. Even when just looking at the very active 1995-2004 period EXCLUDING 1997, the period 8/1-18 has yielded only 1.7 NS. Compare this to the 8/1-31 figure of 4.3. In other words, 8/1-18 yielded only ~40% of the total AUG activity for these very active years. We've still got 60%/2.6 NS to go for the rest of AUG in that sense! Also, keep in mind that if former TD #10 were to regenerate into a NS after today, it would still count as an 8/1-18 storm for stat. purposes. So, we could still end up with THREE NS for 8/1-18, whcih would be well above average.

Regarding Dr. Gray: if he were updating as of today, I'd say using the info I just mentioned that he'd leave the # of NS about the same. Regarding his 9/1 update, it obviously depends a lot on how the rest of August goes. The Aug story is FAR from over.

I've already predicted three NS to first become a TD during 8/16-31 and am sticking with that. That would EXCLUDE ex-TD #10 should it regenerate and reach NS status being that it first became a TD on 8/13.

[Frank2]

Yes, what you mention is true, though I was also looking at the season in terms of the overall predictions made for the current year.

Since the U.S. has been fortunately to only have one landfalling hurricane so far, the season is much better (as far as the public is concerned) than predicted, though as you said, statistically the bulk of the season is still in the weeks ahead.

Frank

[ohiostorm]

No. We have alot of season to go through yet and everyone seems to think that it will be one hell of an active one.

[mascpa]

Undoubtedly he will reduce his numbers.

[mahicks]

Lol...I voted NO and expected to look like an idiot when the poll results popped up...

I was the split vote! It's Tied!!

[Trader Ron]

I believe he will lower to 18 named storms.

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree that he will not lower it a great deal, but I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lower it by some measure - the season is just not progressing as predicted (fortunately).

Frank

[cycloneye]

In my view he will lower the numbers but only by 2-3.What I will look for in his update is the reasoning for the downgrade in other words what factors are causing him to lower the numbers.

[Frank2]

Yes - that would be interesting reading.

[dhweather]

There are no real predictors for the SAL, and it's been very active this year. For that reason, I think Dr. Gray will lower his numbers by two, maybe three.

[WindRunner]

That sounds about right, and the reasoning would be very interesting, give us something more to watch for other than the 12 things we already watch!